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Like all things this well written on this topic I feel like it hits the nail on the head and misses a few things because it’s an article by necessity must paint
by no_wizard 9y ago
Like all things this well written on this topic I feel like it hits the nail on the head and misses a few things because it’s an article by necessity must paint in broad strucks so let me say this:
It’s completely right that automation/ robotics will accelerate the displacement of workers and cause upheaval. Certainly owning the productive fruits of this will make one very rich.
What won’t happen is that these will displace those who service unmapped or poorly systemic mapped things. For instance: in the last 15 years there have been techniques to attempt to automatically curate wine. Most either fail or pivot. Why? Because chemical composition is only ine facet in the high end. Remarkably software still does not do a great job here as tastes are subtle and hard to train in a model or algorithm. It so far can only get n times better than average but never tops an expert human curator in the high end. Will it some day? Maybe. On an infinite time scale yes it will but I wouldn’t quite go dumping my high end wine skills quite yet.
Which brings me to my point: automation is great for irredeemable or trainable repetitive processes but still an infant at more complex things like the example given.
In turn, if you can carve out a niche that is unusually hard to model and train you may be okay. Unfortunately that’s not 90 percent of jobs I reckon.
The other sure fire bet us to only deal in Veblen goods. The value there being exclusivity, which I reckon will never stop being a thing
- intended 9y agoThere an article somewhere which breaks down the types of automation, into a useable manner. Theres automation of tasks which free up labor to do MORE work - so if you were a bricklayer, and were bottlenecked by number of hands, the wheelbarrow would be a force multiplier. Theres removal of jobs with less useful jobs, so the chef got replaced by the burger flipper (not really, but I can't think of a good example at the moment). And finally removal of jobs entirely, with no need of replacement.
- Qwertious 9y ago>And finally removal of jobs entirely, with no need of replacement. For example, computers - who were replaced by computers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_computer