3 ms·

How is this argument materially different from Pascal's Wager? It is entirely the same structure: P: (cryonics works | God is real) If !P and you don't pla

by rosser 9y ago

How is this argument materially different from Pascal's Wager? It is entirely the same structure: P: (cryonics works | God is real) If !P and you don't play along, no outcome If P and you don't play along, "bad" outcome If !P and you do play along, no outcome If P and you do play along, "good" outcome ∴ You are dumb not to play along, just in case. What am I missing?

evgen 9y ago
If P and you do play along you still have no assurance of a good outcome. If !P and you do not play along then your heirs enjoy the benefits of your estate instead of a collection of con men and snake oil salesmen. Cryonics snake oil salesmen are modern-day alchemists, promising you that they will figure out how to turn lead into gold any day now and if you just set up a small annuity on their behalf they will make sure that a golden statue proclaiming your magnificence will be the first thing they create upon success. Surely you could not doubt them, for it is obvious that lead exists, and that gold exists, and we have seen how various substances and processes transform materials in ways that defy explanation. With a little bit more money to fund the research they are absolutely going to figure out how to convert one to another...
- rosser 9y ago
  I'm not saying there will be a good outcome, if P and you play along. I'm saying that's the argument. I think cryonics is as much snake oil as Pascal's God. I'm baffled that I should need to clarify that, given that's what I analogized the argument to.
  - evgen 9y ago
    I probably should have left the "if P" part out, but the "if !P" bits that assume no cost are where the cryonics crowd plays their deception and it annoys me to see this repeated. This really approaches the sort of "what's the harm" claims made for a lot of pseudo-science and so I feel compelled to address it but did not mean to suggest that you were making the claim.

by rosser 9y ago

evgen 9y ago

If P and you do play along you still have no assurance of a good outcome. If !P and you do not play along then your heirs enjoy the benefits of your estate instead of a collection of con men and snake oil salesmen. Cryonics snake oil salesmen are modern-day alchemists, promising you that they will figure out how to turn lead into gold any day now and if you just set up a small annuity on their behalf they will make sure that a golden statue proclaiming your magnificence will be the first thing they create upon success. Surely you could not doubt them, for it is obvious that lead exists, and that gold exists, and we have seen how various substances and processes transform materials in ways that defy explanation. With a little bit more money to fund the research they are absolutely going to figure out how to convert one to another...

rosser 9y ago
I'm not saying there will be a good outcome, if P and you play along. I'm saying that's the argument. I think cryonics is as much snake oil as Pascal's God. I'm baffled that I should need to clarify that, given that's what I analogized the argument to.
- evgen 9y ago
  I probably should have left the "if P" part out, but the "if !P" bits that assume no cost are where the cryonics crowd plays their deception and it annoys me to see this repeated. This really approaches the sort of "what's the harm" claims made for a lot of pseudo-science and so I feel compelled to address it but did not mean to suggest that you were making the claim.