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The housing bit interests me but I can't take it seriously when they're pointing at the single most irrationally priced area in the nation to make the overall s

The housing bit interests me but I can't take it seriously when they're pointing at the single most irrationally priced area in the nation to make the overall situation look similar. Yes, if you want to live in SF you can expect to pay utterly idiotic amounts. But that's pretty much isolated to SF.

mabbo 9y ago
The value of my condo has gone up by over 60% in two years. Canada, Toronto especially, is in for some rough times in this housing bubble. The real issue is that the big cities like Toronto are the economic centers of the region. When they pop, everything else will be in trouble too.
- Nokinside 9y ago
  The value of your condo going up gives very limited information if there is bubble or not. If you want to figure out what the correct price level is, find statistics that compares price of housing to median income in your area over time. That's the single most important metric determining the correct property valuations. Prices can go up as long as incomes go up. Major cities have higher productivity and prices can go up until they start to eat too much from the income. In declining areas prices can go down and houses are still overvalued.
  - bob_theslob646 9y ago
    Why not check the amount of domestic buyers versus foreign buyers?
    - Nokinside 9y ago
      That's good idea in some specific areas and price categories.
  - mabbo 9y ago
    Wages did not go up by 60% in two years. They barely went up at all.
    - Nokinside 9y ago
      Of course they didn't. But that's not the issue. What is the price/income ratio now compared to long term average? How much of the 60% can be explained with prices rebounding to long term normal. ps. I'm almost sure that house prices in Toronto are exceptionally high compared to income. I'm not arguing against that. I'm arguing against people using wrong numbers to measure things. Find relevant numbers and use them. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp
ianleeclark 9y ago
The housing index confused me too, as they chose a year after a huge collapse in the housing market as a comparative point. I'm not saying US homes aren't overvalued--or that they are--but it's misrepresentative of the state of the market: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

mabbo 9y ago

The value of my condo has gone up by over 60% in two years. Canada, Toronto especially, is in for some rough times in this housing bubble. The real issue is that the big cities like Toronto are the economic centers of the region. When they pop, everything else will be in trouble too.

Nokinside 9y ago
The value of your condo going up gives very limited information if there is bubble or not. If you want to figure out what the correct price level is, find statistics that compares price of housing to median income in your area over time. That's the single most important metric determining the correct property valuations. Prices can go up as long as incomes go up. Major cities have higher productivity and prices can go up until they start to eat too much from the income. In declining areas prices can go down and houses are still overvalued.
- bob_theslob646 9y ago
  Why not check the amount of domestic buyers versus foreign buyers?
  - Nokinside 9y ago
    That's good idea in some specific areas and price categories.
- mabbo 9y ago
  Wages did not go up by 60% in two years. They barely went up at all.
  - Nokinside 9y ago
    Of course they didn't. But that's not the issue. What is the price/income ratio now compared to long term average? How much of the 60% can be explained with prices rebounding to long term normal. ps. I'm almost sure that house prices in Toronto are exceptionally high compared to income. I'm not arguing against that. I'm arguing against people using wrong numbers to measure things. Find relevant numbers and use them. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

ianleeclark 9y ago

The housing index confused me too, as they chose a year after a huge collapse in the housing market as a comparative point. I'm not saying US homes aren't overvalued--or that they are--but it's misrepresentative of the state of the market: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA