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Purely anecdotal but in my experience of the two big recessions I've lived through, it's not the predictions of imminent doom you should worry about. It's the s

Purely anecdotal but in my experience of the two big recessions I've lived through, it's not the predictions of imminent doom you should worry about. It's the slew of articles that predict "no end in sight" that seem to come right at the peak. It's likely a coincidental observation on my part but maybe, just maybe it's the heavy hitters seeing a slow down trying to pump confidence back into the markets.

thisisit 9y ago
I guess what has changed is the amount of news and media people can have access to nowadays. In good old days, dissenting opinions were pushed into the inner folds of a magazine and all "no end in sight" news on the front page, because everything was about delivering good news and optimism. Nowadays articles exist as a website link ie there is not really a frontpage of sorts and then being negative sells a lot. Though it will be interesting to put together what the print edition of newspapers are predicting - boom or bust?
- ch4s3 9y ago
  Out of curiosity, if you don't mind sharing, roughly how old are you? Or rather when do you mean "old days"? I'm in my early 30's and my earliest memories of the news were Bush Sr. breaking his no tax pledge, which was covered negatively, even though it was sensible, and the shit mess in Iraq.
  - thisisit 9y ago
    I am also in my early 30s ;) I used to read print edition newspapers everyday till 2008/10. Let me clarify what I mean by negativity. Newspapers were (are?) about popular opinion. So, when the markets were doing great, you get all caps, huge typeset about the new highs markets were making. Anyone who questioned that was relegated to inside pages. Same was true when market tanked. All caps, huge typeset words about "blood in the street" or "Black x day". Anyone who disagreed and said - time to buy stocks was relegated to inside pages. They were about reflecting or shaping popular opinion. Same was true for Bush Sr and his tax pledge. Nowadays, I can link to a some blog which says this is a high and market will crash soon. In which case, the metric of waiting for "to the moon" article might no longer hold true.
pmorici 9y ago
Do you read this article as "no end in sight" or "eminent doom"? It certainly seems like there are record levels of complacency in some respects and at ~9 years this bull market is long in the tooth.
qaq 9y ago
Yep was just thinking the same thing when reading the article
hellofunk 9y ago
What you are talking about is sentiment analysis, and you are right that tops often form when everyone is raving about the unstoppable force of the market. I know many traders whose careers are based on mainly on sentiment study; it's not just mere anecdotes.
deleted 9y ago
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thisisit 9y ago

I guess what has changed is the amount of news and media people can have access to nowadays. In good old days, dissenting opinions were pushed into the inner folds of a magazine and all "no end in sight" news on the front page, because everything was about delivering good news and optimism. Nowadays articles exist as a website link ie there is not really a frontpage of sorts and then being negative sells a lot. Though it will be interesting to put together what the print edition of newspapers are predicting - boom or bust?

ch4s3 9y ago
Out of curiosity, if you don't mind sharing, roughly how old are you? Or rather when do you mean "old days"? I'm in my early 30's and my earliest memories of the news were Bush Sr. breaking his no tax pledge, which was covered negatively, even though it was sensible, and the shit mess in Iraq.
- thisisit 9y ago
  I am also in my early 30s ;) I used to read print edition newspapers everyday till 2008/10. Let me clarify what I mean by negativity. Newspapers were (are?) about popular opinion. So, when the markets were doing great, you get all caps, huge typeset about the new highs markets were making. Anyone who questioned that was relegated to inside pages. Same was true when market tanked. All caps, huge typeset words about "blood in the street" or "Black x day". Anyone who disagreed and said - time to buy stocks was relegated to inside pages. They were about reflecting or shaping popular opinion. Same was true for Bush Sr and his tax pledge. Nowadays, I can link to a some blog which says this is a high and market will crash soon. In which case, the metric of waiting for "to the moon" article might no longer hold true.

pmorici 9y ago

Do you read this article as "no end in sight" or "eminent doom"? It certainly seems like there are record levels of complacency in some respects and at ~9 years this bull market is long in the tooth.

qaq 9y ago

Yep was just thinking the same thing when reading the article

hellofunk 9y ago

What you are talking about is sentiment analysis, and you are right that tops often form when everyone is raving about the unstoppable force of the market. I know many traders whose careers are based on mainly on sentiment study; it's not just mere anecdotes.

deleted 9y ago

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