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I think we're heading for a massive bubble, if Uber collapses investors everywhere will be spooked, "too big to fail" comes to mind. Every ride Uber loses mone

I think we're heading for a massive bubble, if Uber collapses investors everywhere will be spooked, "too big to fail" comes to mind. Every ride Uber loses money. If they raise prices, then people jump ship, to Lyft, to a local service, to taxis. If self-driving cars don't start being used they can't cut down the cost... Of course, they also have lawsuits hitting them, and the Waymo lawsuit pretty much halted their self-driving car program. Combine all this with the ridiculous number of lawsuits, investigations and criminal proceedings outside of IP that they are facing ("Grey ball" for instance) and I just don't see how they can maintain their status. Even with another $1 Billion or $10 billion. How can they come out of this? Couple that with having a large number of "chefs in the kitchen" so to speak and well... you get the idea.

FLUX-YOU 9y ago
>I think we're heading for a massive bubble, if Uber collapses investors everywhere will be spooked, "too big to fail" comes to mind. I don't think a company that's had a ton of controversy around it is going to suddenly spook everyone if it fails. I would expect an Uber failure to already be priced into the market.
- ellius 9y ago
  I think the bigger spook will be if the entire market for on-demand drivers suffers a big decline in demand. Izabella Kaminska of the Financial Times has written several articles arguing that the Uber / Lyft model is fundamentally uneconomic. Without arguing for or against her, if that turns out to be true you are going to terrify a large number of investors. Nothing else has really looked as much like a sure-thing disruption opportunity as the taxi market. Anecdotally, my most recent Lyft driver recently told me that Lyft has started playing a lot of the same games to shaft drivers that she left Uber to get away from. It does make me start to wonder if the entire thing is largely subsidized by a market flooded with cheap money.
aetherson 9y ago
I don't see any real sign that the Waymo lawsuit halted their self-driving car program. It may yet, but so far, what it's forced them to do is "fire Levandowski." I do think it was always ridiculous to imagine that Uber would create a durable advantage in driverless cars. For better or for worse, Uber is the paramount example of the post-social-media dominated tech startup scene. If it turns out to be massively overvalued, I think you're right that it will absolutely spook investment in tech. Everyone's going to be asking, "If these investors were so massively wrong on Uber, after dumping billions and billions into it, how much insight could they possibly have?" I don't know that that will mean a tech "bubble" or collapse, but I think it'll be way harder to raise money in tech for a while if Uber's ultimate valuation is, say, south of $10B.
overcast 9y ago
I don't see how Uber is considered "too big to fail". They aren't the banking system, they are a ride hailing app. If they go away, people go back to using cabs.
- lettergram 9y ago
  I don't mean in that sense. In my mind, investors are having to deal with the sunk cost falicy. Every investor is bringing more investors in, which will drag everyone down.
- gaius 9y ago
  One ride from another app, and people will forget Uber ever existed.
tosstossy 9y ago
I think you're reading tea leaves, trying to create industry meaning where it's quite obviously a pathological case of Uber's leadership being scumbags.
nikcub 9y ago
> Every ride Uber loses money. That isn't true - they're profitable in a lot of markets[0]. They're subsidizing rides in new and developing cities where they're capturing market [0] https://www.businessinsider.com.au/uber-profitable-in-hundreds-of-cities-2016-6?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com.au/uber-profitable-in-hundre...
dbuder 9y ago
I don't believe Uber loses money, I think they are liars.

FLUX-YOU 9y ago

>I think we're heading for a massive bubble, if Uber collapses investors everywhere will be spooked, "too big to fail" comes to mind. I don't think a company that's had a ton of controversy around it is going to suddenly spook everyone if it fails. I would expect an Uber failure to already be priced into the market.

ellius 9y ago
I think the bigger spook will be if the entire market for on-demand drivers suffers a big decline in demand. Izabella Kaminska of the Financial Times has written several articles arguing that the Uber / Lyft model is fundamentally uneconomic. Without arguing for or against her, if that turns out to be true you are going to terrify a large number of investors. Nothing else has really looked as much like a sure-thing disruption opportunity as the taxi market. Anecdotally, my most recent Lyft driver recently told me that Lyft has started playing a lot of the same games to shaft drivers that she left Uber to get away from. It does make me start to wonder if the entire thing is largely subsidized by a market flooded with cheap money.

aetherson 9y ago

I don't see any real sign that the Waymo lawsuit halted their self-driving car program. It may yet, but so far, what it's forced them to do is "fire Levandowski." I do think it was always ridiculous to imagine that Uber would create a durable advantage in driverless cars. For better or for worse, Uber is the paramount example of the post-social-media dominated tech startup scene. If it turns out to be massively overvalued, I think you're right that it will absolutely spook investment in tech. Everyone's going to be asking, "If these investors were so massively wrong on Uber, after dumping billions and billions into it, how much insight could they possibly have?" I don't know that that will mean a tech "bubble" or collapse, but I think it'll be way harder to raise money in tech for a while if Uber's ultimate valuation is, say, south of $10B.

overcast 9y ago

I don't see how Uber is considered "too big to fail". They aren't the banking system, they are a ride hailing app. If they go away, people go back to using cabs.

lettergram 9y ago
I don't mean in that sense. In my mind, investors are having to deal with the sunk cost falicy. Every investor is bringing more investors in, which will drag everyone down.
gaius 9y ago
One ride from another app, and people will forget Uber ever existed.

tosstossy 9y ago

I think you're reading tea leaves, trying to create industry meaning where it's quite obviously a pathological case of Uber's leadership being scumbags.

nikcub 9y ago

> Every ride Uber loses money. That isn't true - they're profitable in a lot of markets[0]. They're subsidizing rides in new and developing cities where they're capturing market [0] https://www.businessinsider.com.au/uber-profitable-in-hundreds-of-cities-2016-6?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com.au/uber-profitable-in-hundre...

dbuder 9y ago

I don't believe Uber loses money, I think they are liars.