That's not the right way to phrase the question. The question is: If Kim Jong Un feels in any way trapped, helpless, or doomed; why would he not attack? So th

That's not the right way to phrase the question. The question is: If Kim Jong Un feels in any way trapped, helpless, or doomed; why would he not attack? So the risk is broadened to anything that can cause these feelings in a single person: internal politics, externally-perceived (real or imaginary) threats or actions, mental illness, disease, civil unrest in the DPRK, deterioration of the relationship with China, sanctions, internal military failures or public test failures, internal sabotage to the military program, or anything else that I haven't thought of.