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An interesting detail left out of the article is that Norway's neighbor Iceland ended up signing a free-trade agreement with China in 2013, both Norway and Icel

by avar 9y ago

An interesting detail left out of the article is that Norway's neighbor Iceland ended up signing a free-trade agreement with China in 2013, both Norway and Iceland had negotiations underway in 2010 when China broke ties with Norway. Norway and Iceland are both EEA members, effectively with one foot in the EU, Iceland was the first European country to sign such an agreement with China. Norway and Iceland having free-trade with China while having deep access to the European single market leaves EU expansion in an odd situation. Neither country could become a full EU member without hurting trade with China, or alternatively the EU would have to make a similar FTA with China beforehand. I've wondered what the realpolitik of the situation is. Is China's main interest in these deals to drive a wedge into further EU integration? Are they trying to create a situation where Norway and Iceland joining the EU would be contingent on the EU accepting a FTA with China?

vidarh 9y ago
Norway at least have no current interest in EU membership. Support for EU membership has for a long time been so low (last year polls indicated 71% no, compared to an almost even result in the '94 referendum) that there's no prospect of another EU referendum anytime soon.
- nolok 9y ago
  I agree with your comment, but given the tone / details of the questions you answer to I would like to add "... Compared to their current situation". Norway's low will to join the EU as full member is not because they don't like it or are moving away from it , but because they already have everything they want from it, and a few exceptions specifically "for them" in a custom made package they're fine paying the price of. They pretty much have a "vanity membership, gold level"
  - doktrin 9y ago
    > Norway's low will to join the EU as full member is not because they don't like it or are moving away from it , but because they already have everything they want from it These aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. Public sentiment has historically leaned towards EU skepticism, something which hasn't been helped by witnessing the EU's broad managerial incompetence (and occasionally petty vindictiveness) on everything from Greece to Brexit.
    - mistermann 9y ago
      I'm curious why everyone laughed at England for Brexit but has seemingly no opinion on Norway, it seems illogical.
      - dagw 9y ago
        Norway's path has been a steady path with largely rational smaller steps, mostly towards closer EU integration. The UK took a single, huge, unplanned step into the void without any rational debate or planning on what would come next. People aren't laughing at the UK for leaving the EU per se. but for the insane and terribly thought out chain of blunders that led to them taking that leap.
      - danmaz74 9y ago
        Norway is part of the single market (including free movement of people) and benefits from it, so, what they did is completely different from what the UK is going to do. But, most importantly, it's much much more disruptive to first join and then pull out that not joining at all.
        mamon 9y ago
        So basicaly Norway got itself the best possible deal: all benefits of EU membership without any of the downsides (e.g. common currency or political correctnes bullshit).
        icebraining 9y ago
        If anything, the UK had the best deal: they also don't have a common currency, and unlike Norway they didn't have mandatory open borders (Schengen). I have no idea what do you mean by the EU imposing political correctness, though.
        bergjs 9y ago
        This is not correct as far as I know. The Norwegian government wanted to join the EU because in the current state they have a lot of obligations to be allowed to the single market and they even have to pay a large sum for it but they get no say in it. Voting rights are limited to full EU members. They are getting a bad deal, just like the UK will, simply because the population does not want to join the EU. I want also to point out that this would not have happened if Norway had been in the EU already in 2010 because China would not risk trade with all of the EU because of such a small incident.
