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I am curious about the prevailing fetish for adopting a hyper critical stance towards China's growth rate. Is it just me, or does it seem that when articles are

I am curious about the prevailing fetish for adopting a hyper critical stance towards China's growth rate. Is it just me, or does it seem that when articles are posted portaying China in a positive light, the immediate tendency is to adopt a critical or skeptical stance? Of course a certain amount of skepticism is warranted, but I feel that these criticisms take on a bit more of a personal tinge, as if there is something ominous or threatening about China's growing economic influence. If you feel threatened by the idea of a China that economically dominates, I would honestly like to hear your explanation. Or if your skepticism is ideological e.g., a general belief that undemocratic societies cannot prosper economically, I'd be curious about that as well.

eradicatethots 9y ago
I feel threatened by China, because I don’t trust them. There’s not much more to it. I fear that they might abuse their power or use it to destabilize the West. There’s a lot of hatred of the Us, and I don’t want them to try and trample our norms, culture, society... things which I care about and am deeply connected to. That’s not to say they actually would do any of those things, the key point is the lack of trust, specifically trust that they would do anything to benefit us or protect us or that they care about us at all. I don’t trust them, and the specifics of what they could do to hurt us are not really something I consider (but as they become more powerful they have many more options... to the point where one day maybe we are dwarfed by them and have no ability to defend ourselves should we need to.) China is very scary to me.
- justicezyx 9y ago
  > I fear that they might abuse their power or use it to destabilize the West Totally warranted, look at what happens during cold war, and the conflicts between nations with different ideologies. The mutual-untrustness cannot be reduced in any degree.
- h8liu 9y ago
  Interesting... Chinese people also feel threatened by the West, because they don't trust you. There's not much more to it. They fear that you might abuse your power or use it to destabilize China. There's a lot of hatred of China, and they don't want you to try and trample Chinese norms, culture, society... things which they care about and are deeply connected to. That's not to say the West actually would do any of those things, the key point is the lack of trust, specifically trust that you would do anything to benefit Chinese people or protect Chinese or that you care about them at all. They don't trust you, and the specifics of what you could do to hurt them are not really something they consider (but as you, the West is already powerful, you have many more options... to the point where one day maybe be the Chinese are dwarfed again by the West, and have no ability to defend themselves should they have to.) The west is very scary to Chinese people. See how this goes?
  - eradicatethots 9y ago
    Yes I see how this goes, but I don’t see your point. I don’t agree with the conclusion that the existences of mutual distrust is proof that distrust is wrong, and I do t think you’ve provided any argument besides that. I don’t see why my distrust of China implies to people that China is not allowed to distrust me, or that I’m somehow saying that They’re unique. This is a statement of fact. This is reality. I’m not being prescriptive here. I would personally like for China to be more friendly towards the us and vice versa but I’m not sitting here saying the us is perfect or free of sin. I don’t see why the us must be perfect before I can announce what is already reality, that I distrust China. Perhaps you shouldn’t read my post as a diplomatic action, something that I just said as part of an argument to try and manipulate China or something, because that’s not what it is. It’s a statement of fact and some analysis on the cause. I’m not trying to criticize China or convince China to change, even if I would definitely like that to happen, and think it should.
    - h8liu 9y ago
      You are justifying your fear of a rising power, as if you are threatened, and you have all your rights to fear. However, the truth is that the West is still arguably more powerful, where the Chinese people are the ones that have been living in this exact kind of fear that you stated for a very very long time. If your reasoning holds as a universal value for all human beings (but not just for you), then it is effectively justifying a historically less powered entity, China, now eventually becoming free from this threat, where the world becomes more equal and multi-tenant in power, and you should happily embrace it. Maybe what you fear is not that you are threatened, but that your current way of threatening other people in the world is no more. What you fear is change. And yes, you are stating the facts: one of the ugly parts of human nature.
