Thanks for that link, well worth the read. This is an interesting question to ask in these "how far away is AGI" discussions: I was once at a conference where

Thanks for that link, well worth the read. This is an interesting question to ask in these "how far away is AGI" discussions: I was once at a conference where there was a panel full of famous AI luminaries, and most of the luminaries were nodding and agreeing with each other that of course AGI was very far off, except for two famous AI luminaries who stayed quiet and let others take the microphone. I got up in Q&A and said, “Okay, you’ve all told us that progress won’t be all that fast. But let’s be more concrete and specific. I’d like to know what’s the least impressive accomplishment that you are very confident cannot be done in the next two years.” There was a silence. Eventually, two people on the panel ventured replies, spoken in a rather more tentative tone than they’d been using to pronounce that AGI was decades out. They named “A robot puts away the dishes from a dishwasher without breaking them”, and Winograd schemas. Specifically, “I feel quite confident that the Winograd schemas—where we recently had a result that was in the 50, 60% range—in the next two years, we will not get 80, 90% on that regardless of the techniques people use.”