  - vidarh 9y ago
    Actual public skepticism to even EEA membership is higher than it's been in a very long time.
- avar 9y ago
  Norway and Iceland don't need to become full EU members for a China FTA creating conflicts between them and the EU. There's already overlap between products covered under Iceland's FTA with China and its FTA with the EU/EEA, but in practice it doesn't matter much because any gains from lower import duties are negated by expensive shipping from Iceland. If Norway signs a similar agreement an EEA country with open land borders with the EU will have a FTA with China. At that point the EU would either need to never liberalize certain trade with the EEA least Norway become a shipping and distribution hub for Chinese goods into the EU, or accept that to get closer integration with Norway and the other EEA members. There has been increasing liberalization of trade between the EU and EEA members, just last month the EU and Iceland agreed to drop almost all import duties on agricultural products[1]. In addition to all of that, with global warming gearing up the Northeast Passage[2] might become a viable shipping route between China and Europe, at that point shipping from China to Norway will be the shortest shipping route between China and Europe by far. Sailing from China to Europe via the NEP to Norway cuts time at sea and fuel consumption by more than half compared to going via the Suez Canal. 1. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20170911IPR83504/eu-to-boost-trade-with-iceland http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20170911IPR... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Passage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Passage
  - DRAOBE 9y ago
    Uh, what sort of conflict do you think China could provoke? I have a hard time seeing a free salmon treaty with China giving rise to more conflict than normal neighbor disputes. If Norway started selling all its oil to China, then we'd have something. But the EU borders Norway, and China doesn't so there isn't much in favour of it. In addition, China doesn't border the EU, so I don't think it sees much value in a divided EU (as opposed to Russia). To them it is probably more interesting to distance the EU from the US.
    - avar 9y ago
      I don't know what sort of FTA Norway was in the process of negotiating in 2010, but if it's anything like the treaty it signed with Iceland in 2013 calling it a "free salmon treaty" is the understatement of the century. You can read the full list of tariff concessions by Iceland[1], as well as the rest of the treaty[2] MFA website. It covers anything from food, tools, machinery, to raw ore and metals to finished nuclear reactors. Almost all tariffs on Chinese goods entering Iceland are set at 0%. This means that Iceland (or hypothetically Norway in the future) can import say cheap industrial acids from China, and use them to make finished products that could be sold to the EU market using existing EU/EEA trade deals that give preferential tariff treatment to EEA members. That's the potential conflict I'm talking about. China's setting up agreements where a country with wide access to its internal markets has better access to cheap Chinese goods than other EU/EEA countries. Which means that either the EU needs to slow down liberalization of trade with Iceland (and perhaps Norway in the future) least they essentially become hubs to evade EU duties on Chinese goods, which'll pull those countries further into the Chinese sphere of influence. Or it'll need to make similar deals itself, or otherwise live with the resulting trade imbalance with Iceland and Norway becoming re-exporters of Chinese goods. 1. https://www.mfa.is/media/fta-kina/Vidauki-I---Tollaaetlanir---Island.pdf https://www.mfa.is/media/fta-kina/Vidauki-I---Tollaaetlanir-... 2. https://www.mfa.is/foreign-policy/trade/free-trade-agreement-between-iceland-and-china/ https://www.mfa.is/foreign-policy/trade/free-trade-agreement...

