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> this could all add up to a case where the price of truck transportation drops so much that demand for truck drivers actually increases The problem is that lo

• didgeoridoo 9y ago
  There are a lot of unknowns here. The factors putting downward pressure on trucker salaries are: - Remote operation of trucks is an easier lifestyle, so more people would be willing to take the job, driving down salaries - Fewer human truckers are needed per truck on the road, so for a given level of trucking activity, fewer jobs exist Some potential countervailing factors: - Price of trucking plummets, potentially jacking up demand (Jevons Paradox) depending on price elasticity of truck transportation - Managing multiple vehicles may end up being more cognitively challenging than driving a single truck, reducing the pool of available workers and driving up salaries The values of these parameters (and how they change over time) will be crucial to determining the net impact to trucker salaries and employment numbers. My intuition is that salaries will go down dramatically, employment numbers will go down modestly, and overall trucking activity will expand.
  • panopticon 9y ago
    > Managing multiple vehicles may end up being more cognitively challenging than driving a single truck, reducing the pool of available workers and driving up salaries Tangential to this point: If this mode of truck operation becomes prevalent, I could potentially see a path where warehouses/loading docks get employees certified (a la forklift truck certifications) to operate the truck on premises to handle the "last mile" (i.e. on-site) operations. Now you've completely decimated the number of trucker jobs.
    • firethief 9y ago
      I think you're drastically underestimating the difficulty involved in manuevering an eighteen wheeler around the premises of a typical business. There's no way it would be cost effective to train people for that so that they can spend most of their time doing something else.
• winstonewert 9y ago
  The wages aren't "lost", the "saved" money will still be paid to somebody to do something.
  • toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Profits kept by shareholders.
    • winstonewert 9y ago
      and spent by them as well.
      • toomuchtodo 9y ago
        Maybe. Depends on tax law at the time. Going to need social safety net money, we might as well tax automation.
        • kansface 9y ago
          Our tax code needs reform, but taxing gains in productivity is a perverse incentive.
          • toomuchtodo 9y ago
            > but taxing gains in productivity is a perverse incentive. Not at all. The end goal should not be productivity onto itself. If those gains are being scooped up by a sliver of the population, we change the rules to benefit all. One person, one vote. As automation automates away more jobs, the cohort of people without jobs grows, forcing regulations (through democracy) to change to move towards a citizen's dividend funded by a tax on automation. The system will reach equilibrium, or there will be a revolution. If you don't want your automation lifting the tide of all boats, someone else will come along and build it.
            • djrogers 9y ago