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Oh, of course! The article itself puts some effort into repeatedly stating the fact that people are saying 50 years does not in any way imply it will actually b
by DuskStar 9y ago
Oh, of course! The article itself puts some effort into repeatedly stating the fact that people are saying 50 years does not in any way imply it will actually be 2 years and it might well be 500.
- backpropaganda 9y agoThis is a useless claim though. There are an infinite number of things that could happen that would be very bad for Earth that could happen anytime between 2 to 1000 years from now. We're bad at forecasting ALL of them. We can't use this indeterminacy to prove we should be working on X when the same is applicable to another thing Y.
- sago 9y agoBut equally, because we aren't working on all of them, doesn't mean it isn't worth working on any. Also, be careful not to confuse uncertain duration with more general uncertainty. They are related, but not the same.
- edanm 9y agoWell we can decide what seems more or less likely. I mean, yes, an asteroid could impact the earth and destroy all life on it. But we have some guesses as to the probability that that happens. Clearly, by itself, the world will most likely not kill off humanity, since it hasn't happened in the thousands/millions years we've been around. The one big thing that is changing is humanity itself and the technology we're making - that's the X factor, that's what statistically speaking has a chance of actually wiping us out. Many of the people concerned about AGI are also concerned about e.g. manufactured viruses and other forms of technology.