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Tesla / Musk has bothered me for a while, on one hand I think everything he is doing is the future and the right thing, the right goals, on the other they seem

Tesla / Musk has bothered me for a while, on one hand I think everything he is doing is the future and the right thing, the right goals, on the other they seem to be trying to get there by selling BS. I was really waiting for the semi since the math didn't seem to work out. Maybe thats what it take to motivate people, know how to sell the BS and make them believe. I have wondered if the math will catch up with them though. Maybe doing anything big is not profitable or efficient, dump money into until it works.

matt4077 9y ago
I think it's quite unfair to call what they're doing "BS". If you look at Musk's history at both SpaceX and Tesla, the pattern is pretty obvious: the products are always late, but rarely disappoint. And considering that much of what they do is best categorised as research, I can't really see why one would get angry at dates slipping. Maybe if you're one of their commercial space launch customers–but even then you should've extrapolated from the past and doubled their estimates. Maybe they could follow Apple's PR lead more closely and only announce products when they're done. But I guess Musk is just too excited not to talk about whatever idea he has on any given day, and they may also rely on pre-orders for financing. They do seem to make it up by creating products that are far more ambitious than Apple, though.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  Remember the Musk said his solar roof would cost less than a normal roof before its electricity production is taken into account? Saying your semi is "long haul" but probably has 200-300 mile range and only good for local delivery. Now Tesla 3 production 20% of what Musk said it would be, and still no $35,000 versions, more BS. Tesla still running a loss and behind schedule, Space X maybe breaking even and behind schedule. Habitually over over promising is what I consider BS. I hope it still works out because as I said I do believe it to be the right thing and as I said maybe that how it need to get done. Seems more like how a government program is run than a business though.
  - hwillis 9y ago
    > Remember the Musk said his solar roof would cost less than a normal roof before its electricity production is taken into account? Musk didn't say that and neither did anyone who works for Tesla. > Saying your semi is "long haul" but probably has 200-300 mile range and only good for local delivery. Literally just made up by you, right now. > Now Tesla 3 production 20% of what Musk said it would be, and still no $35,000 versions, more BS. The only thing. They should try to be more like other top-tier companies, ones that don't have delays- like Apple[1]. > Tesla still running a loss and behind schedule, Space X maybe breaking even and behind schedule. And yet both are still leagues ahead of their competitors. > Habitually over over promising is what I consider BS. He tweets out updates on development. They aren't promises. He missed guidance on the first month of production on a totally new product line that required billions in investments. It happens. > Seems more like how a government program is run than a business though. Yeah well the government built the rails, the roads, the internet and put a man on the moon. The government beats private industry on overhead and cost. The government does just fine. [1]: https://9to5mac.com/2017/09/20/iphone-x-production-delay-october/ https://9to5mac.com/2017/09/20/iphone-x-production-delay-oct...
    - SigmundA 9y ago
      > Musk didn't say that and neither did anyone who works for Tesla. "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the event. [1] > Literally just made up by you, right now. No [2], and if you know anything about lithium cost and weight its pretty obvious. To match the range of a normal long haul semi with 300 gallons of diesel your looking at a million dollar battery that is basically the size of the trailer with no cargo capacity. > And yet both are still leagues ahead of their competitors. Space competitors are running at more than 10% profit margins [3]. Boeing might also beat them to Mars [4]. >Yeah well the government built the rails, the