I find this a specious argument. Firstly, you should be considering the effect and not the object. The Berlin Wall was just a wall. It was geo-politics that bo

I find this a specious argument. Firstly, you should be considering the effect and not the object. The Berlin Wall was just a wall. It was geo-politics that bought down the wall. That's what was being predicted. These changes tend to happen on human timelines. So arguing that an 8-year old geo-political setup may change in the next 24 years would make sense. That's basically saying in the next generation or two. You can throw the statistics out. The effects that could wipe out humanity is a relatively specific list. And they definitely don't occur in human timeframes. You can work probabilities off that list. You'll come up with a completely different answer.