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Because people who bet sharply on lines reduce the long term profitability of the bookies. While they reduce the variance, they take directly from the profits.
by iopq 9y ago
Because people who bet sharply on lines reduce the long term profitability of the bookies. While they reduce the variance, they take directly from the profits.
Defeats the point of being a bookie when better bettors imbalance the book in one direction and win.
- watoc 9y agoIf they imbalance the book yes. But in this case the authors got the statistical edge because the bookie is trying to balance the book. What difference does it make if the $10k the bookie needs at 4/1 to balance the book comes from professional better Bob or from long term loser Joe? As soon as the book gets imbalanced again they would have to change the lines again.
- iopq 9y agoBecause Bob bets when it is profitable - when the line is wrong. Taken as aggregate, Joes bet on both outcomes, the unprofitable ones and profitable ones.