      - eradicatethots 9y ago
        Did you really need to call me ugly? Lol I fear a loss of security. You’re overthinking it to say I’m attached to the fact that our security comes from threats. Security is what matters, not being threatening. I think your comment is a little bit rude to be honest, but that’s not a big deal.
- landryraccoon 9y ago
  Historically, China has not interfered in the affairs of distant nations. If you are judging by history, the West has interfered with China much more, thus far, than visa versa. I would go so far as to say that China has never yet tried to destabilize the West or impose it's values on the West. Can the West make the same claim about China? As it is written, as you judge, so shall you be judged. If your standard is that countries should not abuse their power to destabilize other countries, then historically doesn't China actually hold the high ground?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - hiram112 9y ago
    China has never been able to interfere in 'distant' nations. The Europeans were the first to truly develop navies capable of projecting force at such great distances, beginning in the Renaissance period, and everyone else has been playing catch-up. By your logic, the Romans or Greeks or ancient Egyptians were a peace-loving peoples because they didn't bother China much either. But if you look at what was possible, based on the technological capabilities at the time, China has never been as peaceful as they constantly claim. Just ask any of their neighbors, many of whom have explicitly created defense pacts with the US and the West because of historical fear of an aggressive China. Note I'm not trying to say the West deserves any trust. But based on China's history and its current behavior as it does become more capable, combined with the constant Chinese PR about their 'peaceful rise', I'm not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - fsloth 9y ago
      Actually Chinese had much more capable maritime technology than europe in the 1500's but their emperor said he did not approve of such silly business as voyages of discovery so they just stopped doing that. To China's rulers, trade and profit were facets of internal politics, and not an end in themselves. "as the Confucian bureaucracy under the next emperor reversed the policy of open exploration and by 1500, it became a capital offence to build a seagoing junk with more than two masts."[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_exploration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_exploration
- fsloth 9y ago
  Maybe you should read a few books about china? You fear things you don't understand. Your writing sound like you are describing Mordor. China, on the other hand, is a country ruled and populated by real people. With a bit different values, sure.
digitalzombie 9y ago
> If you feel threatened by the idea of a China that is economically globally dominated, I would honestly like to hear your explanation. Do you not see those articles where China build artificial islands and try to enforce the China seas as if they own all of it? They bully everybody, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, etc.. They're doing this because of the oil in the area and to exert dominance. USA on the other way just want everybody to be okay cause you know USA is all about money and business. If you lock that area like China is doing USA can't really profit. I think in general I rather have USA ideology over China bullying.
- zhte415 9y ago
  > They're doing this because of the oil in the area and to exert dominance. USA on the other way just want everybody to be okay cause you know USA is all about money and business. If you lock that area like China is doing USA can't really profit. It because of a fear of missing resources that may be scarce and invaluable. Not just oil, fish too, and access to shipping lanes. This is not incompatible with US interests.
- andybak 9y ago
  On a phone right now so can't write a long reply but you need to read up on some of the history around US corporate colonialism. Try looking at the origin of the phrase "Banana Republic" or the history of pre-Castro Cuba.
- legulere 9y ago
  The articles about the South China Sea always make me curious because all the countries are involved in claiming non-islands. China is simply late to the party and is making similar claims than the other countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So... Quarrels about borders exist also in democratic countries, the only difference is that there good diplomatic ties are usually seen as more important.
  - intended 9y ago
    A better analogy would be that there’s an argument on land between various farming households. China is now using heavy machinery to change the flow of the river which served as the naturally boundary and saying “see, this ALL used to be mine.” China also patently doesn’t give a crap about equal countries or cultural issues - they want and need to be the top, and so that’s what they are going to Do.
