If we don't even know how to create life from base elements how can we even surmise to know the probability that it will happen on it's own else where? The fer

If we don't even know how to create life from base elements how can we even surmise to know the probability that it will happen on it's own else where? The fermi paradox is not really a paradox if it is based off of a probability that we don't even know. Once we know the conditions and steps it takes to form life then we can take a stab at estimating this probability. Don't trust your intuition on this, while the universe is incredibly large, nobody knows how infinitesimally small the probability of life spontaneously arising from base elements is.... Additionally, we need to know the probability of having this life form evolve into something that can communicate across space. There are things around you that have nearly zero probability of occurring again anywhere in the universe. Unless you have a twin, the probability of someone being born anywhere in the universe with your exact configuration of DNA is nearly zero. It is possible that the formation of intelligent life shares an equally small probability. Again, we don't know this probability until someone is able to recreate it.