by avar 9y ago

vidarh 9y ago

Norway at least have no current interest in EU membership. Support for EU membership has for a long time been so low (last year polls indicated 71% no, compared to an almost even result in the '94 referendum) that there's no prospect of another EU referendum anytime soon.

nolok 9y ago
I agree with your comment, but given the tone / details of the questions you answer to I would like to add "... Compared to their current situation". Norway's low will to join the EU as full member is not because they don't like it or are moving away from it , but because they already have everything they want from it, and a few exceptions specifically "for them" in a custom made package they're fine paying the price of. They pretty much have a "vanity membership, gold level"
- doktrin 9y ago
  > Norway's low will to join the EU as full member is not because they don't like it or are moving away from it , but because they already have everything they want from it These aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. Public sentiment has historically leaned towards EU skepticism, something which hasn't been helped by witnessing the EU's broad managerial incompetence (and occasionally petty vindictiveness) on everything from Greece to Brexit.
  - mistermann 9y ago
    I'm curious why everyone laughed at England for Brexit but has seemingly no opinion on Norway, it seems illogical.
    - dagw 9y ago
      Norway's path has been a steady path with largely rational smaller steps, mostly towards closer EU integration. The UK took a single, huge, unplanned step into the void without any rational debate or planning on what would come next. People aren't laughing at the UK for leaving the EU per se. but for the insane and terribly thought out chain of blunders that led to them taking that leap.
    - danmaz74 9y ago
      Norway is part of the single market (including free movement of people) and benefits from it, so, what they did is completely different from what the UK is going to do. But, most importantly, it's much much more disruptive to first join and then pull out that not joining at all.
      - mamon 9y ago
        So basicaly Norway got itself the best possible deal: all benefits of EU membership without any of the downsides (e.g. common currency or political correctnes bullshit).
        icebraining 9y ago
        If anything, the UK had the best deal: they also don't have a common currency, and unlike Norway they didn't have mandatory open borders (Schengen). I have no idea what do you mean by the EU imposing political correctness, though.
        bergjs 9y ago
        This is not correct as far as I know. The Norwegian government wanted to join the EU because in the current state they have a lot of obligations to be allowed to the single market and they even have to pay a large sum for it but they get no say in it. Voting rights are limited to full EU members. They are getting a bad deal, just like the UK will, simply because the population does not want to join the EU. I want also to point out that this would not have happened if Norway had been in the EU already in 2010 because China would not risk trade with all of the EU because of such a small incident.
- vidarh 9y ago
  Actual public skepticism to even EEA membership is higher than it's been in a very long time.
avar 9y ago
Norway and Iceland don't need to become full EU members for a China FTA creating conflicts between them and the EU. There's already overlap between products covered under Iceland's FTA with China and its FTA with the EU/EEA, but in practice it doesn't matter much because any gains from lower import duties are negated by expensive shipping from Iceland. If Norway signs a similar agreement an EEA country with open land borders with the EU will have a FTA with China. At that point the EU would either need to never liberalize certain trade with the EEA least Norway become a shipping and distribution hub for Chinese goods into the EU, or accept that to get closer integration with Norway and the other EEA members. There has been increasing liberalization of trade between the EU and EEA members, just last month the EU and Iceland agreed to drop almost all import duties on agricultural products[1]. In addition to all of that, with global warming gearing up the Northeast Passage[2] might become a viable shipping route between China and Europe, at that point shipping from China to Norway will be the shortest shipping route between China and Europe by far. Sailing from China to Europe via the NEP to Norway cuts time at sea and fuel consumption by more than half compared to going via the Suez Canal. 1. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20170911IPR83504/eu-to-boost-trade-with-iceland http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20170911IPR... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Passage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Passage
- DRAOBE 9y ago
  Uh, what sort of conflict do you think China could provoke? I have a hard time seeing a free salmon treaty with China giving rise to more conflict than normal neighbor disputes. If Norway started selling all its oil to China, then we'd have something. But the EU borders Norway, and China doesn't so there isn't much in favour of it. In addition, China doesn't border the EU, so I don't think it sees much value in a divided EU (as opposed to Russia). To them it is probably more interesting to distance the EU from the US.
  - avar 9y ago
    I don't know what sort of FTA Norway was in the process of negotiating in 2010, but if it's anything like the treaty it signed with Iceland in 2013 calling it a "free salmon treaty" is the understatement of the century. You can read the full list of tariff concessions by Iceland[1], as well as the rest of the treaty[2] MFA website. It covers anything from food, tools, machinery, to raw ore and metals to finished nuclear reactors. Almost all tariffs on Chinese goods entering Iceland are set at 0%. This means that Iceland (or hypothetically Norway in the future) can import say cheap industrial acids from China, and use them to make finished products that could be sold to the EU market using existing EU/EEA trade deals that give preferential tariff treatment to EEA members. That's the potential conflict I'm talking about. China's setting up agreements where a country with wide access to its internal markets has better access to cheap Chinese goods than other EU/EEA countries. Which means that either the EU needs to slow down liberalization of trade with Iceland (and perhaps Norway in the future) least they essentially become hubs to evade EU duties on Chinese goods, which'll pull those countries further into the Chinese sphere of influence. Or it'll need to make similar deals itself, or otherwise live with the resulting trade imbalance with Iceland and Norway becoming re-exporters of Chinese goods. 1. https://www.mfa.is/media/fta-kina/Vidauki-I---Tollaaetlanir---Island.pdf https://www.mfa.is/media/fta-kina/Vidauki-I---Tollaaetlanir-... 2. https://www.mfa.is/foreign-policy/trade/free-trade-agreement-between-iceland-and-china/ https://www.mfa.is/foreign-policy/trade/free-trade-agreement...