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Based on his track record, Musk often sets unrealistic timeline goals (and unrealistic engineering goals, but he usually meets those). This has happened multipl

Based on his track record, Musk often sets unrealistic timeline goals (and unrealistic engineering goals, but he usually meets those). This has happened multiple times with both Tesla and SpaceX, not surprised this happened.

kchoudhu 9y ago
You understand that missing material estimates has legal implications if you do it too many times? Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Tesla isn't a startup working out of someone's garage -- it is a large player in a heavily regulated capital market. Estimates and guidance are for investors, not for people on the street: they are supposed to mean something.
- sowbug 9y ago
  > Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Are you sure about that? The only thing I start thinking is that the person making the estimates is being consistent.
- prostoalex 9y ago
  This is not a material estimate, this is an estimate that Tesla, for whatever reason, volunteered. Other manufacturers don't really do that, which is why you rarely see the headlines of Dodge Durango being three weeks behind schedule.
  - slededit 9y ago
    Material in this sense means that it has relevance to the share price of the stock. Tesla's Model 3 ramp up schedule is material information. You are right they could have not volunteered it, but since they did they have a duty to ensure it was the most accurate estimate they had at the time of release. If it turns out that they knew or should have known they wouldn't make the schedule then they are liable for misleading investors.
- dx034 9y ago
  They'll be able to show the calculations that led to the assumptions. As long as those are valid, regulators won't act. But many public companies have discovered that conservative forecasts with positive surprises are better for the share price than optimistic forecasts with profit/production warnings.
  - kchoudhu 9y ago
    As it turns out, they knew full well that fully automated production wouldn't be possible in the upcoming quarter when the statement was made (i.e. they were manufacturing cars by hand, without an assembly line). They lied to investors to keep the stock price pumped. Not cool.
- btian 9y ago
  Which regulators? You don't read safe harbor statements?
Yoshimadashi 9y ago
Considering how outlandish and unrealistic his goals are usually, I feel like this is not even worth reporting on. I feel like it would be better to report on when he actually achieves the original deadline he set out.
kornish 9y ago
The running joke that I've heard is that Elon operates on Mars years – if you multiply his projections by 1.88x, that's frequently closer to the mark. :)
theyregreat 9y ago
If you want excellence, demand the unreasonable.

kchoudhu 9y ago

You understand that missing material estimates has legal implications if you do it too many times? Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Tesla isn't a startup working out of someone's garage -- it is a large player in a heavily regulated capital market. Estimates and guidance are for investors, not for people on the street: they are supposed to mean something.

sowbug 9y ago
> Regulators can and do start thinking that you have something to hide. Are you sure about that? The only thing I start thinking is that the person making the estimates is being consistent.
prostoalex 9y ago
This is not a material estimate, this is an estimate that Tesla, for whatever reason, volunteered. Other manufacturers don't really do that, which is why you rarely see the headlines of Dodge Durango being three weeks behind schedule.
- slededit 9y ago
  Material in this sense means that it has relevance to the share price of the stock. Tesla's Model 3 ramp up schedule is material information. You are right they could have not volunteered it, but since they did they have a duty to ensure it was the most accurate estimate they had at the time of release. If it turns out that they knew or should have known they wouldn't make the schedule then they are liable for misleading investors.
dx034 9y ago
They'll be able to show the calculations that led to the assumptions. As long as those are valid, regulators won't act. But many public companies have discovered that conservative forecasts with positive surprises are better for the share price than optimistic forecasts with profit/production warnings.
- kchoudhu 9y ago
  As it turns out, they knew full well that fully automated production wouldn't be possible in the upcoming quarter when the statement was made (i.e. they were manufacturing cars by hand, without an assembly line). They lied to investors to keep the stock price pumped. Not cool.
btian 9y ago
Which regulators? You don't read safe harbor statements?

Yoshimadashi 9y ago

Considering how outlandish and unrealistic his goals are usually, I feel like this is not even worth reporting on. I feel like it would be better to report on when he actually achieves the original deadline he set out.

kornish 9y ago

The running joke that I've heard is that Elon operates on Mars years – if you multiply his projections by 1.88x, that's frequently closer to the mark. :)

theyregreat 9y ago

If you want excellence, demand the unreasonable.