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What blows my mind is the massive wealth transfer this represents. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It's simply an abstract asset with no value other than what

What blows my mind is the massive wealth transfer this represents. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It's simply an abstract asset with no value other than what someone else is willing to pay for it. And there are no fundamentals that justify its price. So it's just pure wealth transfer from later arrivals to early arrivals. It's a zero sum game. It'd be fascinating to chart the transfer of wealth in Bitcoin across the globe to identify the big winners and losers.

conanbatt 9y ago
I dont think this captures the value of purchasing bitcoins. If its true that a large part of the volume is people moving the money out of china, its like a banking service to them, even if they take a hit with a large cut by playing the ponzi. Even at its downs, bitcoin has found demand still. That is a very interesting signal. If it were just the ponzi as you say, it would have come crashing down on its downturns.
- zzalpha 9y ago
  Even at its downs, bitcoin has found demand still. That is a very interesting signal. If it were just the ponzi as you say, it would have come crashing down on its downturns. That is profoundly faulty reasoning. For a lot of people, a drop in bitcoin is just a signal to buy because they have an irrational belief that it can never really go down permanently (which, to anyone who remembers 2007, should sound familiar). A ponzi scheme can go on as long as you can find new market entrants, and what makes Bitcoin remarkable is that it can tap into revenue sources throughout the entire world, and in particular in places where socioeconomics and geopolitics makes something like Bitcoin extremely attractive. That's a lot of fuel for this particular fire to burn before it fizzles out (presuming fundamentals aren't established before then). The world has never really seen anything quite like this, and it'll be fascinating to see what happens over the next 10-15 years. And, meanwhile, again, there is a lot of wealth being transferred, and I'd love to see where it's going...
  - conanbatt 9y ago
    > That is profoundly faulty reasoning. For a lot of people, a drop in bitcoin is just a signal to buy because they have an irrational belief that it can never really go down permanently (which, to anyone who remembers 2007, should sound familiar). Its not faulty at all. When a ponzi stops paying out it crashes. Bitcoin had long periods of not paying out. The never ending demand for it signals the opposite of a ponzi: all assets with demand have a floor where people stary buying again. I also dont see bitcoin's value as most people. I sold most at 60, figure that out. Who knows where this ends..
    - zzalpha 9y ago
      Which is why this isn't as simple as a direct Ponzi scheme where actual cash payments are passed around (and why I never actually called it one). It's more like a MLM where sellers are buying their own product for resale with the expectation of future returns. This breaks the normal dynamic of a Ponzi scheme since there's latent inventory lying around that can be bought, sold, or held until another sucker comes along. And that delays the crash. Of course, the big difference is a normal MLM at least offers a product with some nominal base value, whereas the base value of Bitcoin is precisely zero.
kneel 9y ago
>there are no fundamentals that justify its price. Bitcoin is the currency of choice for most international/domestic drug trade. This is a well known secret.
- zzalpha 9y ago
  I struggle to believe that's enough to drive a 400+% increase YoY for 2017.
  - kneel 9y ago
    The fundamentals are there, your mistake is believing that markets are somehow rational.
    - zzalpha 9y ago
      Eh, I've heard that before. And yet, no one can seem to put a finger on what, exactly, those fundamentals are that might justify the magnitude of price movement, aside from "someone else will buy it from me for more than what I paid for it"...

conanbatt 9y ago

I dont think this captures the value of purchasing bitcoins. If its true that a large part of the volume is people moving the money out of china, its like a banking service to them, even if they take a hit with a large cut by playing the ponzi. Even at its downs, bitcoin has found demand still. That is a very interesting signal. If it were just the ponzi as you say, it would have come crashing down on its downturns.

zzalpha 9y ago
Even at its downs, bitcoin has found demand still. That is a very interesting signal. If it were just the ponzi as you say, it would have come crashing down on its downturns. That is profoundly faulty reasoning. For a lot of people, a drop in bitcoin is just a signal to buy because they have an irrational belief that it can never really go down permanently (which, to anyone who remembers 2007, should sound familiar). A ponzi scheme can go on as long as you can find new market entrants, and what makes Bitcoin remarkable is that it can tap into revenue sources throughout the entire world, and in particular in places where socioeconomics and geopolitics makes something like Bitcoin extremely attractive. That's a lot of fuel for this particular fire to burn before it fizzles out (presuming fundamentals aren't established before then). The world has never really seen anything quite like this, and it'll be fascinating to see what happens over the next 10-15 years. And, meanwhile, again, there is a lot of wealth being transferred, and I'd love to see where it's going...
- conanbatt 9y ago
  > That is profoundly faulty reasoning. For a lot of people, a drop in bitcoin is just a signal to buy because they have an irrational belief that it can never really go down permanently (which, to anyone who remembers 2007, should sound familiar). Its not faulty at all. When a ponzi stops paying out it crashes. Bitcoin had long periods of not paying out. The never ending demand for it signals the opposite of a ponzi: all assets with demand have a floor where people stary buying again. I also dont see bitcoin's value as most people. I sold most at 60, figure that out. Who knows where this ends..
  - zzalpha 9y ago
    Which is why this isn't as simple as a direct Ponzi scheme where actual cash payments are passed around (and why I never actually called it one). It's more like a MLM where sellers are buying their own product for resale with the expectation of future returns. This breaks the normal dynamic of a Ponzi scheme since there's latent inventory lying around that can be bought, sold, or held until another sucker comes along. And that delays the crash. Of course, the big difference is a normal MLM at least offers a product with some nominal base value, whereas the base value of Bitcoin is precisely zero.

kneel 9y ago

>there are no fundamentals that justify its price. Bitcoin is the currency of choice for most international/domestic drug trade. This is a well known secret.

zzalpha 9y ago
I struggle to believe that's enough to drive a 400+% increase YoY for 2017.
- kneel 9y ago
  The fundamentals are there, your mistake is believing that markets are somehow rational.
  - zzalpha 9y ago
    Eh, I've heard that before. And yet, no one can seem to put a finger on what, exactly, those fundamentals are that might justify the magnitude of price movement, aside from "someone else will buy it from me for more than what I paid for it"...