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Why Survivorship Bias Is Bullshit
- Piskvorrr 9y agoTL;DR: "I can't hear you, I can't hear you, LA LA LA LA! Therefore, things I dislike do not exist, QED."
- navigator01 9y agoSurvivorship bias is kind of bullshit, I mean luck does play a role in success, but the longer you work at something, as long as you have a good idea/plan of attack/all the other traits needed to succeed in a field, the less luck will play a role in determining your success. Luck matters less and less over longer timescales, as long as you keep doing the right things.
- Zapperino 9y agoPossessing those positive traits you speak of is also a matter of luck: the upbringing of an individual has been proven to affect one's ability to make correct decisions. Effort counts, and it counts a lot, but let's not pretend that we can override causality with it. That's why we have things like welfare and social nets.
- arjunmenon1899 9y agoAbsolutely. What is more critical than luck is the effort one puts in to figure out the right things to do. Sometimes it takes a small amount of time to figure out, sometimes a while. What matters is that one keeps at it.