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I'd be very interested in reading that! Unfortumately, there's no objective metric to quantify the importance of each development, which is a problem for chart

I'd be very interested in reading that! Unfortumately, there's no objective metric to quantify the importance of each development, which is a problem for charting it, but this kind of thing has been attempted for the development of life on earth, and of technology, based on complexity. e.g. Kurzweil's singularity stuff. I think his charts are quite well argued for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PPTCountdowntoSingularityLinear.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PPTCountdowntoSingularity... It's also been back-extrapolated to estimate the genesis of life (which pre-dates earth, they find): https://phys.org/news/2013-04-law-life-began-earth.html https://phys.org/news/2013-04-law-life-began-earth.html Moore's Law has a similar chart, but it's easy to quantify in FLOPS or other computation units, so doesn't really help here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Moore%27s_Law_over_120_Years.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Moore%27s_Law_over_120_Ye...

nl 9y ago
You can chart outcomes instead of trying to score inventions. See for example: http://lukemuehlhauser.com/wp-content/uploads/all-curves-with-events.png http://lukemuehlhauser.com/wp-content/uploads/all-curves-wit... I'd caution that these graphs are completely useless for talking about a technological singularity though, and - even worse - they make it seem like "something must happen" because that line is so obviously "almost vertical". This simply isn't the case, and - importantly - is almost the opposite to the argument for a singularity.
- hyperpallium 9y ago
  Thanks, I'm interested here in global progress during the dark ages. I agree that GDP and other outcomes are another approach - and perhaps more accurate and more easily measured. GP suggested tech innovation might be an "interesting counterpoint" to conventional population/GDP approaches. Innovation from China too... though I have the impression the government managed to lock-down dangerous (to the government) innovations, like gunpowder and flight, so I think progress would have slowed there, too.
  - nl 9y ago
    Chinese gunpoweder was pretty ineffective for anything except as a terror weapon. There are plenty of records of it being as terrifying (and dangerous!) for those using it as those it was used against. There's little evidence it was anymore effective than things like the incendiary Greek Fire used by the Byzantines to great effect. I'm not aware of any particular efforts to suppress or restrict it beyond the usual Chinese restrictions on weapons. Wikipedia says a (non-central-government) militia official demonstrated a particularly effective form, and that there was later a restriction on trade of sulfur and saltpeter, but that appears more to build up their own stocks. flight Err.. they had manned kites if that was what you mean? Marco Polo say to foretell whether a ship should sail, a man would be strapped to a kite having a rectangular grid framework and the subsequent flight pattern used to divine the outlook[1]. That does seem to have been particularly restricted. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_flying_machines#Man-carrying_kites https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_flying_machines#Man-carr...

nl 9y ago

You can chart outcomes instead of trying to score inventions. See for example: http://lukemuehlhauser.com/wp-content/uploads/all-curves-with-events.png http://lukemuehlhauser.com/wp-content/uploads/all-curves-wit... I'd caution that these graphs are completely useless for talking about a technological singularity though, and - even worse - they make it seem like "something must happen" because that line is so obviously "almost vertical". This simply isn't the case, and - importantly - is almost the opposite to the argument for a singularity.

hyperpallium 9y ago
Thanks, I'm interested here in global progress during the dark ages. I agree that GDP and other outcomes are another approach - and perhaps more accurate and more easily measured. GP suggested tech innovation might be an "interesting counterpoint" to conventional population/GDP approaches. Innovation from China too... though I have the impression the government managed to lock-down dangerous (to the government) innovations, like gunpowder and flight, so I think progress would have slowed there, too.
- nl 9y ago
  Chinese gunpoweder was pretty ineffective for anything except as a terror weapon. There are plenty of records of it being as terrifying (and dangerous!) for those using it as those it was used against. There's little evidence it was anymore effective than things like the incendiary Greek Fire used by the Byzantines to great effect. I'm not aware of any particular efforts to suppress or restrict it beyond the usual Chinese restrictions on weapons. Wikipedia says a (non-central-government) militia official demonstrated a particularly effective form, and that there was later a restriction on trade of sulfur and saltpeter, but that appears more to build up their own stocks. flight Err.. they had manned kites if that was what you mean? Marco Polo say to foretell whether a ship should sail, a man would be strapped to a kite having a rectangular grid framework and the subsequent flight pattern used to divine the outlook[1]. That does seem to have been particularly restricted. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_flying_machines#Man-carrying_kites https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_flying_machines#Man-carr...