I like to reduce this to a German Tank problem: Let's say there are a few hundred hydrogen atoms being simulated in a supercomputer somewhere, and let's say tha

I like to reduce this to a German Tank problem: Let's say there are a few hundred hydrogen atoms being simulated in a supercomputer somewhere, and let's say that you are a hydrogen atom. You want to know: am I real one or a simulated one? Well, there are on the order of 10^78 real atoms in the universe, and a dozen or so simulated ones. So yeah, you're a real one. In a more abstract sense, the number of degrees of freedom in any real universe is greater than the number of degrees of freedom in all the simulated universes it contains. So you're always more likely to be in a real universe.