All analysis takes on a 'personal tinge' - what we want to be true we judge to be true. Perhaps I'm making that mistake, but let me explain my view regarding C

All analysis takes on a 'personal tinge' - what we want to be true we judge to be true. Perhaps I'm making that mistake, but let me explain my view regarding China: 1. China's economy is headed for a slump - either a severe recession or 'lost decade'. China is taking on enormous debt to fund infrastructure projects which on the whole will not generate a good economic return. They have an overheated property market. Looking at economic history over the past 100 years, there have been few countries that have had capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP approaching China's level, and when they did it almost always ended badly. 2. But In the longer term China's economy is on track to greatly exceed the US - there's no doubt that they are following the economic path of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, etc. Military strength correlates with economic size, so before the end of this century China will be the dominant superpower [1] 3. As an Australian I'm concerned by China's rise, but I wouldn't say 'threatened'. Our economy has benefited enormously by China's economic success - mostly through the mining industry, but also education and tourism. My concern stems from a belief that open, democratic governments are much better behaved - how many of the 20th century's horrors could have been avoided by a free press and fair elections? The current superpower, the U.S., is far more open and democratic than China, and it has never had mass hysteria like the Cultural Revolution. I hope that China becomes more free and democratic as it gains strength, but if it doesn't Australia and the world will probably still be OK. Probably. [1] Curiously, the one thing that could prevent the U.S. from losing its military dominance in the long term - ie. a high immigration level - is opposed by 'conservatives' in the US.