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> I am fully cognizant of the perils of making bearish predictions about new technology. > But, to quote another well-worn and wholly unreliable aphorism, thi

> I am fully cognizant of the perils of making bearish predictions about new technology. > But, to quote another well-worn and wholly unreliable aphorism, this time it's different. It really is. and >... because the only other alternative is chaos, and probably the end of the whole Bitcoin experiment. I'm very much a Bitcoin skeptic, but, I'm not sure this time is different, or that Bitcoin will die. For the last 8 years, various sources have been predicting a Bitcoin collapse over and over again. It's still here, alive and well and quite high. 3 years ago: Business Week - Bitcoin Is Collapsing => https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8893616 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8893616 4 years ago: latimes.com - Bitcoin virtual currency is on verge of collapse => https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7306035 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7306035 6 years ago: theatlantic.com - The Bitcoin Economy Is Collapsing with No Sign of Recovery (2011) => https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8431092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8431092 6 years ago: Bitcoin & Gresham's Law - the economic inevitability of Collapse => https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3623549 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3623549

QAPereo 9y ago
To be fair, the SEC losing their patience with ICOs and turning on the whole sector would do it. Edit To replies: It does if the SEC decides the concept of cryptocurrency is one which fundamentally exists to bypass regulations for the purpose of fraud. I’d disagree, you’d disagree, but only their agreement matters.
- jacquesm 9y ago
  What does that have to do with bitcoin?
  - Alex3917 9y ago
    The current price of Bitcoin is mostly driven by the fraud taking place within the Ethereum ecosystem. Let's see where the price is after a few rounds of SEC crackdowns.
    - chrisco255 9y ago
      It would suffer a temporary drop then inevitably climb back up again. Bitcoin is global at this point. No one jurisdiction is going to shut it down.
      - QAPereo 9y ago
        There is nothing inevitable about it, but even if it were, the SEC has a long arm. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-arm_jurisdiction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-arm_jurisdiction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgorgement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgorgement http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1088&context=bblj http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?arti... http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/04/argument-preview-long-arm-sec/ http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/04/argument-preview-long-arm-...
      - kccqzy 9y ago
        Here’s a thought experiment. Yes Bitcoin is global but like all other distributed systems, the CAP theorem applies. When there is a network partition, you can only choose between consistency and availability. Now what if tomorrow the Chinese government decided to totally block Bitcoin traffic, just like they block Facebook, Twitter, NYT, Tor and VPNs? Losing either consistency or availability would be a heavy blow. It’s either going to stop working at all, or fork into a Chinese and non-Chinese version. I don’t see how either of them inspires confidence.
        Xophmeister 9y ago
        I think it would be pretty difficult to block a P2P network at that layer of the stack to effectively partition the network. The list of peers is dynamic, so it would always be one step ahead of The Great Firewall.
        colejohnson66 9y ago
        Packet Inspection?
        9y ago
- tylersmith 9y ago
  That has no effect on Bitcoin.
- kobeya 9y ago
  > To be fair, the SEC losing their patience with ICOs and turning on the whole sector would do it. They are already doing just that in the last couple of months, and bitcoin remains unaffected.
  - QAPereo 9y ago
    The SEC have only cracked down a handful of obvious scams from the pool of obvious scams. That’s worlds away from a global crackdown on the entire space, or worse, congressional action. Whether or not you agree with said action, I’m sure you can think of reasons, stated or otherwise, that such action might Be taken.
    - kobeya 9y ago
      No they’ve been calling just about everyone operating in their jurisdiction. Many ‘reputable’ ICOs have halted their fundraising as a result of phone calls their lawyers received from the SEC. They’ve only filed suits agains the obvious scams so far, but that’s just a matter of priorities and the fact that they try to be soft handed with non-scams.
      - zaroth 9y ago
        I believe it and a very good point. But do you have a source?
        kobeya 9y ago
        Not a quotable one no, although some like colony.io have blog posts explaining why they are changing the terms or schedule of their ICO. Others have refunded their ICO. But it is Back channel sources that tell me the others have received calls too (I work in this industry).
        QAPereo 9y ago
        In that case, I doubly appreciate you sharing the info, it does fit with how the SEC likes to operate too.
- mrb 9y ago
  «would do it» The SEC only has jurisdiction in the US. I don't see how this would impact Bitcoin's use in the rest of the world. Bitcoin is a phenomenon that's worldwide.
mrb 9y ago
Ah yes. Bitcoin died 172 times: https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/ https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/
- microcolonel 9y ago
  Like the latter part of an actuarial mortality table, it seems Bitcoin dies more often as time passes.
wpietri 9y ago
In one sense, it's already dead. In theory, Bitcoin is supposed to be a payment system, digital cash. But that seems to be pretty much dead. Consider the opinion of Fred Wilson, a big Bitcoin booster, who has stopped using it for payments: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ Merchant acceptance is actually in retreat: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bitcoin-2017-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit... It is still being used for speculation, of course. And for some crime. But the 2010 vision of a digital cash that replaces Western Union, Visa, etc? It certainly hasn't arrived, and it seems farther off than ever.
- espadrine 9y ago
  It was set to die by design. Bitcoin has a predetermined graph of coin production with time that converges soon. In 2022, 90% of all bitcoins will be produced, and the ideal inflation will be lower than most fiat currencies. But inevitably, people die, and the knowledge of their private key with them, removing bitcoins from circulation. The amount of bitcoin will therefore decrease impredictably All in all, it will be as volatile as currently traded gold (which is not as good a long-term store of value as fiat money as a result), and slower to use in transactions (in November, the European Central Bank will launch SCT Inst, a SEPA mechanism that provides transactions in less than 15 seconds, which is better than Bitcoin's recommended 2 hours). Beating the improvements of traditional systems will require new cryptocurrency designs.
  - ObeyTheGuts 9y ago
    u people are just not the target of bitcoin it seems, me i can not use anything else but bitcoin for online money, its only option, there is no other option. For banks u need passport and official paperwork, which is not possible by majority of worlds population. i can do with bitcoin what i can not ever do with anything else.
  - xTrader 9y ago
    > But inevitably, people die, and the knowledge of their private key with them, removing bitcoins from circulation. The amount of bitcoin will therefore decrease impredictably Maybe a bit late, but you finally understood why Bitcoins get more valuable over time: their number grows slowly or maybe decreases, while the number of people wanting them increases. That's why Bitcoin is the best Store Of Value ever devised.
alexasmyths 9y ago
"For the last 8 years, various sources have been predicting a Bitcoin collapse over and over again. It's still here, alive and well and quite high." It's 'high' mostly because there are a large number of holders who are just sitting there on it. If it's not being used as a currency, than I can't see how in the long term, people consider it to be a 'store of value' when it could be regulated, deemed illegal, or declared all sorts of things by regulatory bodies which fundamentally change it's nature. And as an arbitrary store of value? We have tons of 'stores of value' available to us already that are considerably less volatile and more liquid. So what is the point again? What problem does it solve, and why should anyone want it for a material reason? I too agree that it will be around for a very long time, but what happens when the very speculative press - and even HN readers get 'bored' of all the news? When the Google queries start to wane (and BTW I think BTC will enjoy a huge surge in interest by 'everyday folks of the world' for a while before it wanes), but eventually, people will lose interest if it's just a 'store of value'.
invesari 9y ago
While bitcoin is no longer a good currency, it's still the best store of wealth - the crypto version of gold, due to massive PoW mining infrastructure. While other cryptocurrencies may give you near perfect anonymity or sub-second transaction times with no fees, none of them are so secure and dependable.