roads, the internet and put a man on the moon. The government beats private industry on overhead and cost. The government does just fine. I agree, it wasn't meant as a disparagement of the government approach. I just don't like it being held up as some example of a good business and the stretching of the truth constantly annoys me. No one can seem to accept the government running a deficit to do big things, but Musk, take my money. [1]: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-tesla-solar-roof-costs-2017-5 http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-tesla-solar-roof-cos... [2]: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-trucking-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-long-haul-electric-truck-aims-for-200-to-300-miles-on-a-charge-idUSKCN1B42GC http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-trucking-exclusive/e... [3]: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-... [4]: http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-spacex-mars-elon-musk-2016-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-spacex-mars-elon-musk-...
hwillis 9y ago
> I was really waiting for the semi since the math didn't seem to work out. It actually does- they're going for long range which in the context of trucking is anywhere from 500-800 miles- surprisingly short compared to the 2500+ mile range of a fully gassed semi. Keep in mind that 500 miles is 8 full hours of 65 mph driving though! That covers 80%+ of all commercial driving. With an aerodynamic cab the drag coefficient of a semi can get to ~.4 with a 115 sqft frontal area. That works out to 132 kW at 70 mph. Including rolling resistance and 90% drivetrain efficiency that comes to 1,200-2,000 kWh for 500-800 miles. That's 5-10 tonnes of batteries at the module level (doesn't include cooling or armor). The engine, exhaust, transmission and fuel in a semi truck weighs several tonnes- at the lower end of range, converting to batteries could even reduce weight. Even 800 miles of range is a pretty insignificant increase to the weight of the tractor, especially if they can improve on aerodynamics or count range at a lower speed. The cost of all those batteries is 200-300k, which is expensive but not unusual for a semi truck. In short the numbers actually work out quite well for electric semis. Charging locations and power are an issue that will limit them to set routes for the near future, and even in the long term it will be hard to replace sleeper cabs doing 1200+ mile nonstop trips. However routes like that are very rare indeed.
- SigmundA 9y ago
  >Keep in mind that 500 miles is 8 full hours of 65 mph driving though! Truckers do 700 miles days legally. Your talking 10 hours to recharge on super charger for 500 miles of battery vs a few minutes at truck stop for diesel. Might be ok if they can sleep at super charger, going to be a while before that infrastructure is built out. simply not viable for long haul. >The engine, exhaust, transmission and fuel in a semi truck weighs several tonnes- at the lower end of range, converting to batteries could even reduce weight. A 15 liter diesel and transmission weighs 2 tons, 300 gallons diesel 1 ton. it will be heavier, meaning less capacity even with only 200-300 miles of range. >The cost of all those batteries is 200-300k, which is expensive but not unusual for a semi truck. The whole truck cost 200-300k, now you just doubled it.
  - hwillis 9y ago
    I did mention that the trucks will be nonviable for any non-corporate use. I'll also point out that charge time is independent of battery size: as long as the charger is large enough (as in MW+), Tesla Semis will charge in the same time as Tesla sedans. So 200 miles in about 20 minutes. > A 15 liter diesel and transmission weighs 2 tons, 300 gallons diesel 1 ton. it will be heavier, meaning less capacity even with only 200-300 miles of range. Even with those numbers, that would only be a 5% increase in weight. It affects the capacity of fully loaded trucks (very minorly) but it doesn't affect the range whatsoever. > The whole truck cost 200-300k, now you just doubled it. Minus the cost of engine etc. Most nice trucks cost less than $200k so it is still easily double the average truck, but that's expected given maintenance and fuel savings. Upfront cost is comparable to some of the really nice European models.

