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> The directors of the Federal Reserve, if they had some secret interest in tricking everyone, wouldn't be flatly admitting they consider why inflation isn't hi

> The directors of the Federal Reserve, if they had some secret interest in tricking everyone, wouldn't be flatly admitting they consider why inflation isn't hitting targets a "mystery." [2] So you're saying these people with all the humility required to announce they have solved economic crises for at least a lifetime [1] wouldn't lie or deceive themselves ? I wouldn't make that point. Seems unlikely that hubris like that would be limited in any way. Central banks have a long history of ... well, either outright lying or incredible self-deception, including the federal reserve under this chair. [2] No sane person at this point believes the FED's economic predictions. To make the difference I would put forth this point: finding analyses that defend the point that the US government (and indeed almost all governments with pension obligations) would be bankrupt in 2 year with a 4% funds rate and 6% inflation is easy. In other words, the FEDs predictions, if implemented, would blow up governments, make them bankrupt. Not just the US government (in fact the US government can probably last longer than the EU or Eastern European governments). I agree with that assessment. Maybe they can make it 3-4 years, but certainly no more. So in order to believe the FED's predictions and stated reasoning are honest (same with ECB) you have to believe that somehow it escaped the attention of these finance industry 4, 5 and 6 decade veterans that this would cause a financial disaster worldwide. I find it hard to believe that these people are this stupid. I also do not believe the FED would destroy the government it's part of. So I present to you: they are lying. They are lying about their reasoning, they are lying about their models, they are lying about their predictions. I understand why they're lying, but they're still lying. They are lying about the CPI too. European inflation measures are similar, as they directly influence pension increases, and "surprisingly" they're very low. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yelle... [2] https://mises.org/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/ffr%20ffs%20_0.jpg?itok=BMkl6NOU https://mises.org/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/publ... http://www.investmentoffice.com/show_image.php?file_id=2151 http://www.investmentoffice.com/show_image.php?file_id=2151 http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/09/28/Photos/NS/MW-EW768_FEDDBI_20160928103202_NS.jpg?uuid=529d187a-8588-11e6-87d3-00137241c023 http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/09/28/Photos/NS/M...

StanislavPetrov 9y ago
>So I present to you: they are lying. They are lying about their reasoning, they are lying about their models, they are lying about their predictions. I understand why they're lying, but they're still lying. Some are no doubt lying, but never underestimate one's ability to delude themself.
linkregister 9y ago
Your argument about the so-called certainty of the Fed Chair and the other directors is disingenuous and not supported by the links you provided. Link #1: She talks back this assertion in the very next sentence! She says she is probably exaggerating, but she has good reason to think there won't be another major crash of that magnitude, provided there are [list of conditions]. Furthermore, she at no point takes credit for this achievement during the interview. Link #2: Yellen gets asked why she doesn't raise rates all the time. Far from unwarranted certainty, she admits that she expected the economy to to better, doesn't know why it hasn't, and has therefore revised predictions of when the rates will be raised! Any consumer of financial news over the past 4 years should be familiar with this. The fact you omit this is highly disingenuous. The very last link summarizes my position pretty well. The experts, who admit that things can be a "mystery," change their minds and models based off of reality. Is that not humble enough for you? I am curious why you continue to vigorously assert a view that you have failed to demonstrate. What is your personal connection to this, and why do you pursue it?
- candiodari 9y ago
  > Link #2: Yellen gets asked why she doesn't raise rates all the time. Far from unwarranted certainty, she admits that she expected the economy to to better, doesn't know why it hasn't, and has therefore revised predictions of when the rates will be raised! Any consumer of financial news over the past 4 years should be familiar with this. The fact you omit this is highly disingenuous. I agree with you, to some extent. Yellen is actually one of the more humble central bankers. Not much competition there, of course. But I would still classify what she says, and doubly so what she does, as unwarranted certainty. The net effect of what she does, incidentally, is an unprecedented redistribution of wealth in the US economy (and elsewhere) from the poor to the rich. The fact that she does this things like this while being unsure about the consequences ... And of course, she is like all other central bankers. As you say, she doubts whether what she's doing is the right thing. So what does this person do when she doubts the effects of her unprecedented policies ? Why, more of them, of course. She errs on the side of making the rich richer yet again and sabotaging the poor even more ... Let's just be glad this woman is not a pilot. My personal connection to this is that, like all central bankers, Yellen is effectively spending (sorry "loaning") my own money back to me, enriching a lot of people in the process. Needless to say, I feel less than ecstatic. And please don't make the central banker's argument (that it's to "save me from an economic crisis that didn't happen", ie. a counterfactual argument. It's about as realistic and useful as the quintessential example of such an argument "why didn't they just kill Hitler/Stalin/...") And, yes, I understand why she can't be really humble.

StanislavPetrov 9y ago

>So I present to you: they are lying. They are lying about their reasoning, they are lying about their models, they are lying about their predictions. I understand why they're lying, but they're still lying. Some are no doubt lying, but never underestimate one's ability to delude themself.

linkregister 9y ago

Your argument about the so-called certainty of the Fed Chair and the other directors is disingenuous and not supported by the links you provided. Link #1: She talks back this assertion in the very next sentence! She says she is probably exaggerating, but she has good reason to think there won't be another major crash of that magnitude, provided there are [list of conditions]. Furthermore, she at no point takes credit for this achievement during the interview. Link #2: Yellen gets asked why she doesn't raise rates all the time. Far from unwarranted certainty, she admits that she expected the economy to to better, doesn't know why it hasn't, and has therefore revised predictions of when the rates will be raised! Any consumer of financial news over the past 4 years should be familiar with this. The fact you omit this is highly disingenuous. The very last link summarizes my position pretty well. The experts, who admit that things can be a "mystery," change their minds and models based off of reality. Is that not humble enough for you? I am curious why you continue to vigorously assert a view that you have failed to demonstrate. What is your personal connection to this, and why do you pursue it?

candiodari 9y ago
> Link #2: Yellen gets asked why she doesn't raise rates all the time. Far from unwarranted certainty, she admits that she expected the economy to to better, doesn't know why it hasn't, and has therefore revised predictions of when the rates will be raised! Any consumer of financial news over the past 4 years should be familiar with this. The fact you omit this is highly disingenuous. I agree with you, to some extent. Yellen is actually one of the more humble central bankers. Not much competition there, of course. But I would still classify what she says, and doubly so what she does, as unwarranted certainty. The net effect of what she does, incidentally, is an unprecedented redistribution of wealth in the US economy (and elsewhere) from the poor to the rich. The fact that she does this things like this while being unsure about the consequences ... And of course, she is like all other central bankers. As you say, she doubts whether what she's doing is the right thing. So what does this person do when she doubts the effects of her unprecedented policies ? Why, more of them, of course. She errs on the side of making the rich richer yet again and sabotaging the poor even more ... Let's just be glad this woman is not a pilot. My personal connection to this is that, like all central bankers, Yellen is effectively spending (sorry "loaning") my own money back to me, enriching a lot of people in the process. Needless to say, I feel less than ecstatic. And please don't make the central banker's argument (that it's to "save me from an economic crisis that didn't happen", ie. a counterfactual argument. It's about as realistic and useful as the quintessential example of such an argument "why didn't they just kill Hitler/Stalin/...") And, yes, I understand why she can't be really humble.