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Didn't he actually design the first rocket himself? He's quite smart. I don't think "industry experience" counts for much. By the way you're using "Dunning-Krug

by beaner 9y ago

Didn't he actually design the first rocket himself? He's quite smart. I don't think "industry experience" counts for much. By the way you're using "Dunning-Kruger," it's unclear that you actually know what it means...

m_mueller 9y ago
I think GP could have a point with Dunning-Kruger applying to EM. Here's the main difference IMO: By far most people who experience the Dunning-Kruger effect have no way of self correcting, i.e. they don't recognise when they're wrong or they do when it's too late or they keep on their path nevertheless because of the sunken cost fallacy or vanity. EM on the other hand has proven to be very good at admitting and correcting his mistakes. That filter effect combined with simple uniform-density-spherical-cow type modelling for his initial guesses combined with some of the best computer simulation experts in the world seems to be enough to have catapulted his endeavours to orbit and back - both figuratively and literally.
Robotbeat 9y ago
I just Dunning-Krugered myself about Dunning-Kruger.
- rl3 9y ago
  >I just Dunning-Krugered myself about Dunning-Kruger. Ultimately you didn't. That very comment shows you were able to recognize and correct for your mistake in the end. Perhaps if you insist you've Dunning-Krugered yourself about Dunning-Kruger, then I may agree that you have in fact Dunning-Krugered yourself about Dunning-Kruger. It's turtles all the way down.
- nerfhammer 9y ago
  DKE = lowest skilled people think they are a little above average. Low skilled people do not think they are as good or better as a very high skilled individual would be. Look at the graphs in the actual study: http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/p7536_readings/kruger_dunning.pdf http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/... It's more like the range of 10-90% actual skill is simply transformed to 50-80% perceived skill. The absolute ranking of person by skill order is still accurate. If Elon Musk is actually at about the 75% percentile of skill which maybe he is, if you turn the graphs that DK reported into a function of actual to perceived skill, if you fed 75% into that you would get like maybe 73%. The real vs. perceived skill curves cross at about 70%. Versus the popular supposed version of DK, being something like "you are wrong and you do not know it." It's easy to describe the DK to sound like it's a profound explanation of that, but if you look at the data they reported, it's a much more timid effect than it sounds like it is. To put it another way, low skilled people think they are better than most of the other low skilled people, but they themselves do not perceive themselves to be better than someone who does in fact know what they are doing. Low skill people would think they are a bit above average, not a superconfident expert.
nikofeyn 9y ago
i would very much doubt that. i remember reading an article early on about some russian investors or engineers noting he knew almost nothing and that he was just reading a lot of university textbooks on areospace engineering.
namlem 9y ago
He did do much of the design on the first rocket, which is probably why it blew up 3 times. He was smart and dedicated enough to figure it out eventually, but he totally stumbled into the field completely clueless.
schwarrrtz 9y ago
> Didn't he actually design the first rocket himself? I'm pretty sure there were core employees (not Musk) working on every part of the rocket from the beginning. This is documented in the Vance biography, IIRC.

by beaner 9y ago

m_mueller 9y ago

I think GP could have a point with Dunning-Kruger applying to EM. Here's the main difference IMO: By far most people who experience the Dunning-Kruger effect have no way of self correcting, i.e. they don't recognise when they're wrong or they do when it's too late or they keep on their path nevertheless because of the sunken cost fallacy or vanity. EM on the other hand has proven to be very good at admitting and correcting his mistakes. That filter effect combined with simple uniform-density-spherical-cow type modelling for his initial guesses combined with some of the best computer simulation experts in the world seems to be enough to have catapulted his endeavours to orbit and back - both figuratively and literally.

Robotbeat 9y ago

I just Dunning-Krugered myself about Dunning-Kruger.

rl3 9y ago
>I just Dunning-Krugered myself about Dunning-Kruger. Ultimately you didn't. That very comment shows you were able to recognize and correct for your mistake in the end. Perhaps if you insist you've Dunning-Krugered yourself about Dunning-Kruger, then I may agree that you have in fact Dunning-Krugered yourself about Dunning-Kruger. It's turtles all the way down.
nerfhammer 9y ago
DKE = lowest skilled people think they are a little above average. Low skilled people do not think they are as good or better as a very high skilled individual would be. Look at the graphs in the actual study: http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/p7536_readings/kruger_dunning.pdf http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/... It's more like the range of 10-90% actual skill is simply transformed to 50-80% perceived skill. The absolute ranking of person by skill order is still accurate. If Elon Musk is actually at about the 75% percentile of skill which maybe he is, if you turn the graphs that DK reported into a function of actual to perceived skill, if you fed 75% into that you would get like maybe 73%. The real vs. perceived skill curves cross at about 70%. Versus the popular supposed version of DK, being something like "you are wrong and you do not know it." It's easy to describe the DK to sound like it's a profound explanation of that, but if you look at the data they reported, it's a much more timid effect than it sounds like it is. To put it another way, low skilled people think they are better than most of the other low skilled people, but they themselves do not perceive themselves to be better than someone who does in fact know what they are doing. Low skill people would think they are a bit above average, not a superconfident expert.

nikofeyn 9y ago

i would very much doubt that. i remember reading an article early on about some russian investors or engineers noting he knew almost nothing and that he was just reading a lot of university textbooks on areospace engineering.

namlem 9y ago

He did do much of the design on the first rocket, which is probably why it blew up 3 times. He was smart and dedicated enough to figure it out eventually, but he totally stumbled into the field completely clueless.

schwarrrtz 9y ago

> Didn't he actually design the first rocket himself? I'm pretty sure there were core employees (not Musk) working on every part of the rocket from the beginning. This is documented in the Vance biography, IIRC.