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As others pointed out, you assume that other civilizations have similar technologies, motives, potential, political situation (or politics at all) and even mate

As others pointed out, you assume that other civilizations have similar technologies, motives, potential, political situation (or politics at all) and even material structure or needs. It's all speculation. We have satellites and yet know very little of what's happening in other countries. We mistake their needs and intents all the time. We are regularly surprised of what they are capable or incapable to do. And yet those are identical being living in the same spot as us.

pklausler 9y ago
It takes just one BvN launch in galactic history to fill the galaxy up with self-replicating probes for the rest of its history. Doing this doesn't require much more technological capability than we have now. Motivation, politics, and ethics do not matter, just capabilities -- over such a huge volume of space, across billions of years, anything that's remotely possible will take place. The galaxy is very large and very old -- yet it is not overrun by frantically reproducing robots.
- sametmax 9y ago
  Again, you assume many things: - they are interested in expanding; - they didn't find a better solution to expand than going to other planets; - their material structure is similar to us (they are physical, they have the same size/speed/time perception as use) - the universe has no characteristics than we don't know about that could disallow us to perceive them (number of dimensions, or whatever) - they emit some signals among the one we can perceive; - they need and use energy as we do and as we understand it; - they are not actively hiding; - if we saw them we would realize what we saw. It's like an ant assuming that because they can't smell pheromones from another hill, there is no life there. Now, I'm for ocalm razor and I actually thing there is a strong probability that all those assumptions are true. But I don't know for sure that they are. They are just that: assumptions.

pklausler 9y ago

It takes just one BvN launch in galactic history to fill the galaxy up with self-replicating probes for the rest of its history. Doing this doesn't require much more technological capability than we have now. Motivation, politics, and ethics do not matter, just capabilities -- over such a huge volume of space, across billions of years, anything that's remotely possible will take place. The galaxy is very large and very old -- yet it is not overrun by frantically reproducing robots.

sametmax 9y ago
Again, you assume many things: - they are interested in expanding; - they didn't find a better solution to expand than going to other planets; - their material structure is similar to us (they are physical, they have the same size/speed/time perception as use) - the universe has no characteristics than we don't know about that could disallow us to perceive them (number of dimensions, or whatever) - they emit some signals among the one we can perceive; - they need and use energy as we do and as we understand it; - they are not actively hiding; - if we saw them we would realize what we saw. It's like an ant assuming that because they can't smell pheromones from another hill, there is no life there. Now, I'm for ocalm razor and I actually thing there is a strong probability that all those assumptions are true. But I don't know for sure that they are. They are just that: assumptions.