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If there are 3 billion out of the 300 billion star systems in the galaxy that have habitable planets, then there should be at least 10,000-100,000 star systems

If there are 3 billion out of the 300 billion star systems in the galaxy that have habitable planets, then there should be at least 10,000-100,000 star systems that harbor currently brodcasting species, no?

autokad 9y ago
the situation of our planet, all the things i said above (in particular non-gravitational locked, magnetic field, water & continents) is a 1/N event. I feel like N is very large. When you factor out all the stars of the 100 billion in the milky way, I think you get something unlikely, let alone on a planet in the habitable zone. also, something on the other side of the milky way (100,000 light years), is also far away, so its not like we have the entire milky way to choose from.
- wellboy 9y ago
  Using average values in the drake equation, there have been have been 18 million broadcastable civilizations in the milky way. If we take an average lifespan of 1,000 years and say those cilizations have formed over the last 5 billion years (where planets mostly cooled down throghout the universe) then there are currently only 4-5 broadcastable civilizations in the milky way. Is that correct?
gremlinsinc 9y ago
Why would anyone be stupid enough to broadcast location? Ever see independence day? Might be better off not knowing... though .. I think i'd be almost willing to give up life on earth to know... just because I'm curious as hell.
- wellboy 9y ago
  We already do it, so... :D
- goatlover 9y ago
  So aliens are going to build city sized ships to travel light years so they can steal the resources of one planet in a star system? One would guess that aliens with Independence Day technology could figure out how to terraform or build space colonies in their own star system. Even if they ran out of raw material there, surely the next closest one would do.
  - kamaal 9y ago
    Given the population growth rates, and struggle for resources, eventually all alien species will realized its them vs others. More than mining resources from planets, its generally 'We need to finish them off, before they finish us off'.
  - autokad 9y ago
    in the movie, they were after the earths molten core, in the movie thats something rare

autokad 9y ago

the situation of our planet, all the things i said above (in particular non-gravitational locked, magnetic field, water & continents) is a 1/N event. I feel like N is very large. When you factor out all the stars of the 100 billion in the milky way, I think you get something unlikely, let alone on a planet in the habitable zone. also, something on the other side of the milky way (100,000 light years), is also far away, so its not like we have the entire milky way to choose from.

wellboy 9y ago
Using average values in the drake equation, there have been have been 18 million broadcastable civilizations in the milky way. If we take an average lifespan of 1,000 years and say those cilizations have formed over the last 5 billion years (where planets mostly cooled down throghout the universe) then there are currently only 4-5 broadcastable civilizations in the milky way. Is that correct?

gremlinsinc 9y ago

Why would anyone be stupid enough to broadcast location? Ever see independence day? Might be better off not knowing... though .. I think i'd be almost willing to give up life on earth to know... just because I'm curious as hell.

wellboy 9y ago
We already do it, so... :D
goatlover 9y ago
So aliens are going to build city sized ships to travel light years so they can steal the resources of one planet in a star system? One would guess that aliens with Independence Day technology could figure out how to terraform or build space colonies in their own star system. Even if they ran out of raw material there, surely the next closest one would do.
- kamaal 9y ago
  Given the population growth rates, and struggle for resources, eventually all alien species will realized its them vs others. More than mining resources from planets, its generally 'We need to finish them off, before they finish us off'.
- autokad 9y ago
  in the movie, they were after the earths molten core, in the movie thats something rare