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This is just another way to keep GDP growth up by boosting spending. Basically there are a few policies that the Chinese are pursing: 1. Conquering the industr
by itissid 9y ago
This is just another way to keep GDP growth up by boosting spending. Basically there are a few policies that the Chinese are pursing:
1. Conquering the industries that they are lagging in(i.e auto and semiconductor) by disguising govt subsides as state "support" and flouting WTO rules[1].
2. Spend money on belt and road thingy to prop up GDP because there is no more to spend on existing overheated asset bubbles.
Remember all those years of propping up GDP in construction projects, where the interest on debt(and the debt itself too) becomes too large a portion of the GDP such that most of it goes to just servicing the debt. Ultimately you want consumer spending and standard of living to grow in lock step but it does not[2].
But ultimately with extra spending and little growth they will keep running against fundamental issues like the Impossible Trinity[3] which is like the CAP theorem of macro economics. Unless the economy balances spending and real growth, and if it does not the only Q is when will it burst or become like Japan's decades of stagnation.
[1]https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21729442-its-record-industrial-policy-successes-patchy-china-sets-its-sights https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/2172944...
[2] http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997 http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/72997
[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
- mostlystatic 9y ago“Ultimately you want consumer spending and standard of living to grow in lock step but it does not[2].” This is often said, but even after reading the linked article it’s not clear why that’s desirable. Why not for example keep growing exports instead of domestic consumption?
- zdkl 9y agoToo much exposition on "non-china" factors?