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> Why on earth would autonomous taxis be a monopoly? I'll bite. First, there's the entry point. If it's a taxi, you as the rider don't own it, which means you

> Why on earth would autonomous taxis be a monopoly? I'll bite. First, there's the entry point. If it's a taxi, you as the rider don't own it, which means you have to summon it. The most ubiquitous company here has a significant advantage, because they own the app or phone number that you have on your phone. You won't have to learn a new trick every time you go to a new city. It's similar to Google's monopoly on search. Being driven around is also somewhat of a commodity. People don't have strong preferences that can't all be satisfied by a single company. You want a nice car or a cheap one? A solo ride or a group one? Easy enough to do in a single app. Whereas an industry resistant to monopolies — say restaurants or productivity apps — are subject to a variety preferences and whims. There are also economies of scale. Major players like Uber and Lyft have the marketing budget to drive far more growth than competitors. They have the budget to invest in the latest technologies. They have the budget to outright copy or buy competitors, like you see Facebook doing. They have the budget to form partnerships and integrations with other big and powerful companies. Network effects can play into this as well. Pretty much everyone has Uber and Lyft, which enables things like ride-sharing (Uber Pool and Lyft Line), or splitting the cost of rides with friends, etc. This is all just off the top of my head. I'm sure others who are better versed in business than I am can think of more reasons for why autonomous taxis are well-suited to monopoly, and counter-arguments as well. But it's certainly not a ridiculous presumption.

CPLX 9y ago
Literally every single one of the dynamics you mention is already true for taxis driven by people. Autonomous taxis are taxis, which we understand, with computers replacing the people. That's all they are. Magical thinking abounds.
- zenlikethat 9y ago
  Not true at all. I can't hail a cab with ease from 90% of the places I might want to call an Uber. They also can't be counted on to deliver a quality experience. Therefore, people are switching to the new technology of rideshare apps. Where the incumbents have a huge advantage because using them if you have already is seamless. Self-driving is just the next step in the chain.
  - CPLX 9y ago
    Right. The idea of app based hailing is far more impactful on the monopoly question than the self driving part. And Uber's delusional investment premise notwithstanding, it's pretty clear that there's not going to be a genuine monopoly in app based taxi services. At minimum there will be a few major players. But the relevant point is that there's no reason to think autonomous driving will strongly affect the monopoly dynamics of taxi services really at all.
- csallen 9y ago
  Not true. First, the taxi companies never made apps, so the lock-in factor just wasn't there. Second, the absence of an app makes it hard for any single company to succeed with every option that customers want. Willing to pay more for a nicer car and a professional driver? Or want to save money by sharing a ride with someone else? Sorry, you get whatever cab is closest, unless you're willing to look through the phone book, and the cab companies can't stop you from seeing their competitors in the phone book. With an app, I can get all of my options taken care of without ever seeing another company. Third, taxis are heavily regulated and even have to buy medallions from the limited share the city makes available. Uber and Lyft completely skirted regulations, removing an artificial barrier to monopolization. Fourth, all of the above greatly diminish the effects of the economies of scale that Uber and Lyft enjoy. Why spend a bunch of money on, say, advertising, if it isn't going to help because people simply jump in the nearest cab regardless? How can you block the competition by copying their features if nobody has apps with features to copy? How can you buy out the competition if you don't have enough cash because needing to invest in medallions and drivers slows your growth? It's not an accident that Uber and Lyft have put companies like SF's Yellow Cab out of business. With self-driving technology, the economies of scale become even more influential. Who's going to get first dibs on exclusive partnerships with car manufacturers and tech companies? Who's going to have the funds and the clout and the experience to negotiate with regulators and governments? Who's going to have the software engineers to develop their own self-driving technology? Not small taxi companies, that's for sure.
  - B1FF_PSUVM 9y ago
    > the taxi companies never made apps ? https://www.google.pt/search?q=itunes+taxi+app https://www.google.pt/search?q=itunes+taxi+app
    - csallen 9y ago
      I'm talking about before the Uber-Lyft duopoly came into being. It's obviously futile to make an app now. How many taxi companies had mobile apps before 2009?

CPLX 9y ago

Literally every single one of the dynamics you mention is already true for taxis driven by people. Autonomous taxis are taxis, which we understand, with computers replacing the people. That's all they are. Magical thinking abounds.

zenlikethat 9y ago
Not true at all. I can't hail a cab with ease from 90% of the places I might want to call an Uber. They also can't be counted on to deliver a quality experience. Therefore, people are switching to the new technology of rideshare apps. Where the incumbents have a huge advantage because using them if you have already is seamless. Self-driving is just the next step in the chain.
- CPLX 9y ago
  Right. The idea of app based hailing is far more impactful on the monopoly question than the self driving part. And Uber's delusional investment premise notwithstanding, it's pretty clear that there's not going to be a genuine monopoly in app based taxi services. At minimum there will be a few major players. But the relevant point is that there's no reason to think autonomous driving will strongly affect the monopoly dynamics of taxi services really at all.
csallen 9y ago
Not true. First, the taxi companies never made apps, so the lock-in factor just wasn't there. Second, the absence of an app makes it hard for any single company to succeed with every option that customers want. Willing to pay more for a nicer car and a professional driver? Or want to save money by sharing a ride with someone else? Sorry, you get whatever cab is closest, unless you're willing to look through the phone book, and the cab companies can't stop you from seeing their competitors in the phone book. With an app, I can get all of my options taken care of without ever seeing another company. Third, taxis are heavily regulated and even have to buy medallions from the limited share the city makes available. Uber and Lyft completely skirted regulations, removing an artificial barrier to monopolization. Fourth, all of the above greatly diminish the effects of the economies of scale that Uber and Lyft enjoy. Why spend a bunch of money on, say, advertising, if it isn't going to help because people simply jump in the nearest cab regardless? How can you block the competition by copying their features if nobody has apps with features to copy? How can you buy out the competition if you don't have enough cash because needing to invest in medallions and drivers slows your growth? It's not an accident that Uber and Lyft have put companies like SF's Yellow Cab out of business. With self-driving technology, the economies of scale become even more influential. Who's going to get first dibs on exclusive partnerships with car manufacturers and tech companies? Who's going to have the funds and the clout and the experience to negotiate with regulators and governments? Who's going to have the software engineers to develop their own self-driving technology? Not small taxi companies, that's for sure.
- B1FF_PSUVM 9y ago
  > the taxi companies never made apps ? https://www.google.pt/search?q=itunes+taxi+app https://www.google.pt/search?q=itunes+taxi+app
  - csallen 9y ago
    I'm talking about before the Uber-Lyft duopoly came into being. It's obviously futile to make an app now. How many taxi companies had mobile apps before 2009?