solotronics 9y ago
China has little concept of human rights compared to the west. The planet would be much worse off for everyone with a Chinese hegemony, except for the Chinese politburo.
- dis-sys 9y ago
  > worse off for everyone with a Chinese hegemony, except for the Chinese politburo Thanks for representing 1.4 billion Chinese, being a westerner surely gives you such right to assume that we Chinese are all being repressed. well done!
  - xor1 9y ago
    i mean... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system imagine being an illegal immigrant in your own country because you aren't legally allowed to live in major cities
    - dis-sys 9y ago
      Oh, that is interesting. You mean it is illegal for me to live/work in other Chinese cities? The problem is several members of immediate family have been doing that for 20 years, e.g, my parents, are they going to be detained soon?
      - xor1 9y ago
        why do you think that I'm talking about you? the phrasing of my post even says "imagine", indicating that I'm assuming it doesn't apply to you. imagine yourself as someone who wasn't lucky enough to be born into the "right" citizenship furthermore, you're describing urban-to-urban movement in your post for some reason...you're either being very disingenuous in that regard because the main issue with the hukou system is that it blocks rural-to-urban, or i know more about it than you do...
    - fspeech 9y ago
      Yes the hukou system is a shame, but even with the hukou system check out the population growth in Beijing: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/beijing-population/ http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/beijing-popula... China has done some work to soften the system a little and there have been recurrent talks of abolishing it altogether. Hopefully it goes into the dustbin of history one day.
itissid 9y ago
Here are a few examples 1. Inflating asset bubbles without accompanying consumer standard of living: http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997 http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997 2. Poor oversight of loans causing volatility in commodity markets and general mayhem http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/pledged-assets-are-not-there-reuters-goes-china-discovers-ghost-collateral http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/pledged-assets-are-... Interestingly Michael Pettis's site was hacked and killed multiple times before he moved it to Carnegie Endowments for International Peace. One can only wonder how.
- keypusher 9y ago
  > Inflating asset bubbles without accompanying consumer standard of living Like the rising US stock market and real estate prices, without accompanying consumer standard of living? > Poor oversight of loans causing volatility in commodity markets and general mayhem Like the 2008 crash?
  - itissid 9y ago
    The idea is similar but also there are important differences. In that 1. Who owns the debt(bubble) that is piled up and who is it owed to. The US stock market the debt was owed by private banks and on their balance sheets. In china there is not a lot of difference between monetary and fiscal policy and because of this the Banks spend as govt wants them to and so is the ownership of debt. 2. Not the 2008 crisis. Thats just poor due diligence of borrowers letting them use the same collateral for multiple loans.
blusterXY 9y ago
How many Western tech companies do you know that are doing well in China? How many Americans do you know that are allowed to work legally in China? What about the other way?
- OnlineCourage 9y ago
  Actually as an American you can simply go to China on a, "whatever" visa and start working on arrival, there is no enforcement of the law except if you start making real money and stepping in someone's toes. It's virtually impossible for average Chinese to get to the US even as a tourist. Western Tech companies doing well? 3M, Microsoft, Yahoo,...it depends on how good of a job they did forming relationships or paying bribes and how immune their business model is to asset siezure and copying.
  - blusterXY 9y ago
    A tourist visa does not permit someone to work legally in China. And Chinese companies do not hire foreigners so the point is moot: there are more non-native Chinese people working in Silicon Valley than foreigners working in all of the Chinese tech companies in China. Your examples prove the point. 3M is a manufacturing company that distributes face masks. Microsoft collects payments because diplomatic pressure from the US coerced China into paying for software licenses. And Yahoo stopped being active in any meaningful way more than a decade ago: their Chinese search engine even redirects to Singapore. All three companies are also effectively guaranteed to have more Chinese hires working overseas than foreign staff working in China. Like it or not, the bias against China is easy to understand: China is racist and non-meritocratic in ways that Western economies are not. Tech workers face harsh wage competition (from Chinese workers) and commercial competition (from ventures with direct or indirect state backing) without any countervailing upside (the ability to compete in the Chinese market or play off Chinese against American employers).
