6 ms·

> If it would work, and the cost benefit ratio were there, people would adopt it quickly. That's what happens with just about everything else. Great point! Jus

by jwfxpr 9y ago

> If it would work, and the cost benefit ratio were there, people would adopt it quickly. That's what happens with just about everything else. Great point! Just like: * Betamax * HD DVD * Minidisc * Hoverboards * IPV6 * DNSSEC * PGP & PKI * Linux desktops * Dvorak keyboards * The metric system * Decimal time * [flavour-of-the-month programming language] * [flavour-of-the-month database] * [flavour-of-the-month cypher] * ... The factors that influence the proliferation of a technology are wildly divergent from the criteria 'works well, cost/benefit'. I'm not even sure those are weakly correlated proxy indicators of technology uptake.

katastic 9y ago
Actually, it's pretty simple. "Better" has to actually "be better ENOUGH" to warrant all of the retooling of existing systems. I've got plenty of clients who would happily run Windows 2003 ("it's paid for") if it weren't for changing standards that aren't compatible (newer TLS, Exchange, etc) and security breaches. They only upgrade because they have to. "E-mail is e-mail" to them. But if you sell them some magical new technology that promises to meet new features, like tons of data analysis tools and easily graphs and charts in a new version of CRM, they'll happily upgrade.
- lgierth 9y ago
  Another important factor for adoption/adoptability is how well the new system integrates with existing deployments of older systems. Ideally it completely interoperates with the older systems, while providing you with additional value right from the start.
  - carolc 9y ago
    Agreed with lgierth and I believe this is what sets IPFS apart from many similar technologies: integration path for existing technologies. As far as I can tell, it has been an important design decision from early on for IPFS.
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  That only answers some of those examples. It's pretty visible in tech that it's not actually the only (or main) reason, especially when you see companies continuously switching from one crappy tool to another. Tech is a fashion-driven industry; companies use what is hot and/or what everyone else is using. Both of those create a positive feedback loop that amplifies brief spikes in popularity (easily exploitable through marketing) beyond any reasonable proportion. The worst thing is, though, that it kind of makes sense from the POV of management. The more popular something is, the less risk there is in using it, especially when the decisionmaker doesn't have enough knowledge to evaluate the options. Also, the more mainstream a given technology is, the cheaper and easier to replace programmers.
vog 9y ago
> The metric system While I agree with your sentiment, this one is a bad example. I grew up with the metric system, as did the vast majority of the world. I have an intuition for "meter", "kilograms", "seconds", and so on. I need to convert to cumbersome stuff like "miles", "inches" or "pounds" only when reading articles written by, you know, inhabitants of that strange, large country over there.
- Houshalter 9y ago
  It's still a good example because the government in your country probably mandated it. People didn't just switch on their own accord.
  - vog 9y ago
    IBTD. This is mostly an educational issue. Here in Germany the metric system was introduced in 1872 [1], and compared to other European countries we were already late to the party. That's plenty of time for transition. The last generation who didn't work with the metric system is dead for a very, very long time. [1] The history is actually more complicated, but let's not get into that.
    - uncle_d 9y ago
      Nicholas Nassim Taleb on the logic of the imperial system: https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375 https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375
      - kylemuir 9y ago
        > A furlong is the distance one can sprint before running out of breath That doesn't seem very logical at all, that's entirely subjective. I'm fairly certain a top sprinter would easily be able to sprint much further than my (admittedly) unfit self before running out of breath.
        Spivak 9y ago
gear54rus 9y ago
It was a good list until... > The metric system Really? You know that the whole world is on it, right? And that it makes far more sense than whatever nonsense someone came up with before.
vurpo 9y ago
You're implying that the metric system and IPv6 aren't being used in great numbers today, which is false.
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  I guess metric system is there to drive the point home to the Americans in the audience, and IPv6 as an example of something used but not enough to matter. (Here's my new conspiracy theory: lack of adoption of IPv6 is caused by SaaS companies colluding to keep people and companies from being able to trivially self-host stuff.)

by jwfxpr 9y ago

katastic 9y ago

Actually, it's pretty simple. "Better" has to actually "be better ENOUGH" to warrant all of the retooling of existing systems. I've got plenty of clients who would happily run Windows 2003 ("it's paid for") if it weren't for changing standards that aren't compatible (newer TLS, Exchange, etc) and security breaches. They only upgrade because they have to. "E-mail is e-mail" to them. But if you sell them some magical new technology that promises to meet new features, like tons of data analysis tools and easily graphs and charts in a new version of CRM, they'll happily upgrade.

lgierth 9y ago
Another important factor for adoption/adoptability is how well the new system integrates with existing deployments of older systems. Ideally it completely interoperates with the older systems, while providing you with additional value right from the start.
- carolc 9y ago
  Agreed with lgierth and I believe this is what sets IPFS apart from many similar technologies: integration path for existing technologies. As far as I can tell, it has been an important design decision from early on for IPFS.
TeMPOraL 9y ago
That only answers some of those examples. It's pretty visible in tech that it's not actually the only (or main) reason, especially when you see companies continuously switching from one crappy tool to another. Tech is a fashion-driven industry; companies use what is hot and/or what everyone else is using. Both of those create a positive feedback loop that amplifies brief spikes in popularity (easily exploitable through marketing) beyond any reasonable proportion. The worst thing is, though, that it kind of makes sense from the POV of management. The more popular something is, the less risk there is in using it, especially when the decisionmaker doesn't have enough knowledge to evaluate the options. Also, the more mainstream a given technology is, the cheaper and easier to replace programmers.

vog 9y ago

> The metric system While I agree with your sentiment, this one is a bad example. I grew up with the metric system, as did the vast majority of the world. I have an intuition for "meter", "kilograms", "seconds", and so on. I need to convert to cumbersome stuff like "miles", "inches" or "pounds" only when reading articles written by, you know, inhabitants of that strange, large country over there.

Houshalter 9y ago
It's still a good example because the government in your country probably mandated it. People didn't just switch on their own accord.
- vog 9y ago
  IBTD. This is mostly an educational issue. Here in Germany the metric system was introduced in 1872 [1], and compared to other European countries we were already late to the party. That's plenty of time for transition. The last generation who didn't work with the metric system is dead for a very, very long time. [1] The history is actually more complicated, but let's not get into that.
  - uncle_d 9y ago
    Nicholas Nassim Taleb on the logic of the imperial system: https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375 https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10153932393103375
    - kylemuir 9y ago
      > A furlong is the distance one can sprint before running out of breath That doesn't seem very logical at all, that's entirely subjective. I'm fairly certain a top sprinter would easily be able to sprint much further than my (admittedly) unfit self before running out of breath.
      - Spivak 9y ago

gear54rus 9y ago

It was a good list until... > The metric system Really? You know that the whole world is on it, right? And that it makes far more sense than whatever nonsense someone came up with before.

vurpo 9y ago

You're implying that the metric system and IPv6 aren't being used in great numbers today, which is false.

TeMPOraL 9y ago
I guess metric system is there to drive the point home to the Americans in the audience, and IPv6 as an example of something used but not enough to matter. (Here's my new conspiracy theory: lack of adoption of IPv6 is caused by SaaS companies colluding to keep people and companies from being able to trivially self-host stuff.)