4 ms·

My feeling: brace for systemic collapse.

by wazoox 9y ago

anvandare 9y ago
I sometimes wonder what people were thinking or doing, in the days before a calamity. In Pompeii, in Lisbon, in Hiroshima, ... Unaware of what was about to happen to them. Just living their daily lives. I also sometimes wonder if future people will have reason to think of us in a similar way, when I hear of news like this, or the clathrate gun hypothesis.
- nostromo95 9y ago
  >Hiroshima Don’t know if you’ve ever read this, but here you go: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31/hiroshima https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31/hiroshima
  - anvandare 9y ago
    I had read some brief stories before (or seen them read out in a documentary) but this one I had not yet read. Thank you.
michaelkeenan 9y ago
If you make that a specific prediction, I might like to bet against it, if you're interested.
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  Not the bravest of bets. How's @wazoox supposed to collect from you if the system collapses?
  - michaelkeenan 9y ago
    Bet on it happening in another continent? Bet on a precursor?
- wazoox 9y ago
  Well, let's see, 80% of insects, 60% of birds, 75% of fish have disappeared in 30 years (a blink of an eye). Climate change is already bringing famine and chaos around the world. We have absolutely no credible alternative to fossil fuels. The financial system is in complete disarray. Economists proved GDP is strictly tied to energy consumption (that seems obvious) therefore, they indirectly proved that GDP growth is radically unsustainable on the long term (that made absolutely no doubt to anyone understanding physics, but hey, at least that's proven now). Several specialists announced not only "Peak Oil" (conventional oil peaked years ago, "all liquids" will peak in 2018/2019) but "Peak Everything" (even if we had some magical technology to solve any of the listed problems, we won't have the resources). I deem probable that civilisation collapses before 2020, and almost certain before 2030. What's your bet?
  - jopsen 9y ago
    2020 is 3 years away, Trump's tax cuts might give an unrecoverable financial crash by 2020. But I'm not sure that's the end of civilization.. in terms of energy the EU goal is 20% renewable by 2020. Some countries are already at 40% of electricity. There is a lot of work to do, but it's not game over yet.
    - wazoox 9y ago
      Global civilisation collapse is unlikely to be a one-day event. It will be a gradual process over several years, for instance there would be a financial market crash, than an obligation market crash and a global debt crisis, then several of the G20 countries would fall into deep crisis like civil war or dictatorship, global trade will come to a halt, wars on resources would erupt at many points on the globe, then for instance the EU would cease to exist in fact but not in law (governments would pay lip service to it for years without actually complying to its policies) etc. We wouldn't be able to say for sure "this is it, today the civilisation is collapsing". However, at the end of a several years period, billions of people would have been killed by famine, epidemics, wars, etc. Just like the fall of the Roman Empire has been dated to some more or less arbitrary date, but actually was a many years process, actually beginning a century or more before the point we date the "event"; and for people of the time, the Empire wasn't actually dead before several decades at least (and Justinian failure to capture back Rome). So we date the "fall of Roman Empire" to september the 4th, 476; but it was in the making for a century, and wasn't a done deal for another century. Similarly, the "fall of the thermo-industrial civilisation" or "American Empire" or whatever else we'll call it will be set up to some day at some later date in the future.
ChuckMcM 9y ago
Depends on how widely you define system. So far in all previous mass extinctions the system resets to a new normal and repopulates the various gaps with new choices. The cynic in me would imagine the 'system' is working to kill off humanity so that it can re-balance.
- murph-almighty 9y ago
  The Happening much?
- musage 9y ago
  > We will arrive at a moment of sufficent self-alienation where we can contemplate our own destruction [as a species] as in a static spectacle. -- Walter Benjamin

My feeling: brace for systemic collapse.

by wazoox 9y ago

My feeling: brace for systemic collapse.

I sometimes wonder what people were thinking or doing, in the days before a calamity. In Pompeii, in Lisbon, in Hiroshima, ... Unaware of what was about to happen to them. Just living their daily lives. I also sometimes wonder if future people will have reason to think of us in a similar way, when I hear of news like this, or the clathrate gun hypothesis.

nostromo95 9y ago
>Hiroshima Don’t know if you’ve ever read this, but here you go: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31/hiroshima https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1946/08/31/hiroshima
- anvandare 9y ago
  I had read some brief stories before (or seen them read out in a documentary) but this one I had not yet read. Thank you.

michaelkeenan 9y ago

If you make that a specific prediction, I might like to bet against it, if you're interested.

ceejayoz 9y ago
Not the bravest of bets. How's @wazoox supposed to collect from you if the system collapses?
- michaelkeenan 9y ago
  Bet on it happening in another continent? Bet on a precursor?
wazoox 9y ago
Well, let's see, 80% of insects, 60% of birds, 75% of fish have disappeared in 30 years (a blink of an eye). Climate change is already bringing famine and chaos around the world. We have absolutely no credible alternative to fossil fuels. The financial system is in complete disarray. Economists proved GDP is strictly tied to energy consumption (that seems obvious) therefore, they indirectly proved that GDP growth is radically unsustainable on the long term (that made absolutely no doubt to anyone understanding physics, but hey, at least that's proven now). Several specialists announced not only "Peak Oil" (conventional oil peaked years ago, "all liquids" will peak in 2018/2019) but "Peak Everything" (even if we had some magical technology to solve any of the listed problems, we won't have the resources). I deem probable that civilisation collapses before 2020, and almost certain before 2030. What's your bet?
- jopsen 9y ago
  2020 is 3 years away, Trump's tax cuts might give an unrecoverable financial crash by 2020. But I'm not sure that's the end of civilization.. in terms of energy the EU goal is 20% renewable by 2020. Some countries are already at 40% of electricity. There is a lot of work to do, but it's not game over yet.
  - wazoox 9y ago
    Global civilisation collapse is unlikely to be a one-day event. It will be a gradual process over several years, for instance there would be a financial market crash, than an obligation market crash and a global debt crisis, then several of the G20 countries would fall into deep crisis like civil war or dictatorship, global trade will come to a halt, wars on resources would erupt at many points on the globe, then for instance the EU would cease to exist in fact but not in law (governments would pay lip service to it for years without actually complying to its policies) etc. We wouldn't be able to say for sure "this is it, today the civilisation is collapsing". However, at the end of a several years period, billions of people would have been killed by famine, epidemics, wars, etc. Just like the fall of the Roman Empire has been dated to some more or less arbitrary date, but actually was a many years process, actually beginning a century or more before the point we date the "event"; and for people of the time, the Empire wasn't actually dead before several decades at least (and Justinian failure to capture back Rome). So we date the "fall of Roman Empire" to september the 4th, 476; but it was in the making for a century, and wasn't a done deal for another century. Similarly, the "fall of the thermo-industrial civilisation" or "American Empire" or whatever else we'll call it will be set up to some day at some later date in the future.

ChuckMcM 9y ago

Depends on how widely you define system. So far in all previous mass extinctions the system resets to a new normal and repopulates the various gaps with new choices. The cynic in me would imagine the 'system' is working to kill off humanity so that it can re-balance.

murph-almighty 9y ago
The Happening much?
musage 9y ago
> We will arrive at a moment of sufficent self-alienation where we can contemplate our own destruction [as a species] as in a static spectacle. -- Walter Benjamin