QAPereo 9y ago

To be fair, the SEC losing their patience with ICOs and turning on the whole sector would do it. Edit To replies: It does if the SEC decides the concept of cryptocurrency is one which fundamentally exists to bypass regulations for the purpose of fraud. I’d disagree, you’d disagree, but only their agreement matters.

jacquesm 9y ago
What does that have to do with bitcoin?
- Alex3917 9y ago
  The current price of Bitcoin is mostly driven by the fraud taking place within the Ethereum ecosystem. Let's see where the price is after a few rounds of SEC crackdowns.
  - chrisco255 9y ago
    It would suffer a temporary drop then inevitably climb back up again. Bitcoin is global at this point. No one jurisdiction is going to shut it down.
    - QAPereo 9y ago
      There is nothing inevitable about it, but even if it were, the SEC has a long arm. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-arm_jurisdiction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-arm_jurisdiction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgorgement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgorgement http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1088&context=bblj http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?arti... http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/04/argument-preview-long-arm-sec/ http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/04/argument-preview-long-arm-...
    - kccqzy 9y ago
      Here’s a thought experiment. Yes Bitcoin is global but like all other distributed systems, the CAP theorem applies. When there is a network partition, you can only choose between consistency and availability. Now what if tomorrow the Chinese government decided to totally block Bitcoin traffic, just like they block Facebook, Twitter, NYT, Tor and VPNs? Losing either consistency or availability would be a heavy blow. It’s either going to stop working at all, or fork into a Chinese and non-Chinese version. I don’t see how either of them inspires confidence.
      - Xophmeister 9y ago
        I think it would be pretty difficult to block a P2P network at that layer of the stack to effectively partition the network. The list of peers is dynamic, so it would always be one step ahead of The Great Firewall.
        colejohnson66 9y ago
        Packet Inspection?
      - 9y ago
tylersmith 9y ago
That has no effect on Bitcoin.
kobeya 9y ago
> To be fair, the SEC losing their patience with ICOs and turning on the whole sector would do it. They are already doing just that in the last couple of months, and bitcoin remains unaffected.
- QAPereo 9y ago
  The SEC have only cracked down a handful of obvious scams from the pool of obvious scams. That’s worlds away from a global crackdown on the entire space, or worse, congressional action. Whether or not you agree with said action, I’m sure you can think of reasons, stated or otherwise, that such action might Be taken.
  - kobeya 9y ago
    No they’ve been calling just about everyone operating in their jurisdiction. Many ‘reputable’ ICOs have halted their fundraising as a result of phone calls their lawyers received from the SEC. They’ve only filed suits agains the obvious scams so far, but that’s just a matter of priorities and the fact that they try to be soft handed with non-scams.
    - zaroth 9y ago
      I believe it and a very good point. But do you have a source?
      - kobeya 9y ago
        Not a quotable one no, although some like colony.io have blog posts explaining why they are changing the terms or schedule of their ICO. Others have refunded their ICO. But it is Back channel sources that tell me the others have received calls too (I work in this industry).
        QAPereo 9y ago
        In that case, I doubly appreciate you sharing the info, it does fit with how the SEC likes to operate too.
mrb 9y ago
«would do it» The SEC only has jurisdiction in the US. I don't see how this would impact Bitcoin's use in the rest of the world. Bitcoin is a phenomenon that's worldwide.

mrb 9y ago

Ah yes. Bitcoin died 172 times: https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/ https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

microcolonel 9y ago
Like the latter part of an actuarial mortality table, it seems Bitcoin dies more often as time passes.

wpietri 9y ago

In one sense, it's already dead. In theory, Bitcoin is supposed to be a payment system, digital cash. But that seems to be pretty much dead. Consider the opinion of Fred Wilson, a big Bitcoin booster, who has stopped using it for payments: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/ Merchant acceptance is actually in retreat: http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bitcoin-2017-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/merchants-arent-accepting-bit... It is still being used for speculation, of course. And for some crime. But the 2010 vision of a digital cash that replaces Western Union, Visa, etc? It certainly hasn't arrived, and it seems farther off than ever.

espadrine 9y ago
It was set to die by design. Bitcoin has a predetermined graph of coin production with time that converges soon. In 2022, 90% of all bitcoins will be produced, and the ideal inflation will be lower than most fiat currencies. But inevitably, people die, and the knowledge of their private key with them, removing bitcoins from circulation. The amount of bitcoin will therefore decrease impredictably All in all, it will be as volatile as currently traded gold (which is not as good a long-term store of value as fiat money as a result), and slower to use in transactions (in November, the European Central Bank will launch SCT Inst, a SEPA mechanism that provides transactions in less than 15 seconds, which is better than Bitcoin's recommended 2 hours). Beating the improvements of traditional systems will require new cryptocurrency designs.
- ObeyTheGuts 9y ago
  u people are just not the target of bitcoin it seems, me i can not use anything else but bitcoin for online money, its only option, there is no other option. For banks u need passport and official paperwork, which is not possible by majority of worlds population. i can do with bitcoin what i can not ever do with anything else.
- xTrader 9y ago
  > But inevitably, people die, and the knowledge of their private key with them, removing bitcoins from circulation. The amount of bitcoin will therefore decrease impredictably Maybe a bit late, but you finally understood why Bitcoins get more valuable over time: their number grows slowly or maybe decreases, while the number of people wanting them increases. That's why Bitcoin is the best Store Of Value ever devised.

alexasmyths 9y ago

"For the last 8 years, various sources have been predicting a Bitcoin collapse over and over again. It's still here, alive and well and quite high." It's 'high' mostly because there are a large number of holders who are just sitting there on it. If it's not being used as a currency, than I can't see how in the long term, people consider it to be a 'store of value' when it could be regulated, deemed illegal, or declared all sorts of things by regulatory bodies which fundamentally change it's nature. And as an arbitrary store of value? We have tons of 'stores of value' available to us already that are considerably less volatile and more liquid. So what is the point again? What problem does it solve, and why should anyone want it for a material reason? I too agree that it will be around for a very long time, but what happens when the very speculative press - and even HN readers get 'bored' of all the news? When the Google queries start to wane (and BTW I think BTC will enjoy a huge surge in interest by 'everyday folks of the world' for a while before it wanes), but eventually, people will lose interest if it's just a 'store of value'.

invesari 9y ago

While bitcoin is no longer a good currency, it's still the best store of wealth - the crypto version of gold, due to massive PoW mining infrastructure. While other cryptocurrencies may give you near perfect anonymity or sub-second transaction times with no fees, none of them are so secure and dependable.