elgenie 9y ago
China is a dictatorship and not a benevolent one. The grand bargain being attempted in China since the '80s is that economic growth achieved by any means (by hook or by crook) will work to pay off the citizenry and prevent reforms in the political arena in the direction of freedom and democracy. Thus those sympathetic to the growth of freedom and democracy and opposed to power projection of a dictatorship are going to be skeptical and critical of news of Chinese economic growth and international investment. Also, since Chinese policies within their economic sphere of influence are explicitly protectionist, the expansion of that sphere materially threatens the non-Chinese firms currently brushing up against that sphere (and their future successors).
intended 9y ago
For context: BEIJING: China today warned that it would consider as a "major offence" if any country or foreign leader hosts or meets the Dalai Lama as it deems the Tibetan spiritual leader a "separatist" trying to split Tibet from it. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/meeting-dalai-lama-major-offence-china-warns-world-leaders/articleshow/61161639.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/meeting-dala...
gurkendoktor 9y ago
> If you feel threatened by the idea of a China that economically dominates, I would honestly like to hear your explanation. I think what's actually more worrisome is what happens when China stops growing. The CCP is extremely authoritarian, China's residents are nationalistic and already consider a whole foreign country "actually theirs", it seems like the perfect setup for maybe-accidentally sliding into war when things go sour back at home. As a German, I am not scared of China because they're an exotic "other" culture with 5000 years of history etc., but because they look like fellow Germans at their absolutely worst. Having met Chinese who revere Hitler hasn't really helped. Paranoid? Maybe. We Germans are schooled to be extremely wary of aggressive nationalism :)
- gurkendoktor 9y ago
  And more to the point: > ...a general belief that undemocratic societies cannot prosper economically... This question doesn't compute for me. Democracy was always explained to me as a mechanism to keep countries peaceful and stable at the expense of economic efficiency.
OnlineCourage 9y ago
Fetish? Your question reads as a farce, because there is no, "Chinese Government," it is merely the actions of the Chinese Communist Party, which has 50 million members and is democratic within itself. What China is in terms an elite party controlled state and what you are assuming as an unuanced, "undemocratic state," whatever that means, shows you should probably just read a lot more on China and how it actually works rather than dismissing any potential criticisms as sexual in nature, implying they warrant no further discussion, if you are genuinely curious.
MarkMc 9y ago
All analysis takes on a 'personal tinge' - what we want to be true we judge to be true. Perhaps I'm making that mistake, but let me explain my view regarding China: 1. China's economy is headed for a slump - either a severe recession or 'lost decade'. China is taking on enormous debt to fund infrastructure projects which on the whole will not generate a good economic return. They have an overheated property market. Looking at economic history over the past 100 years, there have been few countries that have had capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP approaching China's level, and when they did it almost always ended badly. 2. But In the longer term China's economy is on track to greatly exceed the US - there's no doubt that they are following the economic path of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, etc. Military strength correlates with economic size, so before the end of this century China will be the dominant superpower [1] 3. As an Australian I'm concerned by China's rise, but I wouldn't say 'threatened'. Our economy has benefited enormously by China's economic success - mostly through the mining industry, but also education and tourism. My concern stems from a belief that open, democratic governments are much better behaved - how many of the 20th century's horrors could have been avoided by a free press and fair elections? The current superpower, the U.S., is far more open and democratic than China, and it has never had mass hysteria like the Cultural Revolution. I hope that China becomes more free and democratic as it gains strength, but if it doesn't Australia and the world will probably still be OK. Probably. [1] Curiously, the one thing that could prevent the U.S. from losing its military dominance in the long term - ie. a high immigration level - is opposed by 'conservatives' in the US.

