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Yes, but it is news for investors. Missing productions goals as a startup is different than missing production numbers as a public company that is arguably quit

Yes, but it is news for investors. Missing productions goals as a startup is different than missing production numbers as a public company that is arguably quite overvalued. It matters because if it effects their share price, that can have important downstream effects on their eventual ability to execute (e.g. secure more loans). Edit: I am not trying to say that Tesla should be punished, but am specifically addressing that it is, in fact, news.

colechristensen 9y ago
It is especially not news for investors. It encourages terrible behavior when people focus on this sort of dumb number. Projecting problems and solutions at the beginning of production is more or less impossible. Valuing a company based on the accuracy of what is litte more than random noise makes you a bad investor, making it a headline news story makes you a bad editor. It's only news if it shows an _actual_ problem instead of showing what it actually shows ... which is random chance pushing around production scaling schedules.
- jryle80 9y ago
  It's news because Tesla projected to have delivered 1,500 Model 3 by end of 3rd quarter. They missed that milestone. Simple as that. I wouldn't read too much into this myself. Scaling production is hard. Regardless, it's an important metric that speaks to Tesla's ability to deliver, at least short term.
- bisRepetita 9y ago
  Are you saying one should not value a company based on what they're saying? Then in Q2 when they wrote "Based on our preparedness at this time, we are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3", then we should not believe them. So why do they bother saying this? If they got an uplift then, they get punished a bit now, that's fair, life goes on.
  - sjwright 9y ago
    The only question is how this affects the ongoing production ramp-up. A relatively short delay on the delivery of a thousand cars is barely a rounding error to the underlying business case, and won't have any lasting consequences once they've ramped up production to full speed.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  It's not news investors should give a great deal of importance to, but it is news aimed squarely at investors, by Tesla itself.
- prostoalex 9y ago
  > Valuing a company based on the accuracy of what is litte more than random noise makes you a bad investor Some investors will value on random noise, and some other investors will figure this out and capture the mispricing, if there's any.
  - lafar6502 9y ago
    So why bother about Tesla at all? It’s all hot air...
    - prostoalex 9y ago
      Significant portion of TSLA float is short https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/short_interest https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/short_interest and that's before we get into the options activity, so any whiff of news usually impacts those side games in a significant way. There's a strong incentive for either side to overblow a piece of news that fits their agenda.
- refurb 9y ago
  If Musk hadn't promised 1500 units, then you're right, it wouldn't be a big deal.

colechristensen 9y ago

It is especially not news for investors. It encourages terrible behavior when people focus on this sort of dumb number. Projecting problems and solutions at the beginning of production is more or less impossible. Valuing a company based on the accuracy of what is litte more than random noise makes you a bad investor, making it a headline news story makes you a bad editor. It's only news if it shows an _actual_ problem instead of showing what it actually shows ... which is random chance pushing around production scaling schedules.

jryle80 9y ago
It's news because Tesla projected to have delivered 1,500 Model 3 by end of 3rd quarter. They missed that milestone. Simple as that. I wouldn't read too much into this myself. Scaling production is hard. Regardless, it's an important metric that speaks to Tesla's ability to deliver, at least short term.
bisRepetita 9y ago
Are you saying one should not value a company based on what they're saying? Then in Q2 when they wrote "Based on our preparedness at this time, we are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3", then we should not believe them. So why do they bother saying this? If they got an uplift then, they get punished a bit now, that's fair, life goes on.
- sjwright 9y ago
  The only question is how this affects the ongoing production ramp-up. A relatively short delay on the delivery of a thousand cars is barely a rounding error to the underlying business case, and won't have any lasting consequences once they've ramped up production to full speed.
maxerickson 9y ago
It's not news investors should give a great deal of importance to, but it is news aimed squarely at investors, by Tesla itself.
prostoalex 9y ago
> Valuing a company based on the accuracy of what is litte more than random noise makes you a bad investor Some investors will value on random noise, and some other investors will figure this out and capture the mispricing, if there's any.
- lafar6502 9y ago
  So why bother about Tesla at all? It’s all hot air...
  - prostoalex 9y ago
    Significant portion of TSLA float is short https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/short_interest https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/short_interest and that's before we get into the options activity, so any whiff of news usually impacts those side games in a significant way. There's a strong incentive for either side to overblow a piece of news that fits their agenda.
refurb 9y ago
If Musk hadn't promised 1500 units, then you're right, it wouldn't be a big deal.