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Official US government "unemployment" rates only include people who are "jobless, looking for a job, and available for work". This means that the graduate who c

Official US government "unemployment" rates only include people who are "jobless, looking for a job, and available for work". This means that the graduate who can't find work, gives up, and goes back to his parents' basement is not unemployed. The guy who can't work anymore due to injury or chronic illness, barely surviving on disability, is not unemployed. The man begging for change outside the subway, who doesn't look for work because no one will hire someone who can't get clean clothes or a shower, is not unemployed. They are, rather, "not in the labor force." Keep this in mind when you hear someone saying that unemployment is down. Source: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#concepts https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#concepts

thephyber 9y ago
The old U3 vs. U6 argument gets tired quickly. It's not a conspiracy that the government still relies heavily on U3 -- it's just more useful for what the government does and it's more accurate than U6 measurements. U3 is the official measurement because it has a long history and it's useful for simplifying policy decisions. It's also fairly accurate because it's largely based on unemployment insurance claims forms, which have to be re-filled every 1-2 weeks. U6 is also an BLS measurement[1] but it not as useful. It contains far more noise and is far harder to get an accurate count (because many of the constituent groups can't be surveyed without random samples). U3 will probably continue to be used as the "official" measurement so long as there are significant tradeoffs to moving to U6. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
- PhasmaFelis 9y ago
  I'm sure it has its uses, but when the news publishes an unemployment percentage that does not actually describe the percentage of people who are unemployed, that's deceptive and dishonest. I dunno if it's down to malice or just bureaucratic incompetence, but it's false either way. > It's also fairly accurate because it's largely based on unemployment insurance claims forms, which have to be re-filled every 1-2 weeks. That's even worse. You can only claim unemployment insurance for a few months after losing your job. Claiming that's more accurate because it's easier to measure is like the joke about the guy who lost his keys in the bushes, but is looking for them under the streetlamp because it's easier to see.

thephyber 9y ago

The old U3 vs. U6 argument gets tired quickly. It's not a conspiracy that the government still relies heavily on U3 -- it's just more useful for what the government does and it's more accurate than U6 measurements. U3 is the official measurement because it has a long history and it's useful for simplifying policy decisions. It's also fairly accurate because it's largely based on unemployment insurance claims forms, which have to be re-filled every 1-2 weeks. U6 is also an BLS measurement[1] but it not as useful. It contains far more noise and is far harder to get an accurate count (because many of the constituent groups can't be surveyed without random samples). U3 will probably continue to be used as the "official" measurement so long as there are significant tradeoffs to moving to U6. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

PhasmaFelis 9y ago
I'm sure it has its uses, but when the news publishes an unemployment percentage that does not actually describe the percentage of people who are unemployed, that's deceptive and dishonest. I dunno if it's down to malice or just bureaucratic incompetence, but it's false either way. > It's also fairly accurate because it's largely based on unemployment insurance claims forms, which have to be re-filled every 1-2 weeks. That's even worse. You can only claim unemployment insurance for a few months after losing your job. Claiming that's more accurate because it's easier to measure is like the joke about the guy who lost his keys in the bushes, but is looking for them under the streetlamp because it's easier to see.