eradicatethots 9y ago

I feel threatened by China, because I don’t trust them. There’s not much more to it. I fear that they might abuse their power or use it to destabilize the West. There’s a lot of hatred of the Us, and I don’t want them to try and trample our norms, culture, society... things which I care about and am deeply connected to. That’s not to say they actually would do any of those things, the key point is the lack of trust, specifically trust that they would do anything to benefit us or protect us or that they care about us at all. I don’t trust them, and the specifics of what they could do to hurt us are not really something I consider (but as they become more powerful they have many more options... to the point where one day maybe we are dwarfed by them and have no ability to defend ourselves should we need to.) China is very scary to me.

justicezyx 9y ago
> I fear that they might abuse their power or use it to destabilize the West Totally warranted, look at what happens during cold war, and the conflicts between nations with different ideologies. The mutual-untrustness cannot be reduced in any degree.
h8liu 9y ago
Interesting... Chinese people also feel threatened by the West, because they don't trust you. There's not much more to it. They fear that you might abuse your power or use it to destabilize China. There's a lot of hatred of China, and they don't want you to try and trample Chinese norms, culture, society... things which they care about and are deeply connected to. That's not to say the West actually would do any of those things, the key point is the lack of trust, specifically trust that you would do anything to benefit Chinese people or protect Chinese or that you care about them at all. They don't trust you, and the specifics of what you could do to hurt them are not really something they consider (but as you, the West is already powerful, you have many more options... to the point where one day maybe be the Chinese are dwarfed again by the West, and have no ability to defend themselves should they have to.) The west is very scary to Chinese people. See how this goes?
- eradicatethots 9y ago
  Yes I see how this goes, but I don’t see your point. I don’t agree with the conclusion that the existences of mutual distrust is proof that distrust is wrong, and I do t think you’ve provided any argument besides that. I don’t see why my distrust of China implies to people that China is not allowed to distrust me, or that I’m somehow saying that They’re unique. This is a statement of fact. This is reality. I’m not being prescriptive here. I would personally like for China to be more friendly towards the us and vice versa but I’m not sitting here saying the us is perfect or free of sin. I don’t see why the us must be perfect before I can announce what is already reality, that I distrust China. Perhaps you shouldn’t read my post as a diplomatic action, something that I just said as part of an argument to try and manipulate China or something, because that’s not what it is. It’s a statement of fact and some analysis on the cause. I’m not trying to criticize China or convince China to change, even if I would definitely like that to happen, and think it should.
  - h8liu 9y ago
    You are justifying your fear of a rising power, as if you are threatened, and you have all your rights to fear. However, the truth is that the West is still arguably more powerful, where the Chinese people are the ones that have been living in this exact kind of fear that you stated for a very very long time. If your reasoning holds as a universal value for all human beings (but not just for you), then it is effectively justifying a historically less powered entity, China, now eventually becoming free from this threat, where the world becomes more equal and multi-tenant in power, and you should happily embrace it. Maybe what you fear is not that you are threatened, but that your current way of threatening other people in the world is no more. What you fear is change. And yes, you are stating the facts: one of the ugly parts of human nature.
    - eradicatethots 9y ago
      Did you really need to call me ugly? Lol I fear a loss of security. You’re overthinking it to say I’m attached to the fact that our security comes from threats. Security is what matters, not being threatening. I think your comment is a little bit rude to be honest, but that’s not a big deal.
landryraccoon 9y ago
Historically, China has not interfered in the affairs of distant nations. If you are judging by history, the West has interfered with China much more, thus far, than visa versa. I would go so far as to say that China has never yet tried to destabilize the West or impose it's values on the West. Can the West make the same claim about China? As it is written, as you judge, so shall you be judged. If your standard is that countries should not abuse their power to destabilize other countries, then historically doesn't China actually hold the high ground?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- hiram112 9y ago
  China has never been able to interfere in 'distant' nations. The Europeans were the first to truly develop navies capable of projecting force at such great distances, beginning in the Renaissance period, and everyone else has been playing catch-up. By your logic, the Romans or Greeks or ancient Egyptians were a peace-loving peoples because they didn't bother China much either. But if you look at what was possible, based on the technological capabilities at the time, China has never been as peaceful as they constantly claim. Just ask any of their neighbors, many of whom have explicitly created defense pacts with the US and the West because of historical fear of an aggressive China. Note I'm not trying to say the West deserves any trust. But based on China's history and its current behavior as it does become more capable, combined with the constant Chinese PR about their 'peaceful rise', I'm not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - fsloth 9y ago
    Actually Chinese had much more capable maritime technology than europe in the 1500's but their emperor said he did not approve of such silly business as voyages of discovery so they just stopped doing that. To China's rulers, trade and profit were facets of internal politics, and not an end in themselves. "as the Confucian bureaucracy under the next emperor reversed the policy of open exploration and by 1500, it became a capital offence to build a seagoing junk with more than two masts."[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_exploration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_exploration
fsloth 9y ago
Maybe you should read a few books about china? You fear things you don't understand. Your writing sound like you are describing Mordor. China, on the other hand, is a country ruled and populated by real people. With a bit different values, sure.

digitalzombie 9y ago

> If you feel threatened by the idea of a China that is economically globally dominated, I would honestly like to hear your explanation. Do you not see those articles where China build artificial islands and try to enforce the China seas as if they own all of it? They bully everybody, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, etc.. They're doing this because of the oil in the area and to exert dominance. USA on the other way just want everybody to be okay cause you know USA is all about money and business. If you lock that area like China is doing USA can't really profit. I think in general I rather have USA ideology over China bullying.

