3 ms·

He hasn’t done that with rockets. He wants to eventually, but he hasn’t yet. Let’s not let hype cloud facts.

nkoren 9y ago
He's getting very close, if one is considering domestic rockets. The standard-bearers were the Delta IV and Atlas V, which price out at around $17,000/kg - $20,000/kg to LEO, respectively. The Falcon 9 comes in at about $2,800/kg to LEO. Comparisons with non-domestic rockets are complicated by state subsidies and differentials in labor costs. But the Falcon 9 is approaching the 10X mark even before reusability has been priced in. Both the Falcon Heavy (in a few months) and the (eventual) reusable pricing should overshoot the 10X mark substantially.
- Rebelgecko 9y ago
  Where are you pulling those numbers from? On ULA's website [1] they say you can launch an Atlas V for less than half the $/kg you listed [1] I went to rocketbuilder.com and both LEO configurations I tried were around $8,000/kg (and I didn't count the 20% deduction for "ULA added value" since the numbers there are debatable)
  - nkoren 9y ago
    ULA has abruptly gotten way more competitive in their pricing. A few years ago they were not. Their "Best deal" for the Atlas V was a 36-rocket "bulk buy" priced the lowest-tier Atlas V 401 at $164M/launch[1]. That does 9,797kg to LEO[2], or $16,740/kg. The GAO cites $164M/launch as the price for the cheapest Delta V[3] (is there some kind of threshold at $165M?), which when the Falcon 9 was introduced could put 8,500kg to LEO[4], or $19,294/kg. (It has since been uprated and gotten slightly cheaper). Must've screwed up my calculations earlier, because those aren't tallying. Anyhow, as you can see, SpaceX is already around 7x cheaper compared to where ULA was, and should cross the 10x threshold shortly. Nice to see ULA responding to competitive pressure, however! 1: https://web.archive.org/web/20160324172526/http://www.ulalaunch.com/faqs-launch-costs.aspx https://web.archive.org/web/20160324172526/http://www.ulalau... 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_V 3: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-17-609 http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-17-609 4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV#Delta_IV_Small https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV#Delta_IV_Small
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      For the "block buy", that price includes building the rocket but not the launch.

He's getting very close, if one is considering domestic rockets. The standard-bearers were the Delta IV and Atlas V, which price out at around $17,000/kg - $20,000/kg to LEO, respectively. The Falcon 9 comes in at about $2,800/kg to LEO. Comparisons with non-domestic rockets are complicated by state subsidies and differentials in labor costs. But the Falcon 9 is approaching the 10X mark even before reusability has been priced in. Both the Falcon Heavy (in a few months) and the (eventual) reusable pricing should overshoot the 10X mark substantially.

Rebelgecko 9y ago
Where are you pulling those numbers from? On ULA's website [1] they say you can launch an Atlas V for less than half the $/kg you listed [1] I went to rocketbuilder.com and both LEO configurations I tried were around $8,000/kg (and I didn't count the 20% deduction for "ULA added value" since the numbers there are debatable)
- nkoren 9y ago
  ULA has abruptly gotten way more competitive in their pricing. A few years ago they were not. Their "Best deal" for the Atlas V was a 36-rocket "bulk buy" priced the lowest-tier Atlas V 401 at $164M/launch[1]. That does 9,797kg to LEO[2], or $16,740/kg. The GAO cites $164M/launch as the price for the cheapest Delta V[3] (is there some kind of threshold at $165M?), which when the Falcon 9 was introduced could put 8,500kg to LEO[4], or $19,294/kg. (It has since been uprated and gotten slightly cheaper). Must've screwed up my calculations earlier, because those aren't tallying. Anyhow, as you can see, SpaceX is already around 7x cheaper compared to where ULA was, and should cross the 10x threshold shortly. Nice to see ULA responding to competitive pressure, however! 1: https://web.archive.org/web/20160324172526/http://www.ulalaunch.com/faqs-launch-costs.aspx https://web.archive.org/web/20160324172526/http://www.ulalau... 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_V 3: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-17-609 http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-17-609 4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV#Delta_IV_Small https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_IV#Delta_IV_Small
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    For the "block buy", that price includes building the rocket but not the launch.