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I've been trying my luck at tennis betting ( https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman ) and the only strategy that seems to w
by soniman 9y ago
I've been trying my luck at tennis betting ( https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman https://matchstat.com/profile/soniman ) and the only strategy that seems to work consistently is finding injured players and betting against them. Good example of an injured player is a player that limps (Andy Murray at Wimbledon this year). The computers don't watch matches so injured players can be overvalued by the models. Also, any British tennis player tends to be overvalued because the books are based in the UK. For instance there is an overweight British player named Marcus Willis that last week was a 1.01 favorite to win at a tournament in Las Vegas; he lost, apparently due to dizziness aka being fat. There are some other patterns that can be exploited but the highest return strategy has to be betting against injured favorites. However, I think that would probably require more tennis watching than I want to do. Maybe I could hire somebody on Mechanical Turk to watch tennis for me and report on players who appear to be injured or take medical time outs.
- flashman 9y agoMaybe you could find a sport where injuries are logged or can be inferred from other data? For instance if a racehorse performs far slower than its typical pace, its odds of losing the subsequent race might be higher.
- oreo81 9y agoThe whole point is that computers can't use injuries as a data point. This strategy won't work in any sport that can have the injury factor calculated by a computer.