zhte415 9y ago
> They're doing this because of the oil in the area and to exert dominance. USA on the other way just want everybody to be okay cause you know USA is all about money and business. If you lock that area like China is doing USA can't really profit. It because of a fear of missing resources that may be scarce and invaluable. Not just oil, fish too, and access to shipping lanes. This is not incompatible with US interests.
andybak 9y ago
On a phone right now so can't write a long reply but you need to read up on some of the history around US corporate colonialism. Try looking at the origin of the phrase "Banana Republic" or the history of pre-Castro Cuba.
legulere 9y ago
The articles about the South China Sea always make me curious because all the countries are involved in claiming non-islands. China is simply late to the party and is making similar claims than the other countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So... Quarrels about borders exist also in democratic countries, the only difference is that there good diplomatic ties are usually seen as more important.
- intended 9y ago
  A better analogy would be that there’s an argument on land between various farming households. China is now using heavy machinery to change the flow of the river which served as the naturally boundary and saying “see, this ALL used to be mine.” China also patently doesn’t give a crap about equal countries or cultural issues - they want and need to be the top, and so that’s what they are going to Do.

solotronics 9y ago

China has little concept of human rights compared to the west. The planet would be much worse off for everyone with a Chinese hegemony, except for the Chinese politburo.

dis-sys 9y ago
> worse off for everyone with a Chinese hegemony, except for the Chinese politburo Thanks for representing 1.4 billion Chinese, being a westerner surely gives you such right to assume that we Chinese are all being repressed. well done!
- xor1 9y ago
  i mean... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system imagine being an illegal immigrant in your own country because you aren't legally allowed to live in major cities
  - dis-sys 9y ago
    Oh, that is interesting. You mean it is illegal for me to live/work in other Chinese cities? The problem is several members of immediate family have been doing that for 20 years, e.g, my parents, are they going to be detained soon?
    - xor1 9y ago
      why do you think that I'm talking about you? the phrasing of my post even says "imagine", indicating that I'm assuming it doesn't apply to you. imagine yourself as someone who wasn't lucky enough to be born into the "right" citizenship furthermore, you're describing urban-to-urban movement in your post for some reason...you're either being very disingenuous in that regard because the main issue with the hukou system is that it blocks rural-to-urban, or i know more about it than you do...
  - fspeech 9y ago
    Yes the hukou system is a shame, but even with the hukou system check out the population growth in Beijing: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/beijing-population/ http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/beijing-popula... China has done some work to soften the system a little and there have been recurrent talks of abolishing it altogether. Hopefully it goes into the dustbin of history one day.

itissid 9y ago

Here are a few examples 1. Inflating asset bubbles without accompanying consumer standard of living: http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997 http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997 2. Poor oversight of loans causing volatility in commodity markets and general mayhem http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/pledged-assets-are-not-there-reuters-goes-china-discovers-ghost-collateral http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/pledged-assets-are-... Interestingly Michael Pettis's site was hacked and killed multiple times before he moved it to Carnegie Endowments for International Peace. One can only wonder how.

keypusher 9y ago
> Inflating asset bubbles without accompanying consumer standard of living Like the rising US stock market and real estate prices, without accompanying consumer standard of living? > Poor oversight of loans causing volatility in commodity markets and general mayhem Like the 2008 crash?
- itissid 9y ago
  The idea is similar but also there are important differences. In that 1. Who owns the debt(bubble) that is piled up and who is it owed to. The US stock market the debt was owed by private banks and on their balance sheets. In china there is not a lot of difference between monetary and fiscal policy and because of this the Banks spend as govt wants them to and so is the ownership of debt. 2. Not the 2008 crisis. Thats just poor due diligence of borrowers letting them use the same collateral for multiple loans.

blusterXY 9y ago

How many Western tech companies do you know that are doing well in China? How many Americans do you know that are allowed to work legally in China? What about the other way?

OnlineCourage 9y ago
Actually as an American you can simply go to China on a, "whatever" visa and start working on arrival, there is no enforcement of the law except if you start making real money and stepping in someone's toes. It's virtually impossible for average Chinese to get to the US even as a tourist. Western Tech companies doing well? 3M, Microsoft, Yahoo,...it depends on how good of a job they did forming relationships or paying bribes and how immune their business model is to asset siezure and copying.
- blusterXY 9y ago
  A tourist visa does not permit someone to work legally in China. And Chinese companies do not hire foreigners so the point is moot: there are more non-native Chinese people working in Silicon Valley than foreigners working in all of the Chinese tech companies in China. Your examples prove the point. 3M is a manufacturing company that distributes face masks. Microsoft collects payments because diplomatic pressure from the US coerced China into paying for software licenses. And Yahoo stopped being active in any meaningful way more than a decade ago: their Chinese search engine even redirects to Singapore. All three companies are also effectively guaranteed to have more Chinese hires working overseas than foreign staff working in China. Like it or not, the bias against China is easy to understand: China is racist and non-meritocratic in ways that Western economies are not. Tech workers face harsh wage competition (from Chinese workers) and commercial competition (from ventures with direct or indirect state backing) without any countervailing upside (the ability to compete in the Chinese market or play off Chinese against American employers).

