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State GDP is a strange way to measure things. For example, Google's growth doesn't cause a proportional growth in the demand for govt services. If anything, G

by anamax 16y ago

State GDP is a strange way to measure things. For example, Google's growth doesn't cause a proportional growth in the demand for govt services. If anything, Google's grown decreases said demand through the economic activity multiplier. (Folks who benefit from that growth spend money, which employs people and so on.)

_delirium 16y ago
I agree there are other ways, but it's a vague proxy for inflation+population+standards of living, and I don't currently have available a better proxy. If government spending is staying constant as a proportion of GDP, it just means that government services are growing exactly in line with everything else, with an unchanged private:public sector balance. You can't just use inflation, because if, say, median wages rise faster than inflation, then the cost to the government of the same amount of labor will typically rise faster than inflation as well. (This is one reason Alabama has low spending, because cost of living, land, and prevailing wages in Alabama are low.) What people expect out of government services also rises roughly with GDP: a spectrum from poor countries, where not having A/C in government offices is fine, as are overburdened slow trains and pot-hole-filled roads, to advanced countries, where people start wanting things like internet-enabled services, high-speed rail, and modern freeways.
- anamax 16y ago
  CA got its modern freeways in the 70s. It failed to maintain them. > You can't just use inflation, because if, say, median wages rise faster than inflation, then the cost to the government of the same amount of labor will typically rise faster than inflation as well. You can, however, look at spending on existing programs and new programs separately. On existing programs, you look at why you spent more - was to maintain the same level of service, to pay more, or to expand. With new programs, you can ask similar questions.
- anamax 16y ago
  > What people expect out of government services also rises roughly with GDP While true, that's not a factor over a short period of time. Seriously - do you really think that our expectations of state govt changed by 20% over a couple of years? CA's govt spending exploded with the economy because it could. We're now in trouble because we don't seem to be able to contract it the same way.
stretchwithme 16y ago
Exactly.

by anamax 16y ago

_delirium 16y ago

I agree there are other ways, but it's a vague proxy for inflation+population+standards of living, and I don't currently have available a better proxy. If government spending is staying constant as a proportion of GDP, it just means that government services are growing exactly in line with everything else, with an unchanged private:public sector balance. You can't just use inflation, because if, say, median wages rise faster than inflation, then the cost to the government of the same amount of labor will typically rise faster than inflation as well. (This is one reason Alabama has low spending, because cost of living, land, and prevailing wages in Alabama are low.) What people expect out of government services also rises roughly with GDP: a spectrum from poor countries, where not having A/C in government offices is fine, as are overburdened slow trains and pot-hole-filled roads, to advanced countries, where people start wanting things like internet-enabled services, high-speed rail, and modern freeways.

anamax 16y ago
CA got its modern freeways in the 70s. It failed to maintain them. > You can't just use inflation, because if, say, median wages rise faster than inflation, then the cost to the government of the same amount of labor will typically rise faster than inflation as well. You can, however, look at spending on existing programs and new programs separately. On existing programs, you look at why you spent more - was to maintain the same level of service, to pay more, or to expand. With new programs, you can ask similar questions.
anamax 16y ago
> What people expect out of government services also rises roughly with GDP While true, that's not a factor over a short period of time. Seriously - do you really think that our expectations of state govt changed by 20% over a couple of years? CA's govt spending exploded with the economy because it could. We're now in trouble because we don't seem to be able to contract it the same way.

stretchwithme 16y ago

Exactly.