8 ms·

I live in southeast Alaska, and climate change frightens me here as well. Our area, a temperate rainforest with steep mountains rising almost straight up from

by japhyr 9y ago

I live in southeast Alaska, and climate change frightens me here as well. Our area, a temperate rainforest with steep mountains rising almost straight up from the ocean, has always experienced landslides. You can see slide scars throughout the mountains, from a boat or from a plane. But in recent years we've had a few that cause people to be much more concerned about the possibility of being caught in a slide. Two years ago there was a slide in town (Sitka) that killed three people. Before that there was a slide that took out a remote cabin, and the two people staying at the cabin barely outran the slide. Now every time it rains hard people talk to each other about the risk of slides. Meteorologists' predictions haven't helped much, because most slide forecasts are just general statements about an elevated risk of slides for the entire region. No one can predict a high likelihood of slides in particular locations, so everyone is left to evaluate the risk for themselves in deciding whether to stay at home during heavy rain. We live in a rainforest, but most of our rain comes from light steady rain most of the year. We have some heavier rainfall events in the spring and fall. It seems the slides have happened during periods of intense heavy rain - 2+ inches over the course of several hours. What scares me about climate change is what might happen if we end up with significantly heavier amounts of rainfall in short periods of time. What happens if we get 6+ inches in a day like we've seen more recently in other regions? When I get a lull between my various projects I'm going to do some analysis of our long-term weather data, and try to correlate it with slide events. I'm curious to see if the rainfall patterns are changing over time, beyond just total amounts each year. I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet.

lovemenot 9y ago
>> I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. reply It's almost inevitable that some local would be able to identify extreme local patterns. To generalise the result though, a problem you'd have, if you turn out to be one such local, is figuring out the extent to which your experience is common, or just down to unfortunate local factors.
- japhyr 9y ago
  I'm talking about connecting specific factors with specific outcomes. When it's raining hard and I want to assess slide risk for my own sake, I look at a few factors: total rainfall over a short time period; average wind speeds and gusts; and how quickly the rivers are rising. I think I might have a sense of a signature of these three factors that predict a higher chance of slide activity. I want to run a more careful analysis of those factors, and see if I can come up with an actionable signature for slide risk. Even if it works for just this town, it will be really helpful. But I know enough not to say much about that locally unless I have a concrete proposal.
  - lovemenot 9y ago
    I see. Over the years, there's been a lot of similar research into localised earthquake prediction. Results are not actionable yet. I am not at all informed on the subject, but hours-since-last-slide(s), their proximity and magnitude would be some additional factors you might consider using. If historical weather and geo-tagged slide data is available for the whole region, you could use it to train and test models.
KGIII 9y ago
I went to boarding school in the same State I now live in. I have seen the climate change. Even in the decade since my retirement, the climate has changed. It's had an interesting effect in that the summer hasn't had many hot days, but the average is higher. This year, I only had a couple of days go above 90 deg f. My winter has fewer longer cold snaps, but some pretty steep cold snaps (-48 deg f this past year was the record). My snow totals have actually increased from area historical norms. I've been able to get the historical data and have a weather station that logs my local conditions. There's also a bit of microclimate effect going on here. I'm not a climate scientist, so I am really only capable of comparing the results. If it wasn't so damaging, I'd be all for it. I love snow and hate when it goes above 90. I don't get grumpy until it goes below -20. It's too bad that it's going to cause lots of damage for other people. Sort of related: You can get the data and run the models yourself. I used to model traffic and there are some similarities. It seemed like a good thing to learn a bit about, so I spent a couple of years poking at it in my free time.
- ThrustVectoring 9y ago
  In areas that typically get cold enough for snow, increased snow totals are an expected outcome of global warming. Global warming causes more moisture to get into the air in general, and moisture in the air eventually returns to earth in the form of precipitation. During cold winters, this means more snow.
  - KGIII 9y ago
    Yup, it's the expected outcome. Some of the models predict what I'm seeing with the lack of extremes in the summer, as well. I'm not a climate scientist and only got into it to win an Internet Argument. It was very important, at the time. ;-) Basically, I'd worked with modeling large data sets in a chaotic system (traffic) and knew that 'adjusting the data' was legitimate. This was when people were complaining about the scientists changing the data they used in their models. So, I started poking. I spent about two years poking at it. I also learned that the rumors seemed to be untrue. I was able to email and get unadjusted data - even without credentials. I say 'seemed' because this was after the email disclosures. If you just want a copy of a paper and you don't feel like paying for it or hitting up your local university library, you can even just email one of the authors. I did that a couple of times and have had nothing but cooperation.
bm1362 9y ago
I want to funnel my Bay Area salary into some land out in Alaska for family retreats and off periods in between work. How is it living out there?
- xenihn 9y ago
  Not Bay Area, but I'm also interested. Where/how do you start looking?
- japhyr 9y ago
  Here in Sitka, land is really expensive because most of the flat and easily buildable land has already been claimed and developed. That's contributing to the seriousness of the landslide threat. There's an interesting project going on outside of Valdez. A couple people are setting up to do their tech work up here. They call themselves Geeks in the Woods [0]; I haven't followed their work other than keeping an eye on their instagram account [1]. I've often thought of trying to host a tech gathering up here at some point in the future. It's a great location for doing good tech focused work, and then disconnecting fully to regain perspective, then going back to your tech work. It's a great place for remote work, there's just very little networking with others in tech here. As for a really specific answer to your question, Alaska is so varied that you have to ask about a specific part of the state. Any particular area you're interested in? [0] https://www.geekwire.com/2017/drop-tune-seattle-mobile-analytics-companys-founders-set-tech-outpost-alaska/ https://www.geekwire.com/2017/drop-tune-seattle-mobile-analy... [1] https://www.instagram.com/geeksinthewoods/ https://www.instagram.com/geeksinthewoods/
  - sethrin 9y ago
    What exactly does it mean to set up a "tech hub" of two people, in a town of 4000, in rural Alaska? I'm not sure I get the core concept there. Full disclosure: I was born and raised in Valdez.
ggcdn 9y ago
> try to correlate it with slide events Interesting idea, have you though about how you plan on making the correlation? Two thoughts I just wanted to throw out there: -As slopes fail, I think they tend to stabilize themselves, so it might be that only increasingly intense periods of rainfall would cause further slides. -Slope stability depends on pore water pressure, which is more akin to ground water saturation, rather than rainfall. The two can probably be related, but its going to depend on the rainfall intensity minus the losses from permeability of the soil (together, they introduce time into the equation)
- japhyr 9y ago
  I alluded to this in another comment, but I'll be a little more specific. When it's raining hard and I want to assess slide risk for my own sake, I look at several factors: - what's the total rainfall over the last ~6 hours; - what are the average wind speeds, and gusts? - how quickly are the rivers rising, and how much have they risen overall? I think there's a signature in here, where if all these factors are above critical values then a slide is much more likely to occur. I need to test this by identifying how often this set of critical values have been reached over the last xx years, and then see if that correlates to known slide activity. I think the river gauge is an indirect measure of ground water saturation. If the river gauge is rising at maximum steepness, that's an indication that the ground is fully saturated. If it's raining hard and the river gauge is not rising at maximum steepness, then the ground isn't fully saturated. That's why the river gauge is a key part of this slide risk signature. Fortunately we've had a river gauge in place since before the recent spate of slides. These discussions are motivating me to take the next steps on this analysis. I think I'll do some analysis tonight, and see how far I can get. > As slopes fail, I think they tend to stabilize themselves, so it might be that only increasingly intense periods of rainfall would cause further slides. That's an interesting thought. There's lots of steep land, so there's plenty of land that hasn't slid for a long time but could slide under the right conditions. Repeated slides probably won't release as much material, but then again slides remove what vegetation was holding a slope together. So if a slide doesn't fully unload a slope, I wonder how stable the remaining debris might be.
Mz 9y ago
I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. If you start a blog or spread sheet or other means to track local slides events, you may be able to develop some data of your own. This could give you an advantage. IIRC, the best info we have on Krakatoa is from the journal of a woman who was fascinated by the lead up events without realizing what it portended.
jmcqk6 9y ago
>When I get a lull between my various projects I'm going to do some analysis of our long-term weather data, and try to correlate it with slide events. I'm curious to see if the rainfall patterns are changing over time, beyond just total amounts each year. I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. I would recommend starting with a literature search first. It's likely that people have already studied this. There is already a well understood relationship between rainfall and landslides, so I'm curious as to what you're looking for exactly. Remember, you're unlikely to stumble upon something in a few hours that people spend their entire lives looking at.

by japhyr 9y ago

lovemenot 9y ago

>> I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. reply It's almost inevitable that some local would be able to identify extreme local patterns. To generalise the result though, a problem you'd have, if you turn out to be one such local, is figuring out the extent to which your experience is common, or just down to unfortunate local factors.

japhyr 9y ago
I'm talking about connecting specific factors with specific outcomes. When it's raining hard and I want to assess slide risk for my own sake, I look at a few factors: total rainfall over a short time period; average wind speeds and gusts; and how quickly the rivers are rising. I think I might have a sense of a signature of these three factors that predict a higher chance of slide activity. I want to run a more careful analysis of those factors, and see if I can come up with an actionable signature for slide risk. Even if it works for just this town, it will be really helpful. But I know enough not to say much about that locally unless I have a concrete proposal.
- lovemenot 9y ago
  I see. Over the years, there's been a lot of similar research into localised earthquake prediction. Results are not actionable yet. I am not at all informed on the subject, but hours-since-last-slide(s), their proximity and magnitude would be some additional factors you might consider using. If historical weather and geo-tagged slide data is available for the whole region, you could use it to train and test models.

KGIII 9y ago

I went to boarding school in the same State I now live in. I have seen the climate change. Even in the decade since my retirement, the climate has changed. It's had an interesting effect in that the summer hasn't had many hot days, but the average is higher. This year, I only had a couple of days go above 90 deg f. My winter has fewer longer cold snaps, but some pretty steep cold snaps (-48 deg f this past year was the record). My snow totals have actually increased from area historical norms. I've been able to get the historical data and have a weather station that logs my local conditions. There's also a bit of microclimate effect going on here. I'm not a climate scientist, so I am really only capable of comparing the results. If it wasn't so damaging, I'd be all for it. I love snow and hate when it goes above 90. I don't get grumpy until it goes below -20. It's too bad that it's going to cause lots of damage for other people. Sort of related: You can get the data and run the models yourself. I used to model traffic and there are some similarities. It seemed like a good thing to learn a bit about, so I spent a couple of years poking at it in my free time.

ThrustVectoring 9y ago
In areas that typically get cold enough for snow, increased snow totals are an expected outcome of global warming. Global warming causes more moisture to get into the air in general, and moisture in the air eventually returns to earth in the form of precipitation. During cold winters, this means more snow.
- KGIII 9y ago
  Yup, it's the expected outcome. Some of the models predict what I'm seeing with the lack of extremes in the summer, as well. I'm not a climate scientist and only got into it to win an Internet Argument. It was very important, at the time. ;-) Basically, I'd worked with modeling large data sets in a chaotic system (traffic) and knew that 'adjusting the data' was legitimate. This was when people were complaining about the scientists changing the data they used in their models. So, I started poking. I spent about two years poking at it. I also learned that the rumors seemed to be untrue. I was able to email and get unadjusted data - even without credentials. I say 'seemed' because this was after the email disclosures. If you just want a copy of a paper and you don't feel like paying for it or hitting up your local university library, you can even just email one of the authors. I did that a couple of times and have had nothing but cooperation.

bm1362 9y ago

I want to funnel my Bay Area salary into some land out in Alaska for family retreats and off periods in between work. How is it living out there?

xenihn 9y ago
Not Bay Area, but I'm also interested. Where/how do you start looking?
japhyr 9y ago
Here in Sitka, land is really expensive because most of the flat and easily buildable land has already been claimed and developed. That's contributing to the seriousness of the landslide threat. There's an interesting project going on outside of Valdez. A couple people are setting up to do their tech work up here. They call themselves Geeks in the Woods [0]; I haven't followed their work other than keeping an eye on their instagram account [1]. I've often thought of trying to host a tech gathering up here at some point in the future. It's a great location for doing good tech focused work, and then disconnecting fully to regain perspective, then going back to your tech work. It's a great place for remote work, there's just very little networking with others in tech here. As for a really specific answer to your question, Alaska is so varied that you have to ask about a specific part of the state. Any particular area you're interested in? [0] https://www.geekwire.com/2017/drop-tune-seattle-mobile-analytics-companys-founders-set-tech-outpost-alaska/ https://www.geekwire.com/2017/drop-tune-seattle-mobile-analy... [1] https://www.instagram.com/geeksinthewoods/ https://www.instagram.com/geeksinthewoods/
- sethrin 9y ago
  What exactly does it mean to set up a "tech hub" of two people, in a town of 4000, in rural Alaska? I'm not sure I get the core concept there. Full disclosure: I was born and raised in Valdez.

ggcdn 9y ago

> try to correlate it with slide events Interesting idea, have you though about how you plan on making the correlation? Two thoughts I just wanted to throw out there: -As slopes fail, I think they tend to stabilize themselves, so it might be that only increasingly intense periods of rainfall would cause further slides. -Slope stability depends on pore water pressure, which is more akin to ground water saturation, rather than rainfall. The two can probably be related, but its going to depend on the rainfall intensity minus the losses from permeability of the soil (together, they introduce time into the equation)

japhyr 9y ago
I alluded to this in another comment, but I'll be a little more specific. When it's raining hard and I want to assess slide risk for my own sake, I look at several factors: - what's the total rainfall over the last ~6 hours; - what are the average wind speeds, and gusts? - how quickly are the rivers rising, and how much have they risen overall? I think there's a signature in here, where if all these factors are above critical values then a slide is much more likely to occur. I need to test this by identifying how often this set of critical values have been reached over the last xx years, and then see if that correlates to known slide activity. I think the river gauge is an indirect measure of ground water saturation. If the river gauge is rising at maximum steepness, that's an indication that the ground is fully saturated. If it's raining hard and the river gauge is not rising at maximum steepness, then the ground isn't fully saturated. That's why the river gauge is a key part of this slide risk signature. Fortunately we've had a river gauge in place since before the recent spate of slides. These discussions are motivating me to take the next steps on this analysis. I think I'll do some analysis tonight, and see how far I can get. > As slopes fail, I think they tend to stabilize themselves, so it might be that only increasingly intense periods of rainfall would cause further slides. That's an interesting thought. There's lots of steep land, so there's plenty of land that hasn't slid for a long time but could slide under the right conditions. Repeated slides probably won't release as much material, but then again slides remove what vegetation was holding a slope together. So if a slide doesn't fully unload a slope, I wonder how stable the remaining debris might be.

Mz 9y ago

I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. If you start a blog or spread sheet or other means to track local slides events, you may be able to develop some data of your own. This could give you an advantage. IIRC, the best info we have on Krakatoa is from the journal of a woman who was fascinated by the lead up events without realizing what it portended.

jmcqk6 9y ago

>When I get a lull between my various projects I'm going to do some analysis of our long-term weather data, and try to correlate it with slide events. I'm curious to see if the rainfall patterns are changing over time, beyond just total amounts each year. I'm curious to see if I, as a local, can identify some weather patterns here that outside meteorologists haven't noticed yet. I would recommend starting with a literature search first. It's likely that people have already studied this. There is already a well understood relationship between rainfall and landslides, so I'm curious as to what you're looking for exactly. Remember, you're unlikely to stumble upon something in a few hours that people spend their entire lives looking at.