elgenie 9y ago

China is a dictatorship and not a benevolent one. The grand bargain being attempted in China since the '80s is that economic growth achieved by any means (by hook or by crook) will work to pay off the citizenry and prevent reforms in the political arena in the direction of freedom and democracy. Thus those sympathetic to the growth of freedom and democracy and opposed to power projection of a dictatorship are going to be skeptical and critical of news of Chinese economic growth and international investment. Also, since Chinese policies within their economic sphere of influence are explicitly protectionist, the expansion of that sphere materially threatens the non-Chinese firms currently brushing up against that sphere (and their future successors).

intended 9y ago

For context: BEIJING: China today warned that it would consider as a "major offence" if any country or foreign leader hosts or meets the Dalai Lama as it deems the Tibetan spiritual leader a "separatist" trying to split Tibet from it. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/meeting-dalai-lama-major-offence-china-warns-world-leaders/articleshow/61161639.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/meeting-dala...

gurkendoktor 9y ago

> If you feel threatened by the idea of a China that economically dominates, I would honestly like to hear your explanation. I think what's actually more worrisome is what happens when China stops growing. The CCP is extremely authoritarian, China's residents are nationalistic and already consider a whole foreign country "actually theirs", it seems like the perfect setup for maybe-accidentally sliding into war when things go sour back at home. As a German, I am not scared of China because they're an exotic "other" culture with 5000 years of history etc., but because they look like fellow Germans at their absolutely worst. Having met Chinese who revere Hitler hasn't really helped. Paranoid? Maybe. We Germans are schooled to be extremely wary of aggressive nationalism :)

gurkendoktor 9y ago
And more to the point: > ...a general belief that undemocratic societies cannot prosper economically... This question doesn't compute for me. Democracy was always explained to me as a mechanism to keep countries peaceful and stable at the expense of economic efficiency.

OnlineCourage 9y ago

Fetish? Your question reads as a farce, because there is no, "Chinese Government," it is merely the actions of the Chinese Communist Party, which has 50 million members and is democratic within itself. What China is in terms an elite party controlled state and what you are assuming as an unuanced, "undemocratic state," whatever that means, shows you should probably just read a lot more on China and how it actually works rather than dismissing any potential criticisms as sexual in nature, implying they warrant no further discussion, if you are genuinely curious.

MarkMc 9y ago

All analysis takes on a 'personal tinge' - what we want to be true we judge to be true. Perhaps I'm making that mistake, but let me explain my view regarding China: 1. China's economy is headed for a slump - either a severe recession or 'lost decade'. China is taking on enormous debt to fund infrastructure projects which on the whole will not generate a good economic return. They have an overheated property market. Looking at economic history over the past 100 years, there have been few countries that have had capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP approaching China's level, and when they did it almost always ended badly. 2. But In the longer term China's economy is on track to greatly exceed the US - there's no doubt that they are following the economic path of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, etc. Military strength correlates with economic size, so before the end of this century China will be the dominant superpower [1] 3. As an Australian I'm concerned by China's rise, but I wouldn't say 'threatened'. Our economy has benefited enormously by China's economic success - mostly through the mining industry, but also education and tourism. My concern stems from a belief that open, democratic governments are much better behaved - how many of the 20th century's horrors could have been avoided by a free press and fair elections? The current superpower, the U.S., is far more open and democratic than China, and it has never had mass hysteria like the Cultural Revolution. I hope that China becomes more free and democratic as it gains strength, but if it doesn't Australia and the world will probably still be OK. Probably. [1] Curiously, the one thing that could prevent the U.S. from losing its military dominance in the long term - ie. a high immigration level - is opposed by 'conservatives' in the US.