All totally true, but the interesting thing is that even when they made those same assumptions (which seem to me, at least, the most reasonable assumptions), pe

All totally true, but the interesting thing is that even when they made those same assumptions (which seem to me, at least, the most reasonable assumptions), people - including the PhDs - still assessed the probabilities incorrectly. The really difficult thing to get your head around is that the door you chose still has a 1/3 probability, despite the fact that you know there are two doors, one of which hides the car, and the other hides the goat.