4 ms·
Game theoretically, the fact that the Spanish government was so dead set against the vote implies that they thought there was a significant probability that it
by bjterry 9y ago
Game theoretically, the fact that the Spanish government was so dead set against the vote implies that they thought there was a significant probability that it would be over 50% regardless. It seems like if a government resorts to violence to stop separatism movements, that violence is prima facie evidence that the separatist sentiment potentially represents the majority of a region.
I have actually been surprised by Spain's response to this. I have always assumed that self-determination was a principle that modern Europeans actually believed in, rather than something that was only a political convenience. I don't know that much about history, though, so perhaps I could be more cynical on the topic.
- Mikeb85 9y agoNo western government believes in self-determination. They only believe in results that favour western hegemony. For example, Orange Revolution = good. Crimean referendum = bad. Arab Spring = good. Independent Kurdistan = bad. And so on.
- wott 9y agoCataluña es España = good Косово је Србија = bad
- sgc 9y agoI don't know if you have spent much time in Spain, but they have a tendency to be pretty heavy handed even when they don't need to be. It is a large contributor to the Basque separatist movement for example. I am still waiting to get better numbers on how many people voted etc. since the reports are wildly disparate, but I wouldn't be surprised if the move was more to send a message to other separatist movements than to deal with today in itself. Regardless, I think the bigger take away from these events is that they have made their bed and now must lay in it. Almost any result of this vote could have been more easily dealt with in almost any other way they could imagine.