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I'm not sure about those being 10x bigger in terms of pure numbers. But it's possible. Some multiplier when compared to smartphones is def possible. There's a c
by skinnymuch 9y ago
I'm not sure about those being 10x bigger in terms of pure numbers. But it's possible. Some multiplier when compared to smartphones is def possible. There's a chance something with IoT or AI will happen or come out in a decade or two that will be so obvious and so ubiquitous and not limited to just one persons use or only one is wanted per person.
Like I said in another child comment, smartphones for 5B people is already playing a bit loose with the device usage. A decent number of phones out already are cheap or old Androids or iPhones that are five generations old. A number of those people don't use their smartphone as many readers on HN might use theirs.
So thinking that way with some future advances with IoT, automation, and/or AI, there could be something that comes out and is wanted in mass numbers, more than one per person.
But really. Who knows :p
- foobarchu 9y agoI think you could say the same about whatever numbers they were using for laptops a decade ago, or PC's 15 years ago. The market is never realistically represented by the estimates.
- skinnymuch 9y agoI guess I meant I doubt the way certain big segments of the population using their phones changes a lot in the future. It feels like a sizable portion will still use their phones in a very basic fashion like I was describing.
- leggomylibro 9y ago10 things per person is 10x bigger. Hm...what if someone had a removable eink tattoo to sell you? But nah, you could argue that the app market is already way more than 10 per device.
- CamelCaseName 9y agoIs 10x the revenue considered 10x bigger? If so, I see driverless vehicles (or the driverless vehicle's OS) as an obvious 10x market.
- leggomylibro 9y agoYeah, that could do it. Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trucks_(short_story) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trucks_(short_story)
- paul7986 9y agoIm thinking the next big thing like the smartphone will be a shift towards what we see in this Magic Leap video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmdXJy_IdNw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmdXJy_IdNw yet you don't have to wear a headset to experience/interact with it. Also mix in digital voice assistants, which voice assistants should now be showing me things on all my screens and the walls around me. LIke Alexa show the traffic or weather and boom it appears on the walls around you (an idea i was working on but its too big of an idea with a small team & no money).
- warrenm 9y ago10x vs smartphones seems plausible: smart cars, smart speakers, smart lights, smart thermostats, smart watches, other wearables ....