matt4077 9y ago

I think it's quite unfair to call what they're doing "BS". If you look at Musk's history at both SpaceX and Tesla, the pattern is pretty obvious: the products are always late, but rarely disappoint. And considering that much of what they do is best categorised as research, I can't really see why one would get angry at dates slipping. Maybe if you're one of their commercial space launch customers–but even then you should've extrapolated from the past and doubled their estimates. Maybe they could follow Apple's PR lead more closely and only announce products when they're done. But I guess Musk is just too excited not to talk about whatever idea he has on any given day, and they may also rely on pre-orders for financing. They do seem to make it up by creating products that are far more ambitious than Apple, though.

SigmundA 9y ago
Remember the Musk said his solar roof would cost less than a normal roof before its electricity production is taken into account? Saying your semi is "long haul" but probably has 200-300 mile range and only good for local delivery. Now Tesla 3 production 20% of what Musk said it would be, and still no $35,000 versions, more BS. Tesla still running a loss and behind schedule, Space X maybe breaking even and behind schedule. Habitually over over promising is what I consider BS. I hope it still works out because as I said I do believe it to be the right thing and as I said maybe that how it need to get done. Seems more like how a government program is run than a business though.
- hwillis 9y ago
  > Remember the Musk said his solar roof would cost less than a normal roof before its electricity production is taken into account? Musk didn't say that and neither did anyone who works for Tesla. > Saying your semi is "long haul" but probably has 200-300 mile range and only good for local delivery. Literally just made up by you, right now. > Now Tesla 3 production 20% of what Musk said it would be, and still no $35,000 versions, more BS. The only thing. They should try to be more like other top-tier companies, ones that don't have delays- like Apple[1]. > Tesla still running a loss and behind schedule, Space X maybe breaking even and behind schedule. And yet both are still leagues ahead of their competitors. > Habitually over over promising is what I consider BS. He tweets out updates on development. They aren't promises. He missed guidance on the first month of production on a totally new product line that required billions in investments. It happens. > Seems more like how a government program is run than a business though. Yeah well the government built the rails, the roads, the internet and put a man on the moon. The government beats private industry on overhead and cost. The government does just fine. [1]: https://9to5mac.com/2017/09/20/iphone-x-production-delay-october/ https://9to5mac.com/2017/09/20/iphone-x-production-delay-oct...
  - SigmundA 9y ago
    > Musk didn't say that and neither did anyone who works for Tesla. "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the event. [1] > Literally just made up by you, right now. No [2], and if you know anything about lithium cost and weight its pretty obvious. To match the range of a normal long haul semi with 300 gallons of diesel your looking at a million dollar battery that is basically the size of the trailer with no cargo capacity. > And yet both are still leagues ahead of their competitors. Space competitors are running at more than 10% profit margins [3]. Boeing might also beat them to Mars [4]. >Yeah well the government built the rails, the roads, the internet and put a man on the moon. The government beats private industry on overhead and cost. The government does just fine. I agree, it wasn't meant as a disparagement of the government approach. I just don't like it being held up as some example of a good business and the stretching of the truth constantly annoys me. No one can seem to accept the government running a deficit to do big things, but Musk, take my money. [1]: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-tesla-solar-roof-costs-2017-5 http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-tesla-solar-roof-cos... [2]: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-trucking-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-long-haul-electric-truck-aims-for-200-to-300-miles-on-a-charge-idUSKCN1B42GC http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-trucking-exclusive/e... [3]: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-... [4]: http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-spacex-mars-elon-musk-2016-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-spacex-mars-elon-musk-...

hwillis 9y ago

> I was really waiting for the semi since the math didn't seem to work out. It actually does- they're going for long range which in the context of trucking is anywhere from 500-800 miles- surprisingly short compared to the 2500+ mile range of a fully gassed semi. Keep in mind that 500 miles is 8 full hours of 65 mph driving though! That covers 80%+ of all commercial driving. With an aerodynamic cab the drag coefficient of a semi can get to ~.4 with a 115 sqft frontal area. That works out to 132 kW at 70 mph. Including rolling resistance and 90% drivetrain efficiency that comes to 1,200-2,000 kWh for 500-800 miles. That's 5-10 tonnes of batteries at the module level (doesn't include cooling or armor). The engine, exhaust, transmission and fuel in a semi truck weighs several tonnes- at the lower end of range, converting to batteries could even reduce weight. Even 800 miles of range is a pretty insignificant increase to the weight of the tractor, especially if they can improve on aerodynamics or count range at a lower speed. The cost of all those batteries is 200-300k, which is expensive but not unusual for a semi truck. In short the numbers actually work out quite well for electric semis. Charging locations and power are an issue that will limit them to set routes for the near future, and even in the long term it will be hard to replace sleeper cabs doing 1200+ mile nonstop trips. However routes like that are very rare indeed.

SigmundA 9y ago
>Keep in mind that 500 miles is 8 full hours of 65 mph driving though! Truckers do 700 miles days legally. Your talking 10 hours to recharge on super charger for 500 miles of battery vs a few minutes at truck stop for diesel. Might be ok if they can sleep at super charger, going to be a while before that infrastructure is built out. simply not viable for long haul. >The engine, exhaust, transmission and fuel in a semi truck weighs several tonnes- at the lower end of range, converting to batteries could even reduce weight. A 15 liter diesel and transmission weighs 2 tons, 300 gallons diesel 1 ton. it will be heavier, meaning less capacity even with only 200-300 miles of range. >The cost of all those batteries is 200-300k, which is expensive but not unusual for a semi truck. The whole truck cost 200-300k, now you just doubled it.
- hwillis 9y ago
  I did mention that the trucks will be nonviable for any non-corporate use. I'll also point out that charge time is independent of battery size: as long as the charger is large enough (as in MW+), Tesla Semis will charge in the same time as Tesla sedans. So 200 miles in about 20 minutes. > A 15 liter diesel and transmission weighs 2 tons, 300 gallons diesel 1 ton. it will be heavier, meaning less capacity even with only 200-300 miles of range. Even with those numbers, that would only be a 5% increase in weight. It affects the capacity of fully loaded trucks (very minorly) but it doesn't affect the range whatsoever. > The whole truck cost 200-300k, now you just doubled it. Minus the cost of engine etc. Most nice trucks cost less than $200k so it is still easily double the average truck, but that's expected given maintenance and fuel savings. Upfront cost is comparable to some of the really nice European models.