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My layman understanding is that investors think Amazon still has enormous room to grow because Amazon's current market share of the entire US retail industry (o
by sah2ed 9y ago
My layman understanding is that investors think Amazon still has enormous room to grow because Amazon's current market share of the entire US retail industry (online + offline retail) is about 7%.
The one thing that will make online shopping appealing to far more consumers is same-day and eventually 1-hr deliveries, irrespective of your location in the continental US and the only way to do this reliably is when fulfilment is automated end-to-end.
For fulfilment to be fully automated, self-driving cars and trucks need to be a reality as that is the only way to cap shipping costs in order to guarantee Amazon's promise of low prices.
In order words, investors think Amazon's market share will grow even more as distribution costs start to fall when the shift from human to self-driving trucks becomes economically and technologically feasible.
Self-driving cars are still at least decade out, IMHO. Add another decade for regulations (e.g. which party is directly liable in X types of accidents?) and infrastructure (e.g. cooperative signalling, standardized charging stations etc) to catch up. This is why Jeff Bezos likes to stress that it is still Day 1 at Amazon.
- saosebastiao 9y agoI can guarantee you that the Day 1 phrase at Amazon has exactly 0% to do with driverless cars. And it is foolish to ascribe any singular viewpoint to investors in general. While some investors may hold the views you do, you’re likely suffering from a false consensus bias if you think your views are shared by anything more than a single digit percentage of investors in general or even specifically Amazon’s investors. As for the rest of your theory, I also think it is complete rubbish, but feel free to do with your money as you please.
- sah2ed 9y agoSigh. You throw around words like foolish, bias, rubbish instead of providing a well reasoned counter argument. So all you have done is dish out a middle brow dismissal, well done.