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I got removed from a project because I was raining on everyone's blockchain fantasy. Later they begrudgingly admitted that blockchain wasn't going to solve the

I got removed from a project because I was raining on everyone's blockchain fantasy. Later they begrudgingly admitted that blockchain wasn't going to solve the hard interoperability problem we were facing (bog standard need to pull & analyze data from multiple incompatible data stores held by multiple independent parties). I can forgive all the business guys for that thinking given articles like these, but the tech guys who were fanning the fires of that fantasy and telling me I didn't understand blockchain.... I got the distinct impression that there is a growing cottage industry of tech consultants and outsource companies that realize that if they can get their clients to "do it on the blockchain" they will be able to bill 10x as much for a project that has a current very good solution (and relatively fast to implement solution). And for which blockchain won't be a benefit. But the client may very well be able to get more VC money, so it's starting to turn blockchain 'skeptics' into martyrs. And the most frustrating thing is that the innovation in Satoshi's paper (bringing together in a unique way prior known solutions) is really exciting and there are very good uses for blockchain. The international shipping companies using blockchain to track shipping container provenance strikes me as really, really perfect. The bad uses of blockchain is going to kill the tech before it's had time to mature naturally and find its place.

thesumofall 9y ago
The sceptics in the shipping industry are plenty as well, though. And it has been awfully quite around that pilot. Many wonder if the real challenge is really trust or not just incompatible data formats and plenty of non-digitized data...
- jacobush 9y ago
  Back in 2000 I was on a team of eight, digitising a freight system. (Handling about 50% IIRC of all foreign air freight to and from Sweden.) For a "parcel" of goods, I counted 17 paper copies of the same shipping form, being sent to and fro. Back then IATA also used a custom text field format instead of a standard XML format I think they use now. So while this was a long time ago, I too expect shipping to be fraught with lots of weird edge cases.
- greghinch 9y ago
  > incompatible data formats and plenty of non-digitized data This is exactly what many with a cursory knowledge seem to think a blockchain will solve. Unfortunately, these are generally challenges people have to talk about and resolve via mutual agreement and compromise; you can't simply throw code at the issue.
Top19 9y ago
Thank you for your comment. What you said is the best balance I’ve found of how bitcoin (and in my opinion also AI) is a really really really cool technology with a lot of potential, but also a complete scam.
slyfocks 9y ago
Thank you for being a voice of reason in a domain that has increasingly become overrun by frauds and zealots. As someone who has been involved in blockchain research since 2011, it’s sad to see a promising technology (in limited use cases) turn into a buzzword thrown around by the many speculators and scam artists peddling vaporware and pumping crypto prices.
- bartread 9y ago
  Yup: it's the Big Data hype train of 2013/2014 re-liveried and stopping soon at a station near you.
  - ooOOoo 9y ago
    According to Gartner, blockchain has just passed the "Peak of Inflated Expectations". Next phase is "Trough of Disillusionnment". http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017/ http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-...
    - thisisit 9y ago
      This one is funny. While cryptocurrency gets most of the brickbats around here on HN, I think Deep Learning is also in the same boat. Executives want to apply Deep Learning to everything and anything they can get their hands on. The results most of the time are underwhelming and could be had with a much simpler set of tools. Just wondering how long before Deep Learning goes into trough of disillusionment.
      - LoSboccacc 9y ago
        On the job I have to constantly shoot down big data / data mining / intelligent nn analysis crapware showeled to my bosses, and 99% of the time the answer is “you got NO data to speak of” One day a consultant or another yesman will be able to check in and syphon precious resources with their pipe dream and I’ll watch six figures fly out of the window while my dev team struggles debugging simulated ipads with mac minis.
tertius 9y ago
Still off of that project? Or did they actually admit it to you?
eksemplar 9y ago
The tech isn't going to die, it's just not going to change the world in any sexy way. Maersk is using it for something as boring as secure claims for containers to fight corruption in shipping. In government we're looking into running things like the land ownership registry and other public records on the tech. Not because it's hip, but because it'll save employee resources when we have to perform less audits, and because it'll speed response times.
- mercurialshark 9y ago
  Property title, availability of airspace, really any complex system that requires mutual cooperation (or at least awareness) could benefit from uniform distributed ledger technology.
  - root_axis 9y ago
    How would blockchains help with property title management?
    - mercurialshark 9y ago
      For a comprehensive answer see Avi Spielman's thesis, in "Blockchain: Digitally Rebuilding the Real Estate Industry" "The research to date leads to the following conclusions: A blockchain title recording system is the future of title record keeping and would provide immediate benefits over the current title recording system, with additional benefits accruing in the future as blockchain technology grows in acceptance. However, at the moment, these benefits do not yet outweigh the costs and challenges associated with implementing a prototype blockchain title registry system in Davidson County, or elsewhere in the country. That being said, steps can, and should be taken now to lay the foundation for a blockchain system." dci.mit.edu/assets/papers/spielman_thesis.pdfdci.mit.edu/assets/papers/spielman_thesis.pdf
      - root_axis 9y ago
        I can't find an explanation in your excerpt nor in the paper that gives specific details as to how the blockchain is uniquely beneficial for property title management. I see some examples of how certain qualities of the blockchain could be beneficial, (e.g. property owners being identified by a private key), but you don't need a blockchain to get any of those benefits.
puranjay 9y ago
The tech media (and tech startups) has this bad habit of hyping up technologies before they're ready for prime time. They did it with 3D printing, they did it with VR, and now they're doing it with blockchain.
- thisisit 9y ago
  As well as deep learning and AI.
- Angostura 9y ago
  They did appending 'Cloud' to everything too.
  - analyst74 9y ago
    To be fair, most things are moving to cloud. There is just no hype around it anymore because it is considered standard practice now.
xiphias 9y ago
There's an easy way to not be frustrated: just buy Bitcoin independently from what you're working on. If you understand what that means to own BTC 10 years from now, you know that malinvestments won't get you frustrated.
- LoSboccacc 9y ago
  Most of the future btc value is already inflating the current currency value. And there’s still the risk of a crash and switch in that long of a timeframe. I bet there’s more money to be had at cryptocurrency arbitrage
  - pyvpx 9y ago
    there sure is. but the marketplaces are so slow and fragile it's essentially impossible (aka too indeterministic/risky)
TwelveNights 9y ago
In the long run, countries which have fast tech adoption and strong logistic infrastructure will probably be the ones that will advance the field the fastest. It's exciting technology, but I so far don't see a lot of people using it in a practical way. We may be seeing China as the forerunner of blockchain technology, since there's immediate business advantages for their (enormous) manufacturing and logistics setup.
mkohlmyr 9y ago
Shipping is a really interesting application I had never really considered! That seems like a perfect fit, like you say. Is provenance in general a good usecase? e.g. chain of custody for evidence / drug testing / food labelling?
wslh 9y ago
A lie has short legs: if you dive into private blockchain projects you will realize they are mostly proof of concepts. This is not to say that ideas behind consensus, security, and smart contracts are not useful but you need to start with a concrete problem instead of adapting a fixed solution. Having said this, it is interesting to explore a pluggable way to make agreements between parties and follow defined workflows for interoperability. The main barrier with implementing this idea is not technical but political since it is difficult to create agreements about this architecture between companies (e.g. banks).
jnbiche 9y ago
Well done for sticking up for reason. I first got involved in Bitcoin in early 2011, but left the whole scene in 2015 because of the dwindling number of serious programmers and innovators and the increasing number of fraudsters and "marketers". Like you say, there are some incredibly innovative uses for the blockchain (another excellent one is claiming and tracking digital works of art like visual arts and music), but using the blockchain as a simple database replacement is ludicrous.
Snackchez 9y ago
Isn't that main goal of Chain Link? https://link.smartcontract.com https://link.smartcontract.com
Angostura 9y ago
If you don't mind expanding a bit, could you give some examples of areas where you think it has potential - I'm not really clued in enough at the moment to distinguish between real possibilities and snake-oil.
m12k 9y ago
Nah, those bad uses won't kill the tech, but the bubble will burst. But yes, I also notice a lot of companies that are riding the blockchain train in scenarios where a central server would be fine, and all they'll end up with is a needlessly complicated solution to their problem.

thesumofall 9y ago

The sceptics in the shipping industry are plenty as well, though. And it has been awfully quite around that pilot. Many wonder if the real challenge is really trust or not just incompatible data formats and plenty of non-digitized data...

jacobush 9y ago
Back in 2000 I was on a team of eight, digitising a freight system. (Handling about 50% IIRC of all foreign air freight to and from Sweden.) For a "parcel" of goods, I counted 17 paper copies of the same shipping form, being sent to and fro. Back then IATA also used a custom text field format instead of a standard XML format I think they use now. So while this was a long time ago, I too expect shipping to be fraught with lots of weird edge cases.
greghinch 9y ago
> incompatible data formats and plenty of non-digitized data This is exactly what many with a cursory knowledge seem to think a blockchain will solve. Unfortunately, these are generally challenges people have to talk about and resolve via mutual agreement and compromise; you can't simply throw code at the issue.

Top19 9y ago

Thank you for your comment. What you said is the best balance I’ve found of how bitcoin (and in my opinion also AI) is a really really really cool technology with a lot of potential, but also a complete scam.

slyfocks 9y ago

Thank you for being a voice of reason in a domain that has increasingly become overrun by frauds and zealots. As someone who has been involved in blockchain research since 2011, it’s sad to see a promising technology (in limited use cases) turn into a buzzword thrown around by the many speculators and scam artists peddling vaporware and pumping crypto prices.

bartread 9y ago
Yup: it's the Big Data hype train of 2013/2014 re-liveried and stopping soon at a station near you.
- ooOOoo 9y ago
  According to Gartner, blockchain has just passed the "Peak of Inflated Expectations". Next phase is "Trough of Disillusionnment". http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017/ http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-in-the-...
  - thisisit 9y ago
    This one is funny. While cryptocurrency gets most of the brickbats around here on HN, I think Deep Learning is also in the same boat. Executives want to apply Deep Learning to everything and anything they can get their hands on. The results most of the time are underwhelming and could be had with a much simpler set of tools. Just wondering how long before Deep Learning goes into trough of disillusionment.
    - LoSboccacc 9y ago
      On the job I have to constantly shoot down big data / data mining / intelligent nn analysis crapware showeled to my bosses, and 99% of the time the answer is “you got NO data to speak of” One day a consultant or another yesman will be able to check in and syphon precious resources with their pipe dream and I’ll watch six figures fly out of the window while my dev team struggles debugging simulated ipads with mac minis.

tertius 9y ago

Still off of that project? Or did they actually admit it to you?

eksemplar 9y ago

The tech isn't going to die, it's just not going to change the world in any sexy way. Maersk is using it for something as boring as secure claims for containers to fight corruption in shipping. In government we're looking into running things like the land ownership registry and other public records on the tech. Not because it's hip, but because it'll save employee resources when we have to perform less audits, and because it'll speed response times.

mercurialshark 9y ago
Property title, availability of airspace, really any complex system that requires mutual cooperation (or at least awareness) could benefit from uniform distributed ledger technology.
- root_axis 9y ago
  How would blockchains help with property title management?
  - mercurialshark 9y ago
    For a comprehensive answer see Avi Spielman's thesis, in "Blockchain: Digitally Rebuilding the Real Estate Industry" "The research to date leads to the following conclusions: A blockchain title recording system is the future of title record keeping and would provide immediate benefits over the current title recording system, with additional benefits accruing in the future as blockchain technology grows in acceptance. However, at the moment, these benefits do not yet outweigh the costs and challenges associated with implementing a prototype blockchain title registry system in Davidson County, or elsewhere in the country. That being said, steps can, and should be taken now to lay the foundation for a blockchain system." dci.mit.edu/assets/papers/spielman_thesis.pdfdci.mit.edu/assets/papers/spielman_thesis.pdf
    - root_axis 9y ago
      I can't find an explanation in your excerpt nor in the paper that gives specific details as to how the blockchain is uniquely beneficial for property title management. I see some examples of how certain qualities of the blockchain could be beneficial, (e.g. property owners being identified by a private key), but you don't need a blockchain to get any of those benefits.

puranjay 9y ago

The tech media (and tech startups) has this bad habit of hyping up technologies before they're ready for prime time. They did it with 3D printing, they did it with VR, and now they're doing it with blockchain.

thisisit 9y ago
As well as deep learning and AI.
Angostura 9y ago
They did appending 'Cloud' to everything too.
- analyst74 9y ago
  To be fair, most things are moving to cloud. There is just no hype around it anymore because it is considered standard practice now.

xiphias 9y ago

There's an easy way to not be frustrated: just buy Bitcoin independently from what you're working on. If you understand what that means to own BTC 10 years from now, you know that malinvestments won't get you frustrated.

LoSboccacc 9y ago
Most of the future btc value is already inflating the current currency value. And there’s still the risk of a crash and switch in that long of a timeframe. I bet there’s more money to be had at cryptocurrency arbitrage
- pyvpx 9y ago
  there sure is. but the marketplaces are so slow and fragile it's essentially impossible (aka too indeterministic/risky)

TwelveNights 9y ago

In the long run, countries which have fast tech adoption and strong logistic infrastructure will probably be the ones that will advance the field the fastest. It's exciting technology, but I so far don't see a lot of people using it in a practical way. We may be seeing China as the forerunner of blockchain technology, since there's immediate business advantages for their (enormous) manufacturing and logistics setup.

mkohlmyr 9y ago

Shipping is a really interesting application I had never really considered! That seems like a perfect fit, like you say. Is provenance in general a good usecase? e.g. chain of custody for evidence / drug testing / food labelling?

wslh 9y ago

A lie has short legs: if you dive into private blockchain projects you will realize they are mostly proof of concepts. This is not to say that ideas behind consensus, security, and smart contracts are not useful but you need to start with a concrete problem instead of adapting a fixed solution. Having said this, it is interesting to explore a pluggable way to make agreements between parties and follow defined workflows for interoperability. The main barrier with implementing this idea is not technical but political since it is difficult to create agreements about this architecture between companies (e.g. banks).

jnbiche 9y ago

Well done for sticking up for reason. I first got involved in Bitcoin in early 2011, but left the whole scene in 2015 because of the dwindling number of serious programmers and innovators and the increasing number of fraudsters and "marketers". Like you say, there are some incredibly innovative uses for the blockchain (another excellent one is claiming and tracking digital works of art like visual arts and music), but using the blockchain as a simple database replacement is ludicrous.

Snackchez 9y ago

Isn't that main goal of Chain Link? https://link.smartcontract.com https://link.smartcontract.com

Angostura 9y ago

If you don't mind expanding a bit, could you give some examples of areas where you think it has potential - I'm not really clued in enough at the moment to distinguish between real possibilities and snake-oil.

m12k 9y ago

Nah, those bad uses won't kill the tech, but the bubble will burst. But yes, I also notice a lot of companies that are riding the blockchain train in scenarios where a central server would be fine, and all they'll end up with is a needlessly complicated solution to their problem.