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This is very sad and sickening. I wonder where we are headed with this. I hope that these countries will somehow start treating this stream as scarce resource,

by baxtr 9y ago

This is very sad and sickening. I wonder where we are headed with this. I hope that these countries will somehow start treating this stream as scarce resource, but I believe western style environmentalism is quite a stretch. If the Nile collapses Europe will see refugees streams of unimaginable magnitude.

f2f 9y ago
No community which experiences overpopulation will survive... If you want a good walkthrough of historical evidence that population control leads to a stable community check Jared Diamond's "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed". I suggest you read it and form an opinion before you check the discourse on it.
calcifer 9y ago
> If the Nile collapses When, really. > western style environmentalism is quite a stretch Africa's natural resources have been raped and pillaged by the west for many decades. Even today, most people in the west simply don't realize how the effects of that era are still felt strongly. Millions living under extreme poverty do not have the luxury of thinking about the environment when the price of that thought is not putting food on the table. Same can be said for the massive population growth. Birth control requires education, which requires prosperity, which Africa lacks almost completely. > If the Nile collapses Europe will see refugees streams of unimaginable magnitude. As someone in Western Europe who definitely believes this day will come, soon, I can only say we reap what we sow. The crimes of past European powers (think Belgian Congo for a single example) are slowly but surely catching up with the current generation and I think it's way too late to avoid the consequences.
- wbl 9y ago
  Mauritania already underwent the demographic transition. The Nile is no worse then the rivers of the US 50 years ago.
- UweSchmidt 9y ago
  "We reap what we sow" assumes an old testament concept of multi generational collective guilt and picturing your migration scenario penance, or divine(?) punishment sounds a little weird. Also, give Africa a little credit, literacy rates are up, maybe the problems can be tackled right over there? https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ourworldindata_literacy-rate-by-age-in-middle-east-and-northern-africa.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ourwor...
  - babygoat 9y ago
    How about “Our children reap what we sow”?
    - UweSchmidt 9y ago
      How about trying to correctly attribute guilt to specific persons, committing specific crimes instead? Geopolitics is complicated and neither of us can take very little credit/guilt for the actions of any political entity that I happen to be part of.
      - pm90 9y ago
        While I agree that we must hold specific people accountable for their actions, atrocities cannot be carried out in the scale they were in Africa without the support of the societies that these individuals hailed from. In fact, the very racist viewpoints that contributed to the horrific actions didn't just happen by default; it is the host societies which held these views, and these individuals perhaps only took it to the most extreme conclusion. I agree that Geopolitics is complicated and don't really agree with applying "karma" to societies and nations, mostly because its not very constructive. But one has to admit that the facts do seem to paint that picture.
      - Mtinie 9y ago
        That’s fine, no guilt assignment in that case, just the current day outcomes of past generational decision making.
      - 9y ago
- vacri 9y ago
  > The crimes of past European powers (think Belgian Congo for a single example) That's underselling it. It's not a 'single example', it's 'the most extreme example'. When you're mistreating your African colonies so badly that even other colonial nations are asking you to back off with the horror, that's pretty bad.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  "Africa's natural resources have been raped and pillaged by the west for many decades. " Wrong. If you mean 'Oil (or some other commodity) was extracted mostly by Africans and sold to Westerners or Asians' - then sure. There is no 'raping' or 'pillaging' done by anyone, if there are negative consequences, it's almost invariably by the African 'leaders' themselves who are among the most corrupt and brutal in the world. 'The West' would be very happy if the leader/warlords invested in industry, and distributed their wealth more fairly. We'd be very happy if they took their billion dollar IMF loans - which were designed for infrastructure projects - and actually built those infrastructure projects as opposed to squandering it in so many ways from top to bottom - leaving the various countries with an ugly balance sheet. Where there has been more responsibility - such as in Botswana 's diamond extraction - we've seen more intelligent distribution of wealth, and as a result, higher standard of living etc..
- chewz 9y ago
  You cannot blame colonisation for everything for centuries. Those people made their own choices in recent decades embracing uncontrolled population growth and wasteful, unlimited consumption without any attempt to mitigate the results.
  - smnrchrds 9y ago
    > wasteful, unlimited consumption That's where you are wrong. Their problems do not stem from wastefulness and greed, but necessity. It is not like farmers in impoverished countries cut down forests and use it as farmland so they can buy a better BMW, or that they sped so much on takeout that they can't afford to pay for a modern up-to-date irrigation system. They do what they do because it's the only way they can survive, to not starve. A few trillion dollars in infrastructure investment could solve the environmental issues for good, but that's the few trillions they do not have, which they would have had it if colonialism did not happen. If you have enough budget for either importing wheat so that your population would not starve or a new water treatment facility, guess which one you would choose. That's where this whole idea comes from that the European countries, who have enriched themselves at the expense of Africa, must help them rebuild their countries they destroyed.
    - chewz 9y ago
      To stick to Egypt example - population keept at the level of ca 4 millions (within current borders) for hundreds of years. Since 1970 to today population doubled from 40 to 80 million with no signs of abating. Nor any political effort to stop it. This has nothing to do with colonisation. Expotenial growth had impacted environment in spite of any sensible policies to either stop poluation growth or mitigate it’s impact on enviroment. This is result of poor policing in a Egypt. The country had enough resources to pursue different policies and just didn’t.
      - Jedd 9y ago
        It's worse than that. From TFA: > Egypt’s numbers have more than quadrupled since 1960; Ethiopia is adding roughly 2.5 million new people a year. The basin’s total population is on track to double to 500 million by 2050. And it's not a political effort that's required to reign that in -- except insofar as within certain countries, politics and religion are so interwoven that it's either impossible, or perhaps merely pointless, to try to separate them.
Tangurena2 9y ago
When it collapses. Much of the strife in Syria is caused by the damming of the Tigris and Euphrates in Turkey. The drought causing much of the farmers' fields to dry up, rural wells to dry up, and the resulting migration of peasants to cities (who can't handle the newcomers) caused much of anger underlying their civil war. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/water-shortages-unite-iraq-islamic-state-against-turkey https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/water-sho... https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/66059/turkeys-massive-dam-building-creating-problems https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/66059/turkeys-m...
pm90 9y ago
> but I believe western style environmentalism is quite a stretch. I don't think so. In fact, it might be a great opportunity if we were able to create a system that would allow for accountable steps towards environmental protection. One reason why western societies work so well is that despite having more taxes and regulations, the tax revenue are generally used judiciously and the regulations followed in good faith by most participants. This just doesn't happen in many non-western countries, where corruption is more common. But just like the World Bank provides funding for specific infrastructure projects, perhaps this can be extended for environmental projects as well.
hourislate 9y ago
In the next 50 - 100 years children in NA will never experience snow. Ice in the Arctic Region will not exist. Every reef on the planet will be basically dead, Ocean acidity will kill off much of the fish. Water scarcity in North Africa, Middle East and South Asia will drive the largest migration the earth has ever seen. Billions on the move looking for food and water. The first world will not be spared, we will survive because of our wealth and technology but it will draw all who are trying to survive. 10's of 1000's showing up on the shores of NA ever day. The Planet is dying unless some miracle happens.....

by baxtr 9y ago

f2f 9y ago

No community which experiences overpopulation will survive... If you want a good walkthrough of historical evidence that population control leads to a stable community check Jared Diamond's "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed". I suggest you read it and form an opinion before you check the discourse on it.

calcifer 9y ago

> If the Nile collapses When, really. > western style environmentalism is quite a stretch Africa's natural resources have been raped and pillaged by the west for many decades. Even today, most people in the west simply don't realize how the effects of that era are still felt strongly. Millions living under extreme poverty do not have the luxury of thinking about the environment when the price of that thought is not putting food on the table. Same can be said for the massive population growth. Birth control requires education, which requires prosperity, which Africa lacks almost completely. > If the Nile collapses Europe will see refugees streams of unimaginable magnitude. As someone in Western Europe who definitely believes this day will come, soon, I can only say we reap what we sow. The crimes of past European powers (think Belgian Congo for a single example) are slowly but surely catching up with the current generation and I think it's way too late to avoid the consequences.

wbl 9y ago
Mauritania already underwent the demographic transition. The Nile is no worse then the rivers of the US 50 years ago.
UweSchmidt 9y ago
"We reap what we sow" assumes an old testament concept of multi generational collective guilt and picturing your migration scenario penance, or divine(?) punishment sounds a little weird. Also, give Africa a little credit, literacy rates are up, maybe the problems can be tackled right over there? https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ourworldindata_literacy-rate-by-age-in-middle-east-and-northern-africa.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/ourwor...
- babygoat 9y ago
  How about “Our children reap what we sow”?
  - UweSchmidt 9y ago
    How about trying to correctly attribute guilt to specific persons, committing specific crimes instead? Geopolitics is complicated and neither of us can take very little credit/guilt for the actions of any political entity that I happen to be part of.
    - pm90 9y ago
      While I agree that we must hold specific people accountable for their actions, atrocities cannot be carried out in the scale they were in Africa without the support of the societies that these individuals hailed from. In fact, the very racist viewpoints that contributed to the horrific actions didn't just happen by default; it is the host societies which held these views, and these individuals perhaps only took it to the most extreme conclusion. I agree that Geopolitics is complicated and don't really agree with applying "karma" to societies and nations, mostly because its not very constructive. But one has to admit that the facts do seem to paint that picture.
    - Mtinie 9y ago
      That’s fine, no guilt assignment in that case, just the current day outcomes of past generational decision making.
    - 9y ago
vacri 9y ago
> The crimes of past European powers (think Belgian Congo for a single example) That's underselling it. It's not a 'single example', it's 'the most extreme example'. When you're mistreating your African colonies so badly that even other colonial nations are asking you to back off with the horror, that's pretty bad.
alexasmyths 9y ago
"Africa's natural resources have been raped and pillaged by the west for many decades. " Wrong. If you mean 'Oil (or some other commodity) was extracted mostly by Africans and sold to Westerners or Asians' - then sure. There is no 'raping' or 'pillaging' done by anyone, if there are negative consequences, it's almost invariably by the African 'leaders' themselves who are among the most corrupt and brutal in the world. 'The West' would be very happy if the leader/warlords invested in industry, and distributed their wealth more fairly. We'd be very happy if they took their billion dollar IMF loans - which were designed for infrastructure projects - and actually built those infrastructure projects as opposed to squandering it in so many ways from top to bottom - leaving the various countries with an ugly balance sheet. Where there has been more responsibility - such as in Botswana 's diamond extraction - we've seen more intelligent distribution of wealth, and as a result, higher standard of living etc..
chewz 9y ago
You cannot blame colonisation for everything for centuries. Those people made their own choices in recent decades embracing uncontrolled population growth and wasteful, unlimited consumption without any attempt to mitigate the results.
- smnrchrds 9y ago
  > wasteful, unlimited consumption That's where you are wrong. Their problems do not stem from wastefulness and greed, but necessity. It is not like farmers in impoverished countries cut down forests and use it as farmland so they can buy a better BMW, or that they sped so much on takeout that they can't afford to pay for a modern up-to-date irrigation system. They do what they do because it's the only way they can survive, to not starve. A few trillion dollars in infrastructure investment could solve the environmental issues for good, but that's the few trillions they do not have, which they would have had it if colonialism did not happen. If you have enough budget for either importing wheat so that your population would not starve or a new water treatment facility, guess which one you would choose. That's where this whole idea comes from that the European countries, who have enriched themselves at the expense of Africa, must help them rebuild their countries they destroyed.
  - chewz 9y ago
    To stick to Egypt example - population keept at the level of ca 4 millions (within current borders) for hundreds of years. Since 1970 to today population doubled from 40 to 80 million with no signs of abating. Nor any political effort to stop it. This has nothing to do with colonisation. Expotenial growth had impacted environment in spite of any sensible policies to either stop poluation growth or mitigate it’s impact on enviroment. This is result of poor policing in a Egypt. The country had enough resources to pursue different policies and just didn’t.
    - Jedd 9y ago
      It's worse than that. From TFA: > Egypt’s numbers have more than quadrupled since 1960; Ethiopia is adding roughly 2.5 million new people a year. The basin’s total population is on track to double to 500 million by 2050. And it's not a political effort that's required to reign that in -- except insofar as within certain countries, politics and religion are so interwoven that it's either impossible, or perhaps merely pointless, to try to separate them.

Tangurena2 9y ago

When it collapses. Much of the strife in Syria is caused by the damming of the Tigris and Euphrates in Turkey. The drought causing much of the farmers' fields to dry up, rural wells to dry up, and the resulting migration of peasants to cities (who can't handle the newcomers) caused much of anger underlying their civil war. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/water-shortages-unite-iraq-islamic-state-against-turkey https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/water-sho... https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/66059/turkeys-massive-dam-building-creating-problems https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/66059/turkeys-m...

pm90 9y ago

> but I believe western style environmentalism is quite a stretch. I don't think so. In fact, it might be a great opportunity if we were able to create a system that would allow for accountable steps towards environmental protection. One reason why western societies work so well is that despite having more taxes and regulations, the tax revenue are generally used judiciously and the regulations followed in good faith by most participants. This just doesn't happen in many non-western countries, where corruption is more common. But just like the World Bank provides funding for specific infrastructure projects, perhaps this can be extended for environmental projects as well.

hourislate 9y ago

In the next 50 - 100 years children in NA will never experience snow. Ice in the Arctic Region will not exist. Every reef on the planet will be basically dead, Ocean acidity will kill off much of the fish. Water scarcity in North Africa, Middle East and South Asia will drive the largest migration the earth has ever seen. Billions on the move looking for food and water. The first world will not be spared, we will survive because of our wealth and technology but it will draw all who are trying to survive. 10's of 1000's showing up on the shores of NA ever day. The Planet is dying unless some miracle happens.....