4 ms·

Multiply the cost of one case of diabetes ($85,200) by the marginal chance of developing the disease (18%), and divide by the number of 12oz cans consumed over

Multiply the cost of one case of diabetes ($85,200) by the marginal chance of developing the disease (18%), and divide by the number of 12oz cans consumed over that decade (2555) gives $6.00. The marginal increase is not 18%, it's 18% of the base rate.

gus_massa 9y ago
I tried to read the research article, but I'm not sure about the notation. One can of coke increase the risk a) from x% to x+18%? b) from x% to x*(1.18)%?
- viraptor 9y ago
  Neither seems reasonable. The a is definitely wrong, or 6 cans would give you diabetes guarantee, which is wrong. The b grows slower, but is still uncapped and speeds up as it grows.
  - Tomminn 9y ago
    The 18% transformation is associated with the change in risk due to a serving of coke every day for a decade. Option b) is correct.
    - gus_massa 9y ago
      I forgot to add "per day" in my comment. (I was aware of it, I just forget to write it.) So option b) is almost correct.
- systoll 9y ago
  The paper's conclusion that a can of coke per day is associated with a 'relative risk' of 1.18. That means X% -> x*(1.18)%, where X is whatever the baseline risk is. The blog introduces the result as increasing 'the likelihood of developing diabetes by 18%', which means the same thing. It then incorrectly translates this to a 'marginal chance of 18%' -- which means X% -> X+18%. And the math uses that. X%->X+18% is 'a marginal risk of 18%', or 'an increase of 18 percentage points' or 'a 0.18 increase in absolute risk'.
stephenbez 9y ago
Agreed. The base rate of getting type 2 diabetes is 11%. So if you increase your consumption of sugar sweetened beverages to one serving per day above the average, your chance of getting diabetes is now ~13%. You increase your absolute risk by 2%. So the average marginal healthcare cost is $85,200*.02 = ~$1700. I'm not sure how he goes from 1 serving per day to 2555 per decade. I would assume it would be ~3650 servings. So for every soda you drink, it would add $0.47 in additional medical costs. But the study also controls for adiposity since people with higher body fat are more likely to get diabetes and are also more likely to drink sugar sweetened beverages. If you control for that then each drink adds $0.21 in additional medical costs.
- viraptor 9y ago
  > I'm not sure how he goes from 1 serving per day to 2555 per decade. I would assume it would be ~3650 servings. 3650/30*21 = 2555 - 1 serving per work day?
  - Tomminn 9y ago
    A serving is ~3/4 of a can.
    - viraptor 9y ago
      Yeah, that makes more sense!

gus_massa 9y ago

I tried to read the research article, but I'm not sure about the notation. One can of coke increase the risk a) from x% to x+18%? b) from x% to x*(1.18)%?

viraptor 9y ago
Neither seems reasonable. The a is definitely wrong, or 6 cans would give you diabetes guarantee, which is wrong. The b grows slower, but is still uncapped and speeds up as it grows.
- Tomminn 9y ago
  The 18% transformation is associated with the change in risk due to a serving of coke every day for a decade. Option b) is correct.
  - gus_massa 9y ago
    I forgot to add "per day" in my comment. (I was aware of it, I just forget to write it.) So option b) is almost correct.
systoll 9y ago
The paper's conclusion that a can of coke per day is associated with a 'relative risk' of 1.18. That means X% -> x*(1.18)%, where X is whatever the baseline risk is. The blog introduces the result as increasing 'the likelihood of developing diabetes by 18%', which means the same thing. It then incorrectly translates this to a 'marginal chance of 18%' -- which means X% -> X+18%. And the math uses that. X%->X+18% is 'a marginal risk of 18%', or 'an increase of 18 percentage points' or 'a 0.18 increase in absolute risk'.

stephenbez 9y ago

Agreed. The base rate of getting type 2 diabetes is 11%. So if you increase your consumption of sugar sweetened beverages to one serving per day above the average, your chance of getting diabetes is now ~13%. You increase your absolute risk by 2%. So the average marginal healthcare cost is $85,200*.02 = ~$1700. I'm not sure how he goes from 1 serving per day to 2555 per decade. I would assume it would be ~3650 servings. So for every soda you drink, it would add $0.47 in additional medical costs. But the study also controls for adiposity since people with higher body fat are more likely to get diabetes and are also more likely to drink sugar sweetened beverages. If you control for that then each drink adds $0.21 in additional medical costs.

viraptor 9y ago
> I'm not sure how he goes from 1 serving per day to 2555 per decade. I would assume it would be ~3650 servings. 3650/30*21 = 2555 - 1 serving per work day?
- Tomminn 9y ago
  A serving is ~3/4 of a can.
  - viraptor 9y ago
    Yeah, that makes more sense!