5 ms·

Not at all. Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place, or are expanded (EFTA, Schengen). These are not the same thing as the EU.

by Radim 9y ago

Not at all. Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place, or are expanded (EFTA, Schengen). These are not the same thing as the EU. In fact, smart businesses will new open offices in UK (outside of EU), just to hedge their bets on the future. Buy low, sell high.

alphadevx 9y ago
> Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place But isn't that what membership of the EU gives the UK today? So give up the membership, you give those up to. It's kind of the whole point of the EU.
- Radim 9y ago
  Unfortunately not. Not even close. EU is a political union -- it subsumed the European Economic Community and (partially) the Schengen Agreement and gradually added a lot of political centralization on top. Scary how people equate those, without understanding the (monstrous) difference.
  - alphadevx 9y ago
    If the EU is a political union, how come we don't have pan-European parties and elections yet? And a centralized budget? And common taxes? And common defense? I'm sorry but it is not even close to being a political union, unlike the USA for example.
    - Radim 9y ago
      I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic (it's hard to tell on the internet), but just in case: All the things you list have either been already implemented in the EU, or their implementation is being actively discussed. The gradual loss of sovereignty (the so-called "salami method") is also what prompted many people to vote for Brexit. Not everyone was a knuckle-dragging racist.
verytrivial 9y ago
> Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place You appear to be reading different newspapers than I do. They are all reporting "forget it" to these options.
- Radim 9y ago
  You're right of course. In the end, politics is all about power. With vindictiveness a big part of it -- a more powerful and venerable strategy than mere economic rationality. Where power originates with people, manipulating the general opinion is the ultimate source of power. Ever heard of "bank runs"? It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy -- once you manage to scare enough people, you can shape reality. Healthy banks fall. Threads like "Should I leave the UK because of Brexit?" pop up. What I'm saying is there is (as in, must necessarily be) very little implications of "Brexit", technically speaking. What will really happen is all about what people's emotions make it to be, which are in turn shaped by whose PR prevails.
  - pjc50 9y ago
    > must necessarily be) very little implications of "Brexit", technically speaking How (what mechanism) is this a necessity?
    - lhnz 9y ago
      Presumably inertia. Bureaucracies are not productive enough to enact changes like Brexit in a short amount of time. Europe will need to determine exactly the ruleset which they believe will apply to UK imports/exports, and it will be extremely costly and slow to make any significant changes, since whatever is decided will need to flow down to multiple agencies. Consider, for example, the cost of rewriting lots of technology to support a new arrangement for the UK. Can it be done in 2 years, 4 years, 6 years in every single country that the UK trades with? It will be easier to have arrangements to continue with what we have for now and then to grandfather in what already exists at some point. (This is just my layman's perspective and it's based entirely on intuition so I could be completely wrong!)
  - 9y ago
erkkie 9y ago
This is tricky as half of the premise of Brexit was to not allow free movement.
emodendroket 9y ago
> Not at all. Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place, or are expanded (EFTA, Schengen). These are not the same thing as the EU. Those are pretty big "ifs," don't you think?
wbl 9y ago
The UK was never in Schengen and will leave EFTA.
jimmytidey 9y ago
The UK is not in Schengen now, and it would be perverse to try and join, or become associate members of, Schengen after Brexiting. Being in the EFTA would mean continuing to obey EU legislation, continued freedom of movement and paying money into the pot, ie. everything the Brexit campaign was against. So, no, those agreements will likely not remain in place. The EU wil not agree to give the UK all the benefits of EU membership without the costs. There may be other benefits to Brexit, but it will not be the case that Brexit will be good because the UK will negotiate a deal that, of itself, is better than the current deal the UK gets.
- lmm 9y ago
  > Being in the EFTA would mean continuing to obey EU legislation, continued freedom of movement and paying money into the pot, ie. everything the Brexit campaign was against. Not everything. For some people it was about symbolic sovereignty, or even about the legal structure.

by Radim 9y ago

alphadevx 9y ago

> Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place But isn't that what membership of the EU gives the UK today? So give up the membership, you give those up to. It's kind of the whole point of the EU.

Radim 9y ago
Unfortunately not. Not even close. EU is a political union -- it subsumed the European Economic Community and (partially) the Schengen Agreement and gradually added a lot of political centralization on top. Scary how people equate those, without understanding the (monstrous) difference.
- alphadevx 9y ago
  If the EU is a political union, how come we don't have pan-European parties and elections yet? And a centralized budget? And common taxes? And common defense? I'm sorry but it is not even close to being a political union, unlike the USA for example.
  - Radim 9y ago
    I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic (it's hard to tell on the internet), but just in case: All the things you list have either been already implemented in the EU, or their implementation is being actively discussed. The gradual loss of sovereignty (the so-called "salami method") is also what prompted many people to vote for Brexit. Not everyone was a knuckle-dragging racist.

verytrivial 9y ago

> Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place You appear to be reading different newspapers than I do. They are all reporting "forget it" to these options.

Radim 9y ago
You're right of course. In the end, politics is all about power. With vindictiveness a big part of it -- a more powerful and venerable strategy than mere economic rationality. Where power originates with people, manipulating the general opinion is the ultimate source of power. Ever heard of "bank runs"? It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy -- once you manage to scare enough people, you can shape reality. Healthy banks fall. Threads like "Should I leave the UK because of Brexit?" pop up. What I'm saying is there is (as in, must necessarily be) very little implications of "Brexit", technically speaking. What will really happen is all about what people's emotions make it to be, which are in turn shaped by whose PR prevails.
- pjc50 9y ago
  > must necessarily be) very little implications of "Brexit", technically speaking How (what mechanism) is this a necessity?
  - lhnz 9y ago
    Presumably inertia. Bureaucracies are not productive enough to enact changes like Brexit in a short amount of time. Europe will need to determine exactly the ruleset which they believe will apply to UK imports/exports, and it will be extremely costly and slow to make any significant changes, since whatever is decided will need to flow down to multiple agencies. Consider, for example, the cost of rewriting lots of technology to support a new arrangement for the UK. Can it be done in 2 years, 4 years, 6 years in every single country that the UK trades with? It will be easier to have arrangements to continue with what we have for now and then to grandfather in what already exists at some point. (This is just my layman's perspective and it's based entirely on intuition so I could be completely wrong!)
- 9y ago

erkkie 9y ago

This is tricky as half of the premise of Brexit was to not allow free movement.

emodendroket 9y ago

> Not at all. Especially if the free trade and free movement agreements stay in place, or are expanded (EFTA, Schengen). These are not the same thing as the EU. Those are pretty big "ifs," don't you think?

wbl 9y ago

The UK was never in Schengen and will leave EFTA.

jimmytidey 9y ago

The UK is not in Schengen now, and it would be perverse to try and join, or become associate members of, Schengen after Brexiting. Being in the EFTA would mean continuing to obey EU legislation, continued freedom of movement and paying money into the pot, ie. everything the Brexit campaign was against. So, no, those agreements will likely not remain in place. The EU wil not agree to give the UK all the benefits of EU membership without the costs. There may be other benefits to Brexit, but it will not be the case that Brexit will be good because the UK will negotiate a deal that, of itself, is better than the current deal the UK gets.

lmm 9y ago
> Being in the EFTA would mean continuing to obey EU legislation, continued freedom of movement and paying money into the pot, ie. everything the Brexit campaign was against. Not everything. For some people it was about symbolic sovereignty, or even about the legal structure.