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I hesitate to comment, but I think the notion that the Fed has caused cheap money is a fallacious narrative that's easy to parrot but hard to explain. The plai
by tedsanders 9y ago
I hesitate to comment, but I think the notion that the Fed has caused cheap money is a fallacious narrative that's easy to parrot but hard to explain.
The plain truth is that inflation is low. And inflation has been consistently low for years.
Sure, the Fed rapidly expanded the base money supply from 2008 to 2014. But the reason they expanded the money supply is that demand for dollars (a safe asset) had skyrocketed. Increasing the supply of money was done to match rising demand for money, in order to keep prices stable. Without that new money, we would have faced deflation (see Japan and Europe) and probably even lower interest rates (again, see Japan and Europe).
Monetary policy and monetary theory are complicated. You can argue that inflation is mismeasured somehow. You can argue that people are irrational. You can argue that an increasing money supply will have disparate impacts on industries (e.g., affecting VCs differently than the aggregate economy). But all of these arguments are complicated, subtle, and second-order. It's not enough to say that a rising money supply causes cheap money which causes increased investment. By itself, the logic doesn't hold.
- ethbro 9y agoI think the other thing "cheap money" bypasses is a relative metric. Fed fund rates are low compared to... what? Obviously compared to a hypothetical higher Fed rate, but that's not much of an argument.