Adding to DuskStar's reply: There will likely not be any development or indication, short of the first functional AGI, that will make experts agree that AGI is

Adding to DuskStar's reply: There will likely not be any development or indication, short of the first functional AGI, that will make experts agree that AGI is right around the corner, and that now an appropriate time to devote a lot of resources to figuring out how to _safely_ create superhuman AGI.