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He mentions in his presentation that the BFR will have more pressurized cargo space than an A380, which can carry 853 passengers in an all-economy configuration
by ajnin 9y ago
He mentions in his presentation that the BFR will have more pressurized cargo space than an A380, which can carry 853 passengers in an all-economy configuration. Let's say the BFR would carry a bit more that that, and prices would be a bit less than $1k, that would bring the flight budget in the order of $500k to $1M very roughly.
Let's try to estimate fuel costs, according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_Transport_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_Transport_Syste...) propellant costs $168 per tonne, and the spaceship can hold 1950t of it, so assuming one full tank per trip, that's $328k for fuel.
The actual cost of the rocket is around $200M, assuming a service life of 1000 flights, that's a $200k amortized cost per flight.
Add a few hundred k for launchpad, personnel, administrative costs of various kinds, and you get in the $500k to $1M ballpark.
So on the back of the envelope it looks about break-even. Maybe there's a sufficient market of people willing to pay a premium for very fast travel to make this profitable.
- godelski 9y agoI didn't realize he said 853 passengers. In the article it mentions 40 cabins. So I rounded to 50. We still don't get enough for fuel. And 1000 flights is pretty optimistic. Especially at this stage. Their rockets already aren't fully reusable (only just having tested reuse) and they have to replace parts. 10 flights is optimistic, let alone 1k. I'm sure we'll get there at some point, but I see no evidence of that technology currently. I'm just saying that there are a lot of red flags and that one should be really skeptical.