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I also read the Amerman article now. His analysis completely forgets one very important thing: stock dividends, which are also higher during periods of high inf
by danmaz74 9y ago
I also read the Amerman article now. His analysis completely forgets one very important thing: stock dividends, which are also higher during periods of high inflation, and compound if you reinvest them. I didn't run the math, but that would for sure change the results a lot.
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/table http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/table
- lurcio 9y agoAgree on the oversight. From his CFA perspective (which I'm not in any way), divs are somewhat diminished in the new normal (as your link shows), and minority of companies account for the majority of divs. Of course, fiscal policy also impacts div gains. Double whammy. Creates a great climate for the development of productive assets, rather than resting on protective assets.
- danmaz74 9y agoBut the "new normal" includes very low price inflation, while his analysis is based on a period of high inflation and high dividends. With that overlook, his predictions look very shaky to me.