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>> I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. reply It's almost inevitable
by lovemenot 9y ago
>> I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet.
reply
It's almost inevitable that some local would be able to identify extreme local patterns.
To generalise the result though, a problem you'd have, if you turn out to be one such local, is figuring out the extent to which your experience is common, or just down to unfortunate local factors.
- japhyr 9y agoI'm talking about connecting specific factors with specific outcomes. When it's raining hard and I want to assess slide risk for my own sake, I look at a few factors: total rainfall over a short time period; average wind speeds and gusts; and how quickly the rivers are rising. I think I might have a sense of a signature of these three factors that predict a higher chance of slide activity. I want to run a more careful analysis of those factors, and see if I can come up with an actionable signature for slide risk. Even if it works for just this town, it will be really helpful. But I know enough not to say much about that locally unless I have a concrete proposal.
- lovemenot 9y agoI see. Over the years, there's been a lot of similar research into localised earthquake prediction. Results are not actionable yet. I am not at all informed on the subject, but hours-since-last-slide(s), their proximity and magnitude would be some additional factors you might consider using. If historical weather and geo-tagged slide data is available for the whole region, you could use it to train and test models.