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> So you're saying Amazon is no different -- they'll try and take on nearly every industry, but will really only have one core competence in 20 years? I think
by kogepathic 9y ago
> So you're saying Amazon is no different -- they'll try and take on nearly every industry, but will really only have one core competence in 20 years?
I think that 20 years ago people couldn't see a competitor coming along that could disrupt Microsoft, because they were so big and into everything.
But that's because no one foresaw the coming of the smartphone. Microsoft is still king on PCs, but the PC market has been in decline for years. Back in the early 00's no one predicted the iPhone and Android, and what a massive impact they would have on the PC market.
I would argue that Microsoft actually has two core competencies today: Office, and services (e.g. Windows/Azure). But yes, they definitely went from "king of everything" to "well enterprise still uses them" remarkably quickly.
tl;dr - Something will likely disrupt Amazon, but it's difficult for us to predict what that will be until it happens
- biocomputation 9y agoTotally agree. Amazon's problem is that it has a very large surface area. To competitors, that can be a feature or a bug.
- danenania 9y agoI think AWS in particular will be facing some major threats over the next 5-10 years, from Google but also from emerging players. Everything that makes them a top choice today is getting commodified, and they are rapidly falling behind on developer experience as they layer more and more complexity onto their workflows.
- Y7ZCQtNo39 9y agoI feel like AWS is already seeing threats. In the timeframe of 5-10 years, absolutely will that space look quite different. Personally, I find AWS' interface to be super clunky. In fact, I find all of Amazon's interfaces (AWS, Amazon.com, the Amazon iOS app, to name a few) to